After closing 2013 with a massive 28% annual loss, gold has made a spirited start to 2014, rising off key support at 1180 to currently trade near the 50 DMA at 1250.
However, we do not expect this strong performance to last, as the headwinds that affected gold so adversely last year remain - strong equities, rising interest rates, an improving global economy led by the US, tapering of quantitative easing and little or no inflation.
It is our expectation that after this rally fizzles out, gold will fall back and retest 1180, this time breaching the key support level and tumbling all the way down to 1000-1050 before finding strong support.
Equities remain at all time highs, the dollar is testing the key 81 level and oil remains subdued - gold wil struggle to move much higher in this environment.
Support can be found at 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1214, 1210, 1200, 1190, 1188 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.
Resistance can be found at 1246, 1250-1255, 1268-1270, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295. A break above 1268 would suggest an end to the short term down trend, though it would take a break of 1300 to suggest a more significant rally was developing.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading action in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.
However, we do not expect this strong performance to last, as the headwinds that affected gold so adversely last year remain - strong equities, rising interest rates, an improving global economy led by the US, tapering of quantitative easing and little or no inflation.
It is our expectation that after this rally fizzles out, gold will fall back and retest 1180, this time breaching the key support level and tumbling all the way down to 1000-1050 before finding strong support.
Equities remain at all time highs, the dollar is testing the key 81 level and oil remains subdued - gold wil struggle to move much higher in this environment.
Support can be found at 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1214, 1210, 1200, 1190, 1188 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.
Resistance can be found at 1246, 1250-1255, 1268-1270, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295. A break above 1268 would suggest an end to the short term down trend, though it would take a break of 1300 to suggest a more significant rally was developing.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading action in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.