LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                         BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BULLISH

In our last update in early December, we stated that as we had seen a break above 1216 and a successful retest of that level as support, we were likely to see gold rally towards the high 1200s into the year end. Gold did indeed rally strongly throughout December, making a high just below 1300 at the start of January 2019.

Gold has formed a triangle consolidation pattern over the past two weeks, suggesting a continuation of the rally is likely with a breakout of the triangle.  The upper boundary of the triangle is around 1295 and a break of this level will likely see a rise to 1315-1320 in the first instance, though an extended rally towards and beyond 1350 cannot be ruled out.  Much of the rise is due to dollar weakness and the dollar index chart suggests further downside and a continuation of the recent trend.

Gold is now trading well above both the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1241, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1229. The 50 day Moving Average is rising sharply in a bullish posture and the 89 day Moving Average is also rising in parallel.  The price has also broken the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1249 and is about to be crossed by the 50 day Moving Average.

After making an all time high at the start of October, equities have corrected in a volatile and choppy zig zag pattern, with the Dow falling as low as 21,600 before finding support and the S&P 500 falling over 600 points to a low of 2,341 before recovering.

The Dow is currently at 23,880, over 11% below the all time high of 26,967, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,583, over 12% lower than the all time high of 2,941.

Following equities, oil has sold off sharply and trading as low as $42 a barrel, over 45% lower than the 2018 highs around $77 a barrel.  This dramatic sell off is being taken by some as a portent to a global economic slowdown, though the short term effect on inflation will take the pressure off central banks contemplating further interest rate rises.

Support can be found at 1286, 1276, 1265, 1250, 1244, 1228, 1216, 1210, 1201, 1196, 1192, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.
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Short term resistance can be found at 1296-98, 1302, 1310, 1316-1320, 1326, 1344, 1355-65.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                         BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BULLISH

Since our last update where we observed that gold had broken out of the narrow trading range that contained the price during September and had remained above 1215 since the breakout.

We also stated that as we had a break above 1216 and a successful retest, we were likely to see gold rally towards the high 1200s into the year end.  Since then gold retraced as far as 1197 before rallying strongly back above 1215 again and has continued to move steadily higher since then.  The price is currently at 1237, after finding resistance at the downtrend resistance line at 1241.

Gold is now trading above both the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1218, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1209. The 50 day Moving Average has continued to rise in a bullish posture and the 89 day Moving Average is also turning upwards.  The price is still yet to break the 200 day Moving Average, which is currently at 1257 and still moving steadily lower.

After making an all time high at the start of October, equities have corrected in a volatile and choppy zigzag pattern, with the Dow falling as low as 24,100 before finding support and the S&P 500 falling over 300 points to a low of 2,627 before recovering.

The Dow is currently at 25,150, some 1,800 points below the all time high of 26,967, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,715, over 200 points lower than the all time high of 2,941.

Following equities, oil has sold off sharply - at one point trading below $50 a barrel - over $27 lower than the recent highs around $77 a barrel.  This dramatic 35% sell off is being taken by some as a portent to a global economic slowdown, though the short term effect on inflation will take the pressure off central banks contemplating further interest rate rises.

Support can be found at 1233, 1228, 1216, 1210, 1201, 1196, 1192, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term time frame and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1241-1243, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH

Since our last update, gold has broken out of the narrow trading range between 1181 and 1212 that contained the price during September.  On 11 October, gold powered higher, smashing through the top of the trading range, moving as high as 1243 and has stayed above 1215 since then.

In our last update, we stated that our view was that the downside presents the most likely path into year end, though a break above 1216 would suggest that a short term low has been made in gold.  As we have now had this break above 1216 and a number of successful retests of the top of the previous trading range, we are likely to see gold rally towards the high 1200s into the year end.  However, a reversal and break below 1212 would suggest another test of 1180 - if this level were to fail, a swift return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.

Gold is now trading above both the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1205, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1214. The 50 day moving Average has curled upwards in a bullish posture, however the price remains below the 200 day Moving Average at 1272.

After making an all time high at the time of our last update, equities have corrected sharply, with the Dow down over 2,000 points from the highs and the S&P 500 falling 300 points.

The Dow is currently at 24,700, over 2,000 points below the all time high of 26,967, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,665, almost 300 points lower than the all time high of 2,941.

Following equities, oil has sold off sharply and is currently trading around $66 a barrel, over $10 lower than the recent highs around $77 a barrel, moving in lock step with equities.

Support can be found at 1220, 1215, 1209, 1201, 1192, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1233, 1243, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 NEUTRAL

Since our last update, gold has continued to trade within a relatively tight range between 1181 and 1212.  In our last update we suggested that there were several signs of weakness inherent in the gold market and that a retest of support at 1182 was a probable outcome in the short term.

Gold did indeed retest 1182 - the low being 1181 - and since then has bounced back up towards the top of the trading range just above 1200.  It is still in the balance as to where gold goes next – the bulls will see the ability of the market to hold 1180 in the short term as positive, whilst the bears will equally validly see the inability of gold to bounce in any meaningful way after a sharp decline from the mid-1300s to 1160 as indicative of further declines to come.

We remain of the view that the downside presents the most likely path into year end, though a break above 1216 would suggest that a short term low has been made in gold.  A break below 1180 would suggest another test of 1160 - if this level were to fail, a swift return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.

Gold has recently broken above the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1200 - though not convincingly - and remains below the 200 day Moving Average at 1281 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1226.

We have stated several times in our previous reports that support for equities remains strong and we expected new all time highs later this year.  After making yet another all time high this week, the Dow has consolidated just above 26,600, with the S&P 500 taking stock just above the 2,900 level.

The Dow is currently at 26,660, just below the all time high of 26,967, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,905, just shy of the all time high of 2,941.

Oil has resumed its powerful rally, found short term resistance just below $77 a barrel and has retraced slightly to currently trading around $74.50 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1195, 1192, 1189, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1207, 1214, 1218, 1233, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 NEUTRAL/BEARISH

We still consider that there are several signs of weakness inherent in the gold market at the moment and are still of the view that a retest of support at 1182 is a probable outcome in the short term.

Gold has continued to oscillate in a narrow $25 range between 1187 and 1212 with a slight downward bias for the past month and considering the sharp decline from April to August, this does not suggest that a bottom is in place but rather that the price is consolidating near lows before another leg down.

A break above 1216 would suggest that a short term low has been made in gold and a break below 1175 would suggest another test of 1160 - if this level were to fail, a swift return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.

At present, the price still remains below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed sharply lower.  Gold did test the 50 day Moving Average at 1212, though this level was strongly rejected.  The 50 day Moving Average is therefore strong resistance and is currently at 1208.  The 200 day Moving Average is currently at 1284 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1241.

We have stated several times in our previous reports that support for equities remains strong and we expected new all time highs later this year.  After making yet another all time high last week, this week the Dow has consolidated just above 26,100, with the S&P 500 taking stock just below the 2,900 level.

The Dow is currently at 26,126, just below the all time high of 26,223, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,895, just shy of the all time high of 2,916.

Oil found some resistance just below $71 a barrel and has retraced slightly to currently trading around $69.50 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1195, 1192, 1189, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1204, 1207, 1214, 1218, 1233, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                         BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                NEUTRAL

In our last update, we commented that there were several signs of weakness inherent in the gold market at the moment and we suggested that a retest of support at 1182 now seemed likely.

​Since that update, gold has bounced around in a narrow $20 range between 1189 and 1209 with a slight downward bias, however our 1182 target has not yet been reached.

A break below 1175 would suggest another test of 1160 and if this level were to fail, a return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.

At present, the price still remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed sharply lower.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1216 and will provide initial resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1287 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1249.

We have stated several times in our previous reports that support for equities remains strong and we expected new all time highs later this year.  After making new all time highs last week, this week the Dow has consolidated just below 26,000, as has the S&P 500 taking stock just below the 2,900 level.  This does not look like the end of the rally.

The Dow is currently at 25,950, just below the all time high of 26,167, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,877, just shy of the all time high of 2,916.

Oil found some resistance just below $71 a barrel and has retraced slightly to currently trading around $67 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1189, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term time frame and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1207, 1214, 1218, 1233, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

​LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 NEUTRAL

In our last update we commented that, following the rally in the gold price after finding short term support at the 2017 down trend line at 1160, we suspected that the rebound had some legs left with 1220 a potential target level.

As it turned out, the rally did have a bit further to go, however gold didn’t quite make 1220, finding resistance at one of our other highlighted potential resistance levels of 1214 before turning lower again.

This is a bearish development, demonstrating the weakness inherent in the gold market at the moment and suggesting that a retest of support at 1182 now seems likely.  A break below 1175 would suggest another test of 1160 and if this level were to fail, a return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.

At present, the price still remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed sharply lower.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1225 and will provide initial resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1290 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1256.

We have stated several times in our previous reports that support for equities remains strong and we expected new all time highs later this year.  This week, the Dow has made yet another new all time highs, breaking above 26,000 for the first time, as has the S&P 500 hitting the 2,900 level for the first time ever.

The Dow is currently at 26,050, just below the new all time high of 26,167, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,907, just shy of the new all time high of 2,916 hit yesterday.

Oil is continuing to bounce hard after a correction to the recent strong rally and is currently trading around $70 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1195, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1207, 1214, 1218, 1233, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BULLISH

In our last update, we commented that gold appeared to have finally found some short term support at the 2017 down trend line at 1160.  Since making a low on 16 August, gold has rebounded sharply and is currently testing the 1200 level.  We suspect the rebound has some legs left, with 1220 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1233 potential target levels.

A break below 1175 would suggest another test of 1160 and if this level were to fail, a return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.

At present, the price still remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed sharply lower.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1233 and will provide resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1292 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1265.

We stated in our previous report, support for equities remains strong and we expect new all time highs later this year.  This week, the Dow has made new all time highs, as has the S&P 500.
The Dow is currently at 25,795, just below the new all time high, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,861, just shy of new all time highs hit yesterday.

Oil is bouncing hard after a correction to the recent strong rally and is currently trading around $67 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1187, 1175, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1204, 1214, 1218, 1233, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                   BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND     NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND        BEARISH

Gold has been under severe selling pressure for the past few months, with a series of lower highs since April and a rapidly declining price profile since July, however we appear to have finally found some short term support at the 2017 down trend line at 1160.  If this support level gives way, the bears will be looking to take the price of gold back down to the low 1100s and ultimately challenge the bear market lows at 1045 made in December 2015.

In our last update, we stated that the break of the 200 day Moving Average suggested a test of 1204 – in fact, this level provided scant support and quickly gave way, with a sharp decline to 1160 following within a few days.  The price remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed sharply lower.

In our last update we stated that we felt that 1200 was more likely than 1300 in the short term and that has also proved correct.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1241 and will provide resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1294 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1272.

Equities remain in the corrective triangle pattern that we highlighted in our previous report, though have moved to the top edge of the triangle and are testing the trendline for a breakout.  As we stated in our previous report, support remains strong and we expect new all time highs later this year.

The Dow is currently at 25,415, some 1,220 points off the all time high, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,840, just 35 points off the January highs.

After hitting a peak of $74 two weeks ago, oil is correcting after a strong rally, however the uptrend remains intact.

Support can be found at 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1194, 1204, 1212, 1218, 1236, 1266, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                     BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND       NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                   BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND          BEARISH

After finding resistance at the 89 week Moving Average at 1267, gold has fallen steadily without any significant rallies and is currently trading near 12 month lows at 1220 after testing 1213 earlier today.

The gold price is now consolidating near the lows, suggesting further selling to come.  In our last update, we stated that a break of the 200 week Moving Average at 1234 should see a further decline towards 1200 and that is what we are seeing, with 1204 a possible target.  The price remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed lower.

In our last update we stated that we felt that 1200 was more likely than 1300 in the short term and that has also proved correct.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1265 and will provide resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1298 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1291.

Equities remain in the corrective triangle pattern that we highlighted in our previous report, though have moved to the top edge of the triangle and are testing the trendline for a breakout.  As we stated in our previous report, support remains strong and we expect new all time highs later this year.

The Dow is currently at 25,430, some 1,220 points off the all time high, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,815, just 60 points off the January highs.

After hitting a peak of $74 two weeks ago, oil is correcting after a strong rally, however the uptrend remains intact.

Support can be found at 1213, 1204, 1194, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term time frame and suggests a move towards the 2017 lows at 1204 is likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1234, 1238, 1266, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.