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Gold Market Update - 16th Jul

16/7/2014

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Gold fell sharply again yesterday, crashing through 1300 before making a low at 1292, being the 50% retracement of the June rally and also the level of the 50 DMA.  This morning, gold is attempting a rally off this support zone, climibing as high as 1299 so far.

It is not surprising that the market has found support here and a clear 5 wave count can be formed on the 4 hour chart, so a corrective move higher is likely over the next day or two.

Equities remain the favoured asset class, with the S&P and Dow at all time highs.  The dollar has rallied impressively after briefly dropping below 80 on 1 July, with the dollar now trading above 80.50.

Oil has tumbled below $100 a barrel again, though formed a "hammer" candlestick on the daily chart yesterday after a sustained decline, suggesting a low may be in.

Support can be found at 1292, 1285, 1263, 1257-1260, 1250-1252, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term - however the break below 1250 seems to have been invalidated, indicating that a return to 1180 is now less likely.

Resistance can be found at 1299-1301, 1310, 1314, 1318-1322, 1325-1326, 1333-1335, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435.  We appear to be wtinessing a second failure to break through the key 65 week MA - this would suggest that the intermediate down trend is intact and a retest of 1240 and possibly 1180 is likely.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.
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