LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we noted that gold had managed to stabilise above the 1750 level that was hit at the end of June, with any renewed selling action seeing buyers step in.  For several weeks, the price had bounced around in a narrow range, unable to break above 1800 resistance but well supported at 1750.  Slowly but surely, the bulls forced the price higher and after breaking through resistance at 1800 and further resistance at 1810, the rally started to accelerate, culminating in a break of the important August downtrend line.

Since that update, gold found resistance at the convergence of the 233 and 55 day Moving Averages at 1833, just $20 or so above the August downtend line.  Once the uptrend was broken on 5 August the selling accelerated dramatically, culminating in a precipitous drop of over $80 overnight on Sunday, with the price falling below 1700 for the first time since March.  Gold bounced off support at 1680 and closed the day some $50 off the lows.

The price action in the last couple of sessions suggest to us that the down trend is still in play and gold is struggling to make any further headway – as long as the price remains below 1750, the risk of further significant declines remains high.

Gold is now trading well below all of the major Moving Averages and the August 2020 downtrend line. This line is now below 1800 and will provide initial strong resistance, with the Moving Averages between 1800 and 1820 providing further strong overhead resistance.
The 1680 level is now critical support for gold and if this level is broken, 1600 becomes the next target.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After a pullback last month that tested support at the 89 day Moving Average, the Dow is currently at 35250, yet another all time high, whilst the S&P 500 continues to make all time highs on an almost daily basis.  The index is currently at 4432, a new all-time high.

Oil prices pulled back to $64 after making new multi year highs around $76 a barrel at the start of July, forming a double bottom.  We expect the price of oil to resume its rally, with our current target $80.

In gold, support can be found at 1675-1680, 1650, 1610, 1560, 1500 and 1485.  In the medium term, we now consider further gains in the gold price and a move towards 2350 to be highly unlikely this year, though a strong rally next year remains possible.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1737, 1750, 1766, 1790, 1800, 1810-1813, 1820 and 1833.  Gold needs to regain the key level at 1833-1840 to give the bulls a chance to rally back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BULLISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we noted that the dramatic sell off from just above 1900 had stalled in recent days but prices remain subdued near the lows and the bounce had to date been extremely weak. The price was below all of the major Moving Averages and looked in danger of selling off further towards 1700.

Since that update, gold has managed to stabilise above the 1750 level that was hit at the end of June, with any renewed attempts at selling action seeing buyers step in.  For several weeks, the price bounced around in a narrow range, unable to break above 1800 resistance but well supported above 1750.  Slowly but surely, the bulls forced the price higher and after breaking through resistance at 1800 and further resistance at 1808-1810, the rally started to accelerate, culminating in a break of the important August downtrend line yesterday.

Gold has found resistance at the 55 day Moving Average at 1833 this morning and is currently in the process of back testing the breakout of the August downtrend at around 1817.  The bulls must defend this breakout line, as a failure to hold this level will be seen as a failed breakout attempt that will encourage further selling and a move back towards 1800 in the first instance.

The gold price is now back above the 89 day Moving Average at 1800.  This level will provide support, with the 55 day Moving Average at 1833 now providing short term resistance.  The 233 day Moving Average just above this level at 1839 is further strong resistance, in the short term gold needs to take out these two Moving Averages and hold 1800 to keep the bulls in the driving seat.  A weekly close above 1817 will be the bull’s minimum objective this week.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After a pullback this month that found support at the 89 day Moving Average, the Dow is currently at 34900, just 100 points below the all time high of 35092 set in in May, whilst the S&P 500 continues to make all time highs on an almost daily basis.  The index is currently at 4368, just a few points below the all-time high of 4393 achieved yesterday.

Oil prices pulled back to $57 after making new multi year highs around $68 a barrel at the start of March, though have now resumed their rally and are well above $70 a barrel.  Our current target for oil is $80, however recent price weakness suggests a correction may be underway before the rally resumes.

In gold, support can be found at 1817, 1810-1808, 1800, 1790, 1760, 1725, 1695-1705, 1675-1680, 1650 and 1610.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price and would suggest a move towards 2350 in the final quarter of this year remains possible.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1833, 1839, 1845-1850, 1870, 1900-1910, 1925, 1960 and 2000.  Gold needs to regain the key level at 1840-1850 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

In our last update, we noted that the 1850 level that coincided with the upper boundary of the downtrend channel had been broken and successfully back tested and that it appeared that the powerful rally had moved into a higher gear.  The gold price was flying higher with barely a noticeable pullback in May.  Gold had broken through 1900 and the next level in the crosshairs was the January 2021 high at 1960.

Since that update, gold ran into resistance just above 1900 and after several unsuccessful attempts to break through and on to higher prices, a sharp sell off was seen in mid-June, with the gold price falling by $150 in a couple of weeks.

This dramatic sell off has stalled in recent days but prices remain subdued near the lows and the bounce has so far been extremely weak.  The gold price is now below both the 89 day Moving Average at 1790 and the 55 day Moving Average at 1824, with the 89 day Moving Average now providing short term resistance.  The 233 day Moving Average at 1853 is now strong resistance, in the short term the 55 day Moving Average at 1824 would be an ideal point to add to short positions on any rally.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After a pullback this month that found support at the 89 day Moving Average, the Dow is currently at 33890, just 3% below the all time high of 35092 set last month and the S&P 500 is currently at 4236, just a few points below the all-time high of 4267 achieved last week.

Oil prices pulled back to $57 after making new multi year highs around $68 a barrel at the start of March, though have now resumed their rally and are well above $70 a barrel.  Our current target for oil is $80.

In gold, support can be found at 1760, 1725, 1695-1705, 1675-1680, 1650, 1610, 1565 and 1450.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price and would suggest a move towards 2350 in the second half of this year remains likely.
​
​Short term resistance can be found at 1790, 1800-1810, 1824, 1845-1853, 1870, 1900-1910, 1925, 1960 and 2000.  Gold needs to regain the key level at 1840-1850 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BULLISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we noted that the 1850 level coincided with the upper boundary of the downtrend channel that has contained the price of gold since the August peak and commented that a break above here should really ignite the buying and see the shorts scrambling for cover.  The impressive chart action suggested that this may well be the end of the correction, though 1850 was critical resistance to overcome.

Since that update, the 1850 level was broken, successfully back tested and the powerful rally moved into a higher gear, with the price flying higher with barely a noticeable pullback in the three weeks since our last update.  Gold has now broken through 1900 and the next level in the crosshairs is the January 2021 high at 1960.

The gold price is now above both the 89 day Moving Average at 1783 and the 55 day Moving Average at 1778, with these two Moving Averages set for a bullish crossover in the next few days.  The 233 day Moving Average at 1850 is now strong support and would be an ideal point to add to long positions on a pull back.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After shallow pullbacks this month that found support at the 55 day Moving Average, the Dow is currently at 34363, just below the all time high of 35092 set earlier this month and the S&P 500 is currently at 4198, just below the all-time high of 4244 achieved earlier this month.

Oil prices pulled back to $57 after making new multi year highs around $68 a barrel at the start of March, though have now resumed their rally.  Our current target for oil is $80.

In gold, support can be found at 1890, 1850, 1800-1810, 1775, 1760, 1725 and 1695-1705.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price and would suggest a move towards 2350 later this year remains likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1910, 1925, 1960, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to hold key support at 1840-1850 on any pull back to ensure the bulls maintain the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we noted that gold was trading just above the support zone at 1695-1705 and needed to hold here to avoid a retest of the lows and a possible further sell off towards 1600.

We also noted that a move higher from here to recapture 1720 would likely attract further buying interest and a move towards 1770 would be the next target.  It was our view that if the bulls could take the price above 1770, then the correction that has seen the gold price fall by 20% since August 2020 could be at an end.

Since that update, the lows at 1675 were retested and successfully held.  This retest was the trigger for an impressive $130 rally that has taken the price back above 1800, with 1850 firmly in the sights in the near term.

This 1850 level coincides with the upper boundary of the downtrend channel that has contained the price of gold since the August peak - a break above here should really ignite the buying and see the shorts scrambling for cover.  The impressive recent chart action suggests that this may well be the end of the correction, though 1850 is critical resistance to overcome.

The gold price is now above both the 89 day Moving Average at 1785 and the 55 day Moving Average at 1747.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1840, together with the 1850 level mentioned above, are the key levels that must be recaptured to reinvigorate the bulls.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.
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After shallow pullbacks at the end of January and February, the Dow is currently at 34280, yet another all time high and the S&P 500 is currently at 4161, just below the all-time high of 4219 achieved late last month.

Oil prices pulled back to $57 after making new multi year highs around $68 a barrel at the start of March, though have now resumed their rally.  Our current target for oil is $80.

In gold, support can be found at 1800, 1775, 1760, 1725, 1695-1705 and 1675.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price and would suggest a move towards 2350 later this year remains likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1815-1820, 1840-1850, 1900, 1960, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance levels around 1840-1850 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we noted that we expected gold to find support around 1690, with a “last chance saloon” support level at 1675 a critical number for the bulls to hold.  A break of 1675 would signal a further sharp decline to 1600.

Since that update, the lows at 1675 have so far held, though the rally has been quite weak and unimpressive, reaching a high just above 1750 before heading back down again.  Gold is currently trading just above the support zone at 1695-1705 and will need to hold here to avoid a retest of the 1675 lows and a possible further sell off towards 1600.

A move higher from here to recapture 1720 would likely attract further buying interest and a move towards 1770 would be the next target.  If the bulls can take the price above 1770, then the correction that has seen the gold price fall by 20% since August 2020 could almost be at an end.

The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1813, with the 50 day Moving Average at 1786.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1839 is the key support level that must be recaptured to reinvigorate the bulls.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After shallow pullbacks at the end of January and February, the Dow is currently at 32940 after making a new all time high earlier this month at 33231 and the S&P 500 is currently at 3950, just below the all-time high of 3988 achieved earlier this month.

Oil prices have pulled back after making new multi year highs around $68 a barrel at the start of March. We noted in our last update that whilst the chart remains bullish, it looked overextended in the short term, so this retrace is no surprise.  Our current target for oil is $80.

In gold, support can be found at 1695-1705, 1675, 1650, 1600, 1560, 1500 and 1455.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price and would suggest a move towards 2150 later this year remains likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1722, 1740, 1760-1770, 1828-1838, 1900, 1960, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1960 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we noted that gold was poised to test the upper boundary of the trading range and the 89 day Moving Average at 1868.  This level was rejected and gold has sold off sharply ever since, falling over $200 in a dramatic and relentless sell off lasting an entire month.

We expected gold to find support around 1690, with a “last chance saloon” support level at 1675 a critical number for the bulls to hold.  A break of 1675 would suggest a further sharp decline to 1600 and possibly even lower, however the bulls are attempting to rally from the lows of 1677 made yesterday and the price is currently just above 1700.

A break above 1720 would likely attract further buying interest and a move towards 1770 would be the next target.  If the bulls can take the price above 1770, then the correction that has seen the gold price fall by 20% since August 2020 could be at an end.

The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1838, with the 50 day Moving Average at 1826.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1838 is the key support level that must be recaptured to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After shallow pullbacks at the end of January and February, the Dow is currently at 31976 after making a new all time high yesterday and the S&P 500 is currently at 3858, some 100 points below the all-time high of 3964 achieved last month.  This divergence between the Dow and the broader S&P 500 is interesting to note, though at this stage does not mean anything more significant.

Oil prices continue to recover strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading well above $65 a barrel for the first time since April 2019.  The chart still looks bullish, though overextended in the short term.  We expect a correction in oil before prices rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $60 has not just been hit but obliterated and we are now targeting $80 in oil.

In gold, support can be found at 1675, 1650, 1600, 1560, 1500 and 1455.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price and would suggest a move towards 2,150 later this year remains likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1711, 1722, 1740, 1760-1770, 1828-1838, 1900, 1960, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1960 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we noted that gold had successfully retested the 200 day Moving Average and bounced off this key level, though the gains were being restricted by a resurgent dollar and continuing equity market strength.  We also noted that the most recent high at 1875 coincided with the 89 day Moving Average.

In summary, gold was stuck in a trading range with the 89 day Moving Average at the top and the 200 day moving Average at the bottom.  A break out of this range would suggest a large move in the direction of the break.

Since then, gold sold off sharply on 4 February and broke decisively through the 200 day Moving Average, falling as low as 1785 before finding support and moving higher, notably breaking back through the 200 day Moving Average a couple of days later.  This is a bullish development and gold is now poised to test the upper boundary of the trading range and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1869.

A break of this level will suggest further strength and a retest of 1900, however we would advise caution as the Chinese New Year holiday is this Friday and for the following week Chinese gold buyers will be absent.  This period is always precarious for gold as the bears often use this opportunity attempt to force the price lower.

As stated above, the 89 day Moving Average is now at 1869, with the 50 day Moving Average at 1851.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1830 is the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After a shallow pullback at the end of January, the Dow is currently at 31500 after making a new all time high today and the S&P 500 is currently at 3930, just below the all-time high of 3935 achieved earlier today.

Oil prices continue to recover strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading well above our price target of $55 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $55 has been hit and we are now targeting $60.

In gold, support can be found at 1833, 1820, 1800, 1785, 1765, 1750 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,150 early this year is likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1875, 1884, 1900, 1930, 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we noted that the gold price was attempting to stabilise above the key 200 day Moving Average and trying to move higher from this level of support and a tentative uptrend channel had been formed on a very short term time frame.

We also noted that the bounce in the dollar would need to be watched carefully, as further strength could cap any rallies.  It was also noted that a decisive break of this key support level will likely see a return to the 1770 region and potentially a test of the bottom of the downtrend channel at 1700.

Since then, gold has retested the 200 day Moving Average and bounced again, though the gains have been restricted due to a resurgent dollar and continuing equity market strength.  The high over the period has been 1875, tested twice and also coinciding with the 89 day Moving Average.

In summary, gold has been stuck in a range with the 89 day Moving Average at the top and the 200 day moving Average at the bottom.  A break out of this range would suggest a large move in the direction of the break.

The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1873 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1856.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1820 is now the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.

After a shallow pullback in the last week or so, the Dow is currently at 30737 and within striking distance of the all time high of 31259 set a month ago and the S&P 500 is currently at 3830, just below the all-time high of 3831 achieved last month.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading at $55 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $55 has been hit and we are now targeting $60.
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In gold, support can be found at 1832, 1820, 1800, 1765, 1750 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               NEUTRAL/BULLISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we noted that gold had gapped higher at the opening of Asian markets in the New Year, with the price rising as high as 1963 and making a decisive break out of the consolidation triangle that we have been in since the August highs.  We also noted that the period up to the end of January is usually a strong period for gold and we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the rally through this period and into February 2021.

Since that initial burst higher, gold has reversed sharply and retested the key 200 day Moving Average at 1840, at one point actually breaking briefly below that level.  The price has now stabilised and is attempting to move higher from this level of support – a tentative uptrend channel has been formed on a very short term time frame, though the bounce in the dollar will need to be watched carefully, as further strength could see selling pressure return to gold and another test of the 200 day Moving Average.

It should be noted that a decisive break of this key support level will likely see a return to the 1770 region and potentially a test of the bottom of the downtrend channel at 1700.

Gold is now trading just below the shorter term 50 and 89 day Moving Averages and the bulls will need to reclaim these levels which are now short term resistance.  The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1884 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1866.  As stated above, the 200 day Moving Average at 1840 is now the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.

The Dow is currently at 31022 and within striking distance of the all time high of 31259 set a few days ago and the S&P 500 is currently at 3804, just below the new all-time high of 3831, achieved a few days ago.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading close to $54 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $55 is almost within touching distance.

In gold, support can be found at 1850, 1840, 1836, 1828, 1817, 1800, 1770 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1866, 1884, 1900, 1930, 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.