LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH/NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we said we thought the consolidation had a little bit more to go and were looking for a test of the 1780-90 area at the beginning of December in an ideal scenario.  This level coincides with the 200 day Moving Average, and is also previous resistance from early summer 2020, meaning it is now an area of strong support.

Since then, gold has fallen to the bottom boundary of the complex consolidation pattern that has been in place since August and is in danger of breaking to the downside.  This is just what we would like to see for a sell off down to our target over the next couple of weeks.

On a shorter time scale, gold attempted to rally after last Tuesday’s dramatic $100 sell off on the news of a COVID-19 vaccine being announced by Pfizer, however it was only able to rally feebly to the 1900 area before encountering resistance and selling off again.  We are still watching strong support at 1850 as the key area.  A break of this support is likely to see a sharp sell off towards our target of 1780-90.

Gold is now trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1901, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1922. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains above the 200 day Moving Average which as noted above is currently at 1792.

Equities continue to surge higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  Since jumping initially on the vaccine news, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs, particularly as further good news on vaccines is now emerging on a regular basis.

The Dow is currently at 29,320, just 2.5% below the all time high of 30,093, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,562, just 3% below the all time high of 3,674 set on Tuesday.

Following equities, oil sold off sharply in the first quarter of 2020, at one point trading into negative territory.  Prices have recovered strongly since then and are now trading at around $42 a barrel with a strong bullish bias on the charts.  We expect oil prices to recover further over the coming months, our initial target is $50 in the short term.

In gold, support can be found at 1848-50, 1830, 1817 and 1780.  The recent wedge consolidation pattern is bullish for gold in the medium term time frame and suggests a move towards 2,100 early next year is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1884, 1888-90, 1900, 1909, 1917, 1922, 1932, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH/NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

Since making an all time high of 2077 in August, gold has been in a complex consolidation pattern that has taken the heat out of the price and seen the overbought indicators flashing across the board come back to neutral readings in anticipation of the next rally.

We think here is a still a little way to go with this consolidation, though it is possible that the macro scale rally can resume in December/January, traditionally a strong time of year for gold prices.

Ideally, we would like to see a test of the 200 day Moving Average, currently at 1784, before the rally resumes in earnest.  This level also coincides with previous resistance from early summer 2020 and is now an area of strong support.

On a shorter time scale, gold sold off dramatically on Tuesday on the news of a COVID-19 vaccine being announced by Pfizer and so far has only recovered a fraction of those losses.  The choppy nature of the action and lack of buying conviction suggests to us that further downside is likely, with strong support at 1850 the key area to watch.  A break of this support is likely to see a sharp sell off towards our target of 1780.

Gold is now trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1909, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1888. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains above the 200 day Moving Average which as noted above is currently at 1784.

Equities continue to surge higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  Since jumping initially on the vaccine news, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs.
​
The Dow is currently at 29,200, less than 3% below the all time high of 30,093, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,557, just 3% below the all time high of 3,674 set on Tuesday.

Following equities, oil sold off sharply in the first quarter of 2020, at one point trading into negative territory.  Prices have recovered strongly since then and are now trading at around $42 a barrel with a strong bullish bias on the charts.  We expect oil prices to recover further over the coming months, our initial target is $50 in the short term.

In gold, support can be found at 1857, 1848, 1830, 1817 and 1780.  The recent wedge consolidation pattern is bullish for gold in the medium term time frame and suggests a move towards 2,100 early next year is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1884, 1888-90, 1900, 1909, 1917, 1932, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH

In our last update in January, we stated that a break of the upper boundary of the triangle at 1295 would likely see a rise to 1315-1320 in the first instance, with an extended rally towards and beyond 1350 a distinct possibility.  Gold did break out of the triangle and proceeded to rally throughout the rest of January and February, making a top at 1346 on 20 February.

Since the February top, gold has corrected back to 1280, before moving higher again into a “lower high” of 1323.  This large consolidation pattern suggests further upside towards and beyond 1365 in the medium term.  A break below 1280 would suggest a return to the 200 day MA at 1248.

Gold is now trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1308, though the price remains above the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1287. This level is providing support in the short term.  The price remains well above the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1248.

After making an all time high at the start of October, equities have corrected in a volatile and choppy zig zag pattern, with the Dow falling as low as 21,600 before finding support.  Since then the Dow has powered higher and is currently at 25,815, just 4% below the all time high of 26,967, and the S&P 500 is currently at 2,826, also just 4% lower than the all time high of 2,941.

Following equities, oil sold off sharply in the final quarter of 2018, at one point trading as low as $42 a barrel, over 45% lower than the 2018 highs around $77 a barrel.  This dramatic sell off has been reversed to some extent with a strong 2019 rally taking the price back up to $60 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1287, 1280, 1276, 1265, 1250, 1244, 1228, 1216, 1210, 1201, 1196, 1192, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent consolidation patterns is bullish for gold in the medium term time frame and suggests a move towards resistance at 1365 later in the year is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1300-1302, 1305, 1310-1312, 1316-1320, 1325-1327, 1333, 1346, 1355-65.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                         BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BULLISH

In our last update in early December, we stated that as we had seen a break above 1216 and a successful retest of that level as support, we were likely to see gold rally towards the high 1200s into the year end. Gold did indeed rally strongly throughout December, making a high just below 1300 at the start of January 2019.

Gold has formed a triangle consolidation pattern over the past two weeks, suggesting a continuation of the rally is likely with a breakout of the triangle.  The upper boundary of the triangle is around 1295 and a break of this level will likely see a rise to 1315-1320 in the first instance, though an extended rally towards and beyond 1350 cannot be ruled out.  Much of the rise is due to dollar weakness and the dollar index chart suggests further downside and a continuation of the recent trend.

Gold is now trading well above both the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1241, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1229. The 50 day Moving Average is rising sharply in a bullish posture and the 89 day Moving Average is also rising in parallel.  The price has also broken the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1249 and is about to be crossed by the 50 day Moving Average.

After making an all time high at the start of October, equities have corrected in a volatile and choppy zig zag pattern, with the Dow falling as low as 21,600 before finding support and the S&P 500 falling over 600 points to a low of 2,341 before recovering.

The Dow is currently at 23,880, over 11% below the all time high of 26,967, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,583, over 12% lower than the all time high of 2,941.

Following equities, oil has sold off sharply and trading as low as $42 a barrel, over 45% lower than the 2018 highs around $77 a barrel.  This dramatic sell off is being taken by some as a portent to a global economic slowdown, though the short term effect on inflation will take the pressure off central banks contemplating further interest rate rises.

Support can be found at 1286, 1276, 1265, 1250, 1244, 1228, 1216, 1210, 1201, 1196, 1192, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1296-98, 1302, 1310, 1316-1320, 1326, 1344, 1355-65.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                         BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BULLISH

Since our last update where we observed that gold had broken out of the narrow trading range that contained the price during September and had remained above 1215 since the breakout.

We also stated that as we had a break above 1216 and a successful retest, we were likely to see gold rally towards the high 1200s into the year end.  Since then gold retraced as far as 1197 before rallying strongly back above 1215 again and has continued to move steadily higher since then.  The price is currently at 1237, after finding resistance at the downtrend resistance line at 1241.

Gold is now trading above both the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1218, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1209. The 50 day Moving Average has continued to rise in a bullish posture and the 89 day Moving Average is also turning upwards.  The price is still yet to break the 200 day Moving Average, which is currently at 1257 and still moving steadily lower.

After making an all time high at the start of October, equities have corrected in a volatile and choppy zigzag pattern, with the Dow falling as low as 24,100 before finding support and the S&P 500 falling over 300 points to a low of 2,627 before recovering.

The Dow is currently at 25,150, some 1,800 points below the all time high of 26,967, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,715, over 200 points lower than the all time high of 2,941.

Following equities, oil has sold off sharply - at one point trading below $50 a barrel - over $27 lower than the recent highs around $77 a barrel.  This dramatic 35% sell off is being taken by some as a portent to a global economic slowdown, though the short term effect on inflation will take the pressure off central banks contemplating further interest rate rises.

Support can be found at 1233, 1228, 1216, 1210, 1201, 1196, 1192, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term time frame and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1241-1243, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH

Since our last update, gold has broken out of the narrow trading range between 1181 and 1212 that contained the price during September.  On 11 October, gold powered higher, smashing through the top of the trading range, moving as high as 1243 and has stayed above 1215 since then.

In our last update, we stated that our view was that the downside presents the most likely path into year end, though a break above 1216 would suggest that a short term low has been made in gold.  As we have now had this break above 1216 and a number of successful retests of the top of the previous trading range, we are likely to see gold rally towards the high 1200s into the year end.  However, a reversal and break below 1212 would suggest another test of 1180 - if this level were to fail, a swift return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.

Gold is now trading above both the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1205, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1214. The 50 day moving Average has curled upwards in a bullish posture, however the price remains below the 200 day Moving Average at 1272.

After making an all time high at the time of our last update, equities have corrected sharply, with the Dow down over 2,000 points from the highs and the S&P 500 falling 300 points.

The Dow is currently at 24,700, over 2,000 points below the all time high of 26,967, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,665, almost 300 points lower than the all time high of 2,941.

Following equities, oil has sold off sharply and is currently trading around $66 a barrel, over $10 lower than the recent highs around $77 a barrel, moving in lock step with equities.

Support can be found at 1220, 1215, 1209, 1201, 1192, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1233, 1243, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 NEUTRAL

Since our last update, gold has continued to trade within a relatively tight range between 1181 and 1212.  In our last update we suggested that there were several signs of weakness inherent in the gold market and that a retest of support at 1182 was a probable outcome in the short term.

Gold did indeed retest 1182 - the low being 1181 - and since then has bounced back up towards the top of the trading range just above 1200.  It is still in the balance as to where gold goes next – the bulls will see the ability of the market to hold 1180 in the short term as positive, whilst the bears will equally validly see the inability of gold to bounce in any meaningful way after a sharp decline from the mid-1300s to 1160 as indicative of further declines to come.

We remain of the view that the downside presents the most likely path into year end, though a break above 1216 would suggest that a short term low has been made in gold.  A break below 1180 would suggest another test of 1160 - if this level were to fail, a swift return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.

Gold has recently broken above the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1200 - though not convincingly - and remains below the 200 day Moving Average at 1281 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1226.

We have stated several times in our previous reports that support for equities remains strong and we expected new all time highs later this year.  After making yet another all time high this week, the Dow has consolidated just above 26,600, with the S&P 500 taking stock just above the 2,900 level.

The Dow is currently at 26,660, just below the all time high of 26,967, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,905, just shy of the all time high of 2,941.

Oil has resumed its powerful rally, found short term resistance just below $77 a barrel and has retraced slightly to currently trading around $74.50 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1195, 1192, 1189, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1207, 1214, 1218, 1233, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 NEUTRAL/BEARISH

We still consider that there are several signs of weakness inherent in the gold market at the moment and are still of the view that a retest of support at 1182 is a probable outcome in the short term.

Gold has continued to oscillate in a narrow $25 range between 1187 and 1212 with a slight downward bias for the past month and considering the sharp decline from April to August, this does not suggest that a bottom is in place but rather that the price is consolidating near lows before another leg down.

A break above 1216 would suggest that a short term low has been made in gold and a break below 1175 would suggest another test of 1160 - if this level were to fail, a swift return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.

At present, the price still remains below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed sharply lower.  Gold did test the 50 day Moving Average at 1212, though this level was strongly rejected.  The 50 day Moving Average is therefore strong resistance and is currently at 1208.  The 200 day Moving Average is currently at 1284 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1241.

We have stated several times in our previous reports that support for equities remains strong and we expected new all time highs later this year.  After making yet another all time high last week, this week the Dow has consolidated just above 26,100, with the S&P 500 taking stock just below the 2,900 level.

The Dow is currently at 26,126, just below the all time high of 26,223, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,895, just shy of the all time high of 2,916.

Oil found some resistance just below $71 a barrel and has retraced slightly to currently trading around $69.50 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1195, 1192, 1189, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1204, 1207, 1214, 1218, 1233, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                         BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                NEUTRAL

In our last update, we commented that there were several signs of weakness inherent in the gold market at the moment and we suggested that a retest of support at 1182 now seemed likely.

​Since that update, gold has bounced around in a narrow $20 range between 1189 and 1209 with a slight downward bias, however our 1182 target has not yet been reached.

A break below 1175 would suggest another test of 1160 and if this level were to fail, a return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.

At present, the price still remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed sharply lower.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1216 and will provide initial resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1287 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1249.

We have stated several times in our previous reports that support for equities remains strong and we expected new all time highs later this year.  After making new all time highs last week, this week the Dow has consolidated just below 26,000, as has the S&P 500 taking stock just below the 2,900 level.  This does not look like the end of the rally.

The Dow is currently at 25,950, just below the all time high of 26,167, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,877, just shy of the all time high of 2,916.

Oil found some resistance just below $71 a barrel and has retraced slightly to currently trading around $67 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1189, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term time frame and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1207, 1214, 1218, 1233, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

​LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 NEUTRAL

In our last update we commented that, following the rally in the gold price after finding short term support at the 2017 down trend line at 1160, we suspected that the rebound had some legs left with 1220 a potential target level.

As it turned out, the rally did have a bit further to go, however gold didn’t quite make 1220, finding resistance at one of our other highlighted potential resistance levels of 1214 before turning lower again.

This is a bearish development, demonstrating the weakness inherent in the gold market at the moment and suggesting that a retest of support at 1182 now seems likely.  A break below 1175 would suggest another test of 1160 and if this level were to fail, a return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.

At present, the price still remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed sharply lower.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1225 and will provide initial resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1290 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1256.

We have stated several times in our previous reports that support for equities remains strong and we expected new all time highs later this year.  This week, the Dow has made yet another new all time highs, breaking above 26,000 for the first time, as has the S&P 500 hitting the 2,900 level for the first time ever.

The Dow is currently at 26,050, just below the new all time high of 26,167, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,907, just shy of the new all time high of 2,916 hit yesterday.

Oil is continuing to bounce hard after a correction to the recent strong rally and is currently trading around $70 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1195, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1207, 1214, 1218, 1233, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.