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Gold Market Update - 5th Feb

5/2/2014

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The battle between the bulls and bears for supremacy in gold continues, with the bears forming a series of lower highs on the 4 hour chart and the bulls continuing to move the price higher within the up trend channel.

Gold is struggling to move higher, with every rally seen as an opportunity to sell, however the price is refusing to drop below the 200 hour MA and the 20 DMA as it slowly moves higher.

We suspect the market will break to the downside eventualyl and the price will drop back to test 1180 within a month - the "flat bottomed triangle" on the weekly chart is a reliable continuation pattern and suggests a decline to 1000-1050 in the first half of the year.

Equities are struggling to arrest their recent decline, boosting gold's investment allure, however the dollar is holding above the key 81 level, capping rallies.

Support can be found at 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200, 1188-1190 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1268-1272, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295.  Holding support at 1250 and a subsequent break above 1279 would suggest an end to the intermediate term down trend, though it would take a close above 1300 to confirm a more significant rally was developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

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