Gold has reversed sharply after breaking through resistance at 1333 last week, suggesting that the breakout was a fake move and significantly increasing the likelihood of another failure to break the 65 week MA.
This would be a very bearish development, just as a successful break above the 65 week MA would be viewed as extremely bullish. If the bulls cannot make a stand here and recapture 1333 very shortly, the bearish scenario becomes our favoured outcome.
Equities are up mildly and the dollar is flat, as is oil - we can therefore conclude that the sell off in gold is not being driven by outside markets.
Support can be found at 1300-1301, 1289, 1285, 1263, 1257-1260, 1250-1252, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term - however the break below 1250 seems to have been invalidated, indicating that a return to 1180 is now less likely.
Resistance can be found at 1310, 1318-1322, 1325-1326, 1333-1335, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435. We are now attempting to break through the key 65 week MA - if the breakout is successful, this would suggest that the intermediate down trend is at an end and higher prices are ahead, though a failure would be very bearish.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.
This would be a very bearish development, just as a successful break above the 65 week MA would be viewed as extremely bullish. If the bulls cannot make a stand here and recapture 1333 very shortly, the bearish scenario becomes our favoured outcome.
Equities are up mildly and the dollar is flat, as is oil - we can therefore conclude that the sell off in gold is not being driven by outside markets.
Support can be found at 1300-1301, 1289, 1285, 1263, 1257-1260, 1250-1252, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term - however the break below 1250 seems to have been invalidated, indicating that a return to 1180 is now less likely.
Resistance can be found at 1310, 1318-1322, 1325-1326, 1333-1335, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435. We are now attempting to break through the key 65 week MA - if the breakout is successful, this would suggest that the intermediate down trend is at an end and higher prices are ahead, though a failure would be very bearish.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.