LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we noted that gold had successfully retested the 200 day Moving Average and bounced off this key level, though the gains were being restricted by a resurgent dollar and continuing equity market strength.  We also noted that the most recent high at 1875 coincided with the 89 day Moving Average.

In summary, gold was stuck in a trading range with the 89 day Moving Average at the top and the 200 day moving Average at the bottom.  A break out of this range would suggest a large move in the direction of the break.

Since then, gold sold off sharply on 4 February and broke decisively through the 200 day Moving Average, falling as low as 1785 before finding support and moving higher, notably breaking back through the 200 day Moving Average a couple of days later.  This is a bullish development and gold is now poised to test the upper boundary of the trading range and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1869.

A break of this level will suggest further strength and a retest of 1900, however we would advise caution as the Chinese New Year holiday is this Friday and for the following week Chinese gold buyers will be absent.  This period is always precarious for gold as the bears often use this opportunity attempt to force the price lower.

As stated above, the 89 day Moving Average is now at 1869, with the 50 day Moving Average at 1851.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1830 is the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After a shallow pullback at the end of January, the Dow is currently at 31500 after making a new all time high today and the S&P 500 is currently at 3930, just below the all-time high of 3935 achieved earlier today.

Oil prices continue to recover strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading well above our price target of $55 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $55 has been hit and we are now targeting $60.

In gold, support can be found at 1833, 1820, 1800, 1785, 1765, 1750 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,150 early this year is likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1875, 1884, 1900, 1930, 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we noted that the gold price was attempting to stabilise above the key 200 day Moving Average and trying to move higher from this level of support and a tentative uptrend channel had been formed on a very short term time frame.

We also noted that the bounce in the dollar would need to be watched carefully, as further strength could cap any rallies.  It was also noted that a decisive break of this key support level will likely see a return to the 1770 region and potentially a test of the bottom of the downtrend channel at 1700.

Since then, gold has retested the 200 day Moving Average and bounced again, though the gains have been restricted due to a resurgent dollar and continuing equity market strength.  The high over the period has been 1875, tested twice and also coinciding with the 89 day Moving Average.

In summary, gold has been stuck in a range with the 89 day Moving Average at the top and the 200 day moving Average at the bottom.  A break out of this range would suggest a large move in the direction of the break.

The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1873 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1856.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1820 is now the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.

After a shallow pullback in the last week or so, the Dow is currently at 30737 and within striking distance of the all time high of 31259 set a month ago and the S&P 500 is currently at 3830, just below the all-time high of 3831 achieved last month.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading at $55 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $55 has been hit and we are now targeting $60.
​
In gold, support can be found at 1832, 1820, 1800, 1765, 1750 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               NEUTRAL/BULLISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we noted that gold had gapped higher at the opening of Asian markets in the New Year, with the price rising as high as 1963 and making a decisive break out of the consolidation triangle that we have been in since the August highs.  We also noted that the period up to the end of January is usually a strong period for gold and we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the rally through this period and into February 2021.

Since that initial burst higher, gold has reversed sharply and retested the key 200 day Moving Average at 1840, at one point actually breaking briefly below that level.  The price has now stabilised and is attempting to move higher from this level of support – a tentative uptrend channel has been formed on a very short term time frame, though the bounce in the dollar will need to be watched carefully, as further strength could see selling pressure return to gold and another test of the 200 day Moving Average.

It should be noted that a decisive break of this key support level will likely see a return to the 1770 region and potentially a test of the bottom of the downtrend channel at 1700.

Gold is now trading just below the shorter term 50 and 89 day Moving Averages and the bulls will need to reclaim these levels which are now short term resistance.  The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1884 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1866.  As stated above, the 200 day Moving Average at 1840 is now the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.

The Dow is currently at 31022 and within striking distance of the all time high of 31259 set a few days ago and the S&P 500 is currently at 3804, just below the new all-time high of 3831, achieved a few days ago.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading close to $54 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $55 is almost within touching distance.

In gold, support can be found at 1850, 1840, 1836, 1828, 1817, 1800, 1770 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1866, 1884, 1900, 1930, 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BULLISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we said that since testing support at the 50% retracement level at 1820, the price had rallied back up above the 1850 level and had the 50 day Moving Average in its sights once more.  We also said that a break of this level would open the way up to a move back to 1900 and beyond.

​We also noted that the second half of December until the end of January is usually a strong period for gold and we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the rally through this period and into February 2021.

We saw gold continue to grind higher throughout the second half of December and by the end of the year was poised to break out of the large consolidation triangle we have been in since the all time high in August 2020, with the price just above 1900.  As markets reopened in the Far East last night, gold gapped higher and has seen solid follow through buying all day, pushing the price up to 1945 and making a decisive break out of the consolidation triangle. 

We expect this to be the start of a strong move higher, with first 2000, then the all-time high in sight.  Gold is now above all of the major Moving Averages and looks very strong going into the New Year.  We are now back in full bullish mode!

Initial support can be found at 1900, with further support at the 89 day Moving Average at 1889 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1867.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1830 will provide further strong support if there is a more dramatic news driven sell off, however we see this is a line in the sand for any declines.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.

The Dow is currently at 30,722 and has today made yet another all time high of 30,797 and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,771, just below the new all-time high of 3,781 set earlier today.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading close to $50 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our initial target of $50 was tagged overnight, with $55 our new target.

In gold, support can be found at 1912, 1900, 1889, 1867, 1860, 1830, 1800 and 1770.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we said that the 1850 level would act as strong resistance as a previous level of key support and initially, gold broke through that level but found resistance at the 50 day Moving Average at 1875 before reversing sharply to test the 50% Fib retracement level of the $110 move up from 1765 at 1820.

Since testing this Fib support level, the price has rallied back up above the 1850 level and has the 50 day Moving Average in its sights once more.  A break of this level will open the way up to a move back to 1900 and beyond.

The second half of December until the end of January is usually a strong period for gold and we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the rally through this period and into February 2021.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1811 will provide support if there is an y further selling before the seasonal rally gets underway, though it is our view that the selling is likely to be over.
Gold is still trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1872, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1897. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains above the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1811 as stated above.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs.

The Dow is currently at 29,914, just a few hundred points below the all time high of 30,325 set yesterday and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,663, just 52 points below the all time high of 3,715 set on 9 December.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading above $47 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our initial target is $50 in the short term, with $55 the next target after that.
​
In gold, support can be found at 1823, 1811, 1800, 1790, 1765, 1750, 1715 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early next year is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1855, 1875, 1897-1900, 1920, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we said we were watching support at the 200 day Moving Average and that we suspected this level would hold, though there was likely to be another test before the price started to move higher into December.

Since then, gold briefly broke below the 200 day Moving Average, finding support at 1764 before rebounding sharply.  The price is now approaching previous strong support at 1850 which will now act as initial resistance, however the December rally we have been predicting for months is clearly underway.

​We think there is likely to be a correction or period of consolidation below 1850 before breaking through this level later in December.  We expect the rally to continue well into the first quarter of 2021.

Gold is still trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1880, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1911. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains just above the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1803.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs.

The Dow is currently at 29,823, just a few hundred points below the all time high of 30,214, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,663, just 10 points below the all time high of 3,674 set on 9 November.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading above $45 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our initial target is $50 in the short term, with $55 the next target after that.
​
In gold, support can be found at 1825, 1810, 1800, 1790, 1765, 1750, 1715 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early next year is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1850, 1889, 1900, 1920, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we said we were watching support at 1850 as the key area and that a break of this support was likely to see a sharp sell off towards our target of 1780-1790.  This level coincides with the 200 day Moving Average, and is also previous resistance from early summer 2020, meaning it is now an area of strong support.

Since then, gold broke decisively through support at 1850 at the bottom boundary of the triangle consolidation pattern that has been in place since August and sold off sharply to test the 200 day Moving Average as we predicted.  We suspect this level will hold, though there is likely to be another test before the price starts to move higher into December.

Gold is now trading well below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1889, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1920. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains just above the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1795.

Equities continue to surge higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.

Since jumping initially on the vaccine news, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs, particularly as further good news on vaccines is now emerging on a regular basis.

The Dow is currently at 29,886, just a few hundred points below the all time high of 30,214, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,630, just 40 points below the all time high of 3,674 set on 9 November.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading above $45 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our initial target is $50 in the short term.
​
In gold, support can be found at 1797, 1775, 1765 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early next year is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1818, 1830, 1850, 1889, 1900, 1920, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH/NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we said we thought the consolidation had a little bit more to go and were looking for a test of the 1780-90 area at the beginning of December in an ideal scenario.  This level coincides with the 200 day Moving Average, and is also previous resistance from early summer 2020, meaning it is now an area of strong support.

Since then, gold has fallen to the bottom boundary of the complex consolidation pattern that has been in place since August and is in danger of breaking to the downside.  This is just what we would like to see for a sell off down to our target over the next couple of weeks.

On a shorter time scale, gold attempted to rally after last Tuesday’s dramatic $100 sell off on the news of a COVID-19 vaccine being announced by Pfizer, however it was only able to rally feebly to the 1900 area before encountering resistance and selling off again.  We are still watching strong support at 1850 as the key area.  A break of this support is likely to see a sharp sell off towards our target of 1780-90.

Gold is now trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1901, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1922. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains above the 200 day Moving Average which as noted above is currently at 1792.

Equities continue to surge higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  Since jumping initially on the vaccine news, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs, particularly as further good news on vaccines is now emerging on a regular basis.

The Dow is currently at 29,320, just 2.5% below the all time high of 30,093, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,562, just 3% below the all time high of 3,674 set on Tuesday.

Following equities, oil sold off sharply in the first quarter of 2020, at one point trading into negative territory.  Prices have recovered strongly since then and are now trading at around $42 a barrel with a strong bullish bias on the charts.  We expect oil prices to recover further over the coming months, our initial target is $50 in the short term.

In gold, support can be found at 1848-50, 1830, 1817 and 1780.  The recent wedge consolidation pattern is bullish for gold in the medium term time frame and suggests a move towards 2,100 early next year is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1884, 1888-90, 1900, 1909, 1917, 1922, 1932, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH/NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

Since making an all time high of 2077 in August, gold has been in a complex consolidation pattern that has taken the heat out of the price and seen the overbought indicators flashing across the board come back to neutral readings in anticipation of the next rally.

We think here is a still a little way to go with this consolidation, though it is possible that the macro scale rally can resume in December/January, traditionally a strong time of year for gold prices.

Ideally, we would like to see a test of the 200 day Moving Average, currently at 1784, before the rally resumes in earnest.  This level also coincides with previous resistance from early summer 2020 and is now an area of strong support.

On a shorter time scale, gold sold off dramatically on Tuesday on the news of a COVID-19 vaccine being announced by Pfizer and so far has only recovered a fraction of those losses.  The choppy nature of the action and lack of buying conviction suggests to us that further downside is likely, with strong support at 1850 the key area to watch.  A break of this support is likely to see a sharp sell off towards our target of 1780.

Gold is now trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1909, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1888. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains above the 200 day Moving Average which as noted above is currently at 1784.

Equities continue to surge higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  Since jumping initially on the vaccine news, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs.
​
The Dow is currently at 29,200, less than 3% below the all time high of 30,093, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,557, just 3% below the all time high of 3,674 set on Tuesday.

Following equities, oil sold off sharply in the first quarter of 2020, at one point trading into negative territory.  Prices have recovered strongly since then and are now trading at around $42 a barrel with a strong bullish bias on the charts.  We expect oil prices to recover further over the coming months, our initial target is $50 in the short term.

In gold, support can be found at 1857, 1848, 1830, 1817 and 1780.  The recent wedge consolidation pattern is bullish for gold in the medium term time frame and suggests a move towards 2,100 early next year is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1884, 1888-90, 1900, 1909, 1917, 1932, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH

In our last update in January, we stated that a break of the upper boundary of the triangle at 1295 would likely see a rise to 1315-1320 in the first instance, with an extended rally towards and beyond 1350 a distinct possibility.  Gold did break out of the triangle and proceeded to rally throughout the rest of January and February, making a top at 1346 on 20 February.

Since the February top, gold has corrected back to 1280, before moving higher again into a “lower high” of 1323.  This large consolidation pattern suggests further upside towards and beyond 1365 in the medium term.  A break below 1280 would suggest a return to the 200 day MA at 1248.

Gold is now trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1308, though the price remains above the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1287. This level is providing support in the short term.  The price remains well above the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1248.

After making an all time high at the start of October, equities have corrected in a volatile and choppy zig zag pattern, with the Dow falling as low as 21,600 before finding support.  Since then the Dow has powered higher and is currently at 25,815, just 4% below the all time high of 26,967, and the S&P 500 is currently at 2,826, also just 4% lower than the all time high of 2,941.

Following equities, oil sold off sharply in the final quarter of 2018, at one point trading as low as $42 a barrel, over 45% lower than the 2018 highs around $77 a barrel.  This dramatic sell off has been reversed to some extent with a strong 2019 rally taking the price back up to $60 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1287, 1280, 1276, 1265, 1250, 1244, 1228, 1216, 1210, 1201, 1196, 1192, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent consolidation patterns is bullish for gold in the medium term time frame and suggests a move towards resistance at 1365 later in the year is becoming more likely.
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Short term resistance can be found at 1300-1302, 1305, 1310-1312, 1316-1320, 1325-1327, 1333, 1346, 1355-65.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.