After hitting a 4 month low at 1225 in early trading yesterday, gold recovered to close the day slightly up at 1253. The price remains within a well established down trend, though is currently at the upper boundary of the channel, with the 200 hour MA coming in at 1263 providing further resistance.
We expect the down trend to continue through December, though it is worth noting that the dollar is struggling to regain 81 - further dollar weakness could give gold a boost and a break of the down trend channel would suggest a move back up towards 1300 was likely.
Equities remain strong, with December a historically favourable month for the stock market, whilst the continued weakness in oil suggests inflation is not a concern at all in the short/medium term.
The trading will start to quieten down as we approach Thanksgiving on Thursday, with many traders starting to leave their desks on Wednesday afternoon. A word of caution - the thin trading conditions can lead to exaggerated moves in the markets, particularly if any unexpected news events transpire.
Support can be found at 1225, 1220, 1238, 1250, 1207-1210, 1200 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.
Resistance can be found at 1260, 1270, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295. A break above 1295 would suggest an end to the downtrend, though it would take a break of 1360 to confirm this was the case.
Today's video for subscribers looks at yesterday's trading and the down trend channel in more detail.
We expect the down trend to continue through December, though it is worth noting that the dollar is struggling to regain 81 - further dollar weakness could give gold a boost and a break of the down trend channel would suggest a move back up towards 1300 was likely.
Equities remain strong, with December a historically favourable month for the stock market, whilst the continued weakness in oil suggests inflation is not a concern at all in the short/medium term.
The trading will start to quieten down as we approach Thanksgiving on Thursday, with many traders starting to leave their desks on Wednesday afternoon. A word of caution - the thin trading conditions can lead to exaggerated moves in the markets, particularly if any unexpected news events transpire.
Support can be found at 1225, 1220, 1238, 1250, 1207-1210, 1200 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.
Resistance can be found at 1260, 1270, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295. A break above 1295 would suggest an end to the downtrend, though it would take a break of 1360 to confirm this was the case.
Today's video for subscribers looks at yesterday's trading and the down trend channel in more detail.
