Yesterday saw gold sell off steadily after an initial boost following the return of Chinese buyers at the open on Thursday, the selling accelerating after the release of better than expected weekly jobless claims and retail sales from the US.

Gold found support at 1375 and moved higher, making a lower high at 1388 before resuming the decline this morning to currently trade around 1380.

The triangle consolidation pattern, in our view not a "double bottom" as many rather optimistic online commentators have written, continues to unfold and we expect another sharp sell off once the triangle resolves to the downside.  There is a chance (approximately 30%) that the triangle will turn out to be a reversal pattern, though we do not expect this to be the case.

The dollar and equities have started to move upwards again after recent declines, putting pressure on gold.  Oil is also moving higher and is approaching key resistance in the $98 area - a break of this critical zone will see a powerful rally in oil, with a target of $106.  This bears watching, as a surging oil price may help gold, although the correlation between oil and gold has been weak recently.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the triangle consolidation that is forming and our strategy for our current trade.

Gold jumped higher in quiet trading yesterday afternoon on the back of a weakening dollar, making a high for the day of 1395, though could not sustain the gains and has this morning fallen back to 1385.

It is very concerning for the bulls that in the face of sustained dollar weakness and a correction in equities, gold cannot move higher, with any rallies being quickly sold into.

In fact, since the dollar has fallen from highs above 84.50 down to its current level at 80.85, a fall of over 4%, gold has not been able to rally at all.  With the S&P again testing 1600 and oil showing some strength, the conditions would appear to be ideal for gold to move higher - the fact that the price is falling is ominous for the bulls in the short term.

Gold remains stuck in the down trend that has been in play since October last year and is showing no signs yet of a bottom - the "double bottom" that many online commentators have claimed is forming looks more like a triangle consolidation pattern before further declines to us, with the price action since the 1338 low on 20 May forming what looks to be a classic "bear flag".

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading action in more detail and our price targets for gold in the short term.

The sell off in gold continued yesterday, with gold making a low of 1366 before rebounding to close around 1380.  The market looks very weak technically and, although we may see a mild bounce over the next day or two as Chinese buyers return to boost physical demand, the down trend remains in force and prices are likely to continue to move lower.

We anticipate a retest of 1338/1321 - it is likely that these levels of support will fail and we will see another sharp drop in the price of gold, although this drop may be short lived.

Equities and oil are moving higher and the dollar is stabilising after falling sharply in recent trading sessions.  The fact that gold has not risen as the dollar has declined from 84 to 81 is very concerning for the bulls and a clear indication that the down trend remains the dominant force at this time.

A bounce in the dollar, coupled with a renewed rally in equities during the weakest part of the year for gold prices, suggests that our analysis for near term weakness is the most likely scenario.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold moved in a narrow range yesterday in quiet trading, consolidating near Friday's lows, price action that often presages further weakness.

This morning, gold has resumed the decline, dropping as low as 1371 in early trading and looking set for a return to 1338 or, more likely in our view, 1321.

We expect gold to breach key resistance at 1321 and make a new low, with 1280 and 1250 likely targets.  An extended sell off to 1150 is possible, though less likely, and would be seen as an excellent buying opportunity should it transpire.

We continue to note that the recent decline has not been driven by dollar strength at all, a very worrying sign for the bulls.  The dollar has sold off hard since failing to break key resistance at 81.50, however this has not translated into a rally in gold.

The recent weakness in equities has not seen any movement back into gold, though the S&P has bounced off our target of 1600 and looks to be resuming the uptrend.  A break of 1600 may well see some capital return to gold, as this would suggest a deeper decline in stocks.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the rece

Our suspicions regarding the dollar-driven break out of the triangle on Thursday were well founded, as gold drifted back towards 1400 during early trading on Friday.

The Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) number came in slightly above expectations at 175,000 - this was enough to see stocks rocket higher and gold sell off hard, falling as low as 1377 and closing near the lows of the day.

This meant that a bearish "shooting star" candlestick formed on the weekly chart and the consolidation triangle has now decisively been broken to the downside.

We expect a retest of 1338/1321 now as a minimum, though the action of the past few weeks suggests to us that these levels will not hold and we will shortly see new lows in gold.

It was interesting to note that the dollar did not surge higher following the NFP number and therefore gold's decline was not driven by movements in the dollar to any noticeable extent.

Oil surged higher with stocks on Friday, breaking out of the recent down trend and bringing a test of $98 back into view.

Today's video for subscribers looks at our recent trades in detail and our outline strategy for our next trade.

Gold surged up through the upper boundary of the triangle consolidation yesterday, however the move was entirely driven by a collapsing dollar (down 1.50 at one point) and as such can be viewed with suspicion.

After hitting a high of 1423 yesterday afternoon, gold has fallen back and is currently trading around 1410.  We expect the market to be range bound until the release of the Non Farms Payroll (NFP) number at 1.30pm UK time.

The dollar is stabilising around 81.50 after yesterday's huge falls, though the failure to break above 84 is starting to look more significant.

Oil has risen to $95 a barrel, though the short term down trend remains intact until or unless we break $96 convincingly.

All eyes are on the NFP data release this afternoon - the "official" expectation is for 165-170k new jobs added, thoguh we suspect the "real" expectation is more like 150k.  Any higher will be bearish for gold, and lower will be bullish.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading action in more detail.

Gold traded in a narrow range yesterday, within the triangle consolidation we identified previously, moving as high as 1410 and as low as 1395 during the trading session.

A weaker than expected ADP jobs report gave gold a boost early in the NY trading session, though gold quickly fell back after hitting 1410 to close around 1400.

We expect the quiet choppy trading to continue until the release of the keenly anticipated Non Farms Payroll (NFP) number tomorrow, with the only data released today being the weekly jobless claims that rarely sees much of a reaction from the markets.

Expectations for the NFP number may have been slightly tempered following the release of the ADP number yesterday, though the two numbers do not have a particularly strong correlation.

The consensus forecast is for 172,000 jobs to have been added to the US economy in May - a stronger number will see gold sell off hard, though a much weaker number could provide gold with a boost, even if this turns out to be a temporary rise

The dollar continues to exhibit weakness after failing to break through key resistance at 84 and has fallen through near term support at 82.5.  If this level is not regained quickly, the dollar could see further selling in the short term.

Oil is trading slightly higher at 94.30, though is in a clear downtrend channel with a series of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the triangle consolidation in more detail and our thoughts regarding the NFP number.

Gold sold off steadily yesterday after failing to better Monday's high of 1417 overnight.  The price dipped as low as 1389 before recovering slightly to close around 1400 and this morning is trading around this level.

Gold is forming a triangle pattern on the 4 hour chart, with a series of lower highs and higher lows.  Triangles are consolidation patterns and usually resolve with a break in the direction of the prevailing trend.  Less often, they are reversal patterns and see a break in the opposite direction, though either way, the break out of the triangle should provide a significant trending move.

The odds therefore favour a break to the downside as the prevailing trend is clearly down - the apex of the triangle will arrive on Friday, so we will get a resolution one way or another on or before Friday.  Perhaps the release of the Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) number at 1.30pm UK time Friday will be the catalyst for the break, however in our opinion it is likely to occur before this.

There is a slew of data released today that could move the markets, including employment and productivity data,  factory orders and the Fed's Beige Book.

The dollar has stabilised above 82.50, a move higher will see gold under pressure again, whilst oil has moved higher, giving gold a boost.   

Equities sold off again yesterday, though appear to be attempting to form a base for the next rally leg.  Any renewed strength in stocks will put pressure on gold, as the diversion of funds away from gold into the stock market has been a bearish factor for the yellow metal in 2013.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the triangle pattern in more detail and our a discussion of our strategy for the NFP data release on Friday.

After printing a "bearish engulfing" candlestick on Friday, we expected to see further selling yesterday, however following a quiet morning of range bound trading, the market jumped $15 higher on the release of a much weaker than expected manufacturing ISM number.

Gold climbed as high as 1417, pushed higher by a surging oil price and collapsing dollar, however the rally was short lived and the yellow metal fell back to close around 1410.

This morning, gold is under pressure as the dollar bounces back from support in the 82.50 area and oil gives back some of yesterday's gains.  Oil is forming a series of lower highs and lower lows and appears to be headed below $90.

Equities have halted their corrective decline, though we would like to see a test of 1600 before the rally resumes to take the S&P to new highs.

As we get closer to Friday, traders will begin to focus on the release of the Non Farms Payroll (NFP) number and the potential impact that it will have on markets.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy or our current trade.

After hitting a high just below 1422 overnight on Thursday, gold sold off steadily all day Friday, falling below 1400 and closing near the lows of the day at 1388.

The price action saw a "bearish engulfing" candlestick formed on the daily chart which portends lower prices and suggests that the rally above 1400 was a false breakout.

We therefore expect lower prices this week, with the possibility of a retest of 1322 as the bears have grasped back control from the bulls.

For the recent gold rally to get back on track, the price needs to quickly get back above the 20 DMA as a minimum and then move beyond the 1422 high from Thursday night.

June is historically a very weak month for gold, with the June to August period often referred to as the "summer doldrums". In the past, the price has tended to drift along at best and sell off steadily all summer at worst.

Equities tumbled on Friday, which should have been bullish for gold - it is worrying that the yellow metal didn't respond more positively to the sell off in stocks.  We expect the S&P to test 1600 before continuing its recent strong performance.

The dollar arrested its recent decline at the support area around 83, whilst oil tumbled below $92 a barrel.  The action in both of these markets contributed to the sell off in gold.

Today's video for subscribers looks at Friday's action and the "bearish engulfing" candlestick in more detail and our strategy for our current trade.