LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               NEUTRAL/BULLISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we noted that gold had gapped higher at the opening of Asian markets in the New Year, with the price rising as high as 1963 and making a decisive break out of the consolidation triangle that we have been in since the August highs.  We also noted that the period up to the end of January is usually a strong period for gold and we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the rally through this period and into February 2021.

Since that initial burst higher, gold has reversed sharply and retested the key 200 day Moving Average at 1840, at one point actually breaking briefly below that level.  The price has now stabilised and is attempting to move higher from this level of support – a tentative uptrend channel has been formed on a very short term time frame, though the bounce in the dollar will need to be watched carefully, as further strength could see selling pressure return to gold and another test of the 200 day Moving Average.

It should be noted that a decisive break of this key support level will likely see a return to the 1770 region and potentially a test of the bottom of the downtrend channel at 1700.

Gold is now trading just below the shorter term 50 and 89 day Moving Averages and the bulls will need to reclaim these levels which are now short term resistance.  The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1884 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1866.  As stated above, the 200 day Moving Average at 1840 is now the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.

The Dow is currently at 31022 and within striking distance of the all time high of 31259 set a few days ago and the S&P 500 is currently at 3804, just below the new all-time high of 3831, achieved a few days ago.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading close to $54 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $55 is almost within touching distance.

In gold, support can be found at 1850, 1840, 1836, 1828, 1817, 1800, 1770 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1866, 1884, 1900, 1930, 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BULLISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we said that since testing support at the 50% retracement level at 1820, the price had rallied back up above the 1850 level and had the 50 day Moving Average in its sights once more.  We also said that a break of this level would open the way up to a move back to 1900 and beyond.

​We also noted that the second half of December until the end of January is usually a strong period for gold and we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the rally through this period and into February 2021.

We saw gold continue to grind higher throughout the second half of December and by the end of the year was poised to break out of the large consolidation triangle we have been in since the all time high in August 2020, with the price just above 1900.  As markets reopened in the Far East last night, gold gapped higher and has seen solid follow through buying all day, pushing the price up to 1945 and making a decisive break out of the consolidation triangle. 

We expect this to be the start of a strong move higher, with first 2000, then the all-time high in sight.  Gold is now above all of the major Moving Averages and looks very strong going into the New Year.  We are now back in full bullish mode!

Initial support can be found at 1900, with further support at the 89 day Moving Average at 1889 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1867.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1830 will provide further strong support if there is a more dramatic news driven sell off, however we see this is a line in the sand for any declines.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.

The Dow is currently at 30,722 and has today made yet another all time high of 30,797 and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,771, just below the new all-time high of 3,781 set earlier today.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading close to $50 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our initial target of $50 was tagged overnight, with $55 our new target.

In gold, support can be found at 1912, 1900, 1889, 1867, 1860, 1830, 1800 and 1770.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we said that the 1850 level would act as strong resistance as a previous level of key support and initially, gold broke through that level but found resistance at the 50 day Moving Average at 1875 before reversing sharply to test the 50% Fib retracement level of the $110 move up from 1765 at 1820.

Since testing this Fib support level, the price has rallied back up above the 1850 level and has the 50 day Moving Average in its sights once more.  A break of this level will open the way up to a move back to 1900 and beyond.

The second half of December until the end of January is usually a strong period for gold and we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the rally through this period and into February 2021.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1811 will provide support if there is an y further selling before the seasonal rally gets underway, though it is our view that the selling is likely to be over.
Gold is still trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1872, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1897. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains above the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1811 as stated above.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs.

The Dow is currently at 29,914, just a few hundred points below the all time high of 30,325 set yesterday and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,663, just 52 points below the all time high of 3,715 set on 9 December.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading above $47 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our initial target is $50 in the short term, with $55 the next target after that.
​
In gold, support can be found at 1823, 1811, 1800, 1790, 1765, 1750, 1715 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early next year is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1855, 1875, 1897-1900, 1920, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we said we were watching support at the 200 day Moving Average and that we suspected this level would hold, though there was likely to be another test before the price started to move higher into December.

Since then, gold briefly broke below the 200 day Moving Average, finding support at 1764 before rebounding sharply.  The price is now approaching previous strong support at 1850 which will now act as initial resistance, however the December rally we have been predicting for months is clearly underway.

​We think there is likely to be a correction or period of consolidation below 1850 before breaking through this level later in December.  We expect the rally to continue well into the first quarter of 2021.

Gold is still trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1880, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1911. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains just above the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1803.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs.

The Dow is currently at 29,823, just a few hundred points below the all time high of 30,214, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,663, just 10 points below the all time high of 3,674 set on 9 November.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading above $45 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our initial target is $50 in the short term, with $55 the next target after that.
​
In gold, support can be found at 1825, 1810, 1800, 1790, 1765, 1750, 1715 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early next year is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1850, 1889, 1900, 1920, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we said we were watching support at 1850 as the key area and that a break of this support was likely to see a sharp sell off towards our target of 1780-1790.  This level coincides with the 200 day Moving Average, and is also previous resistance from early summer 2020, meaning it is now an area of strong support.

Since then, gold broke decisively through support at 1850 at the bottom boundary of the triangle consolidation pattern that has been in place since August and sold off sharply to test the 200 day Moving Average as we predicted.  We suspect this level will hold, though there is likely to be another test before the price starts to move higher into December.

Gold is now trading well below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1889, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1920. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains just above the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1795.

Equities continue to surge higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.

Since jumping initially on the vaccine news, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs, particularly as further good news on vaccines is now emerging on a regular basis.

The Dow is currently at 29,886, just a few hundred points below the all time high of 30,214, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,630, just 40 points below the all time high of 3,674 set on 9 November.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading above $45 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our initial target is $50 in the short term.
​
In gold, support can be found at 1797, 1775, 1765 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early next year is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1818, 1830, 1850, 1889, 1900, 1920, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH/NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we said we thought the consolidation had a little bit more to go and were looking for a test of the 1780-90 area at the beginning of December in an ideal scenario.  This level coincides with the 200 day Moving Average, and is also previous resistance from early summer 2020, meaning it is now an area of strong support.

Since then, gold has fallen to the bottom boundary of the complex consolidation pattern that has been in place since August and is in danger of breaking to the downside.  This is just what we would like to see for a sell off down to our target over the next couple of weeks.

On a shorter time scale, gold attempted to rally after last Tuesday’s dramatic $100 sell off on the news of a COVID-19 vaccine being announced by Pfizer, however it was only able to rally feebly to the 1900 area before encountering resistance and selling off again.  We are still watching strong support at 1850 as the key area.  A break of this support is likely to see a sharp sell off towards our target of 1780-90.

Gold is now trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1901, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1922. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains above the 200 day Moving Average which as noted above is currently at 1792.

Equities continue to surge higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  Since jumping initially on the vaccine news, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs, particularly as further good news on vaccines is now emerging on a regular basis.

The Dow is currently at 29,320, just 2.5% below the all time high of 30,093, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,562, just 3% below the all time high of 3,674 set on Tuesday.

Following equities, oil sold off sharply in the first quarter of 2020, at one point trading into negative territory.  Prices have recovered strongly since then and are now trading at around $42 a barrel with a strong bullish bias on the charts.  We expect oil prices to recover further over the coming months, our initial target is $50 in the short term.

In gold, support can be found at 1848-50, 1830, 1817 and 1780.  The recent wedge consolidation pattern is bullish for gold in the medium term time frame and suggests a move towards 2,100 early next year is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1884, 1888-90, 1900, 1909, 1917, 1922, 1932, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH/NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

Since making an all time high of 2077 in August, gold has been in a complex consolidation pattern that has taken the heat out of the price and seen the overbought indicators flashing across the board come back to neutral readings in anticipation of the next rally.

We think here is a still a little way to go with this consolidation, though it is possible that the macro scale rally can resume in December/January, traditionally a strong time of year for gold prices.

Ideally, we would like to see a test of the 200 day Moving Average, currently at 1784, before the rally resumes in earnest.  This level also coincides with previous resistance from early summer 2020 and is now an area of strong support.

On a shorter time scale, gold sold off dramatically on Tuesday on the news of a COVID-19 vaccine being announced by Pfizer and so far has only recovered a fraction of those losses.  The choppy nature of the action and lack of buying conviction suggests to us that further downside is likely, with strong support at 1850 the key area to watch.  A break of this support is likely to see a sharp sell off towards our target of 1780.

Gold is now trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1909, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1888. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains above the 200 day Moving Average which as noted above is currently at 1784.

Equities continue to surge higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  Since jumping initially on the vaccine news, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs.
​
The Dow is currently at 29,200, less than 3% below the all time high of 30,093, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,557, just 3% below the all time high of 3,674 set on Tuesday.

Following equities, oil sold off sharply in the first quarter of 2020, at one point trading into negative territory.  Prices have recovered strongly since then and are now trading at around $42 a barrel with a strong bullish bias on the charts.  We expect oil prices to recover further over the coming months, our initial target is $50 in the short term.

In gold, support can be found at 1857, 1848, 1830, 1817 and 1780.  The recent wedge consolidation pattern is bullish for gold in the medium term time frame and suggests a move towards 2,100 early next year is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1884, 1888-90, 1900, 1909, 1917, 1932, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH

In our last update in January, we stated that a break of the upper boundary of the triangle at 1295 would likely see a rise to 1315-1320 in the first instance, with an extended rally towards and beyond 1350 a distinct possibility.  Gold did break out of the triangle and proceeded to rally throughout the rest of January and February, making a top at 1346 on 20 February.

Since the February top, gold has corrected back to 1280, before moving higher again into a “lower high” of 1323.  This large consolidation pattern suggests further upside towards and beyond 1365 in the medium term.  A break below 1280 would suggest a return to the 200 day MA at 1248.

Gold is now trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1308, though the price remains above the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1287. This level is providing support in the short term.  The price remains well above the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1248.

After making an all time high at the start of October, equities have corrected in a volatile and choppy zig zag pattern, with the Dow falling as low as 21,600 before finding support.  Since then the Dow has powered higher and is currently at 25,815, just 4% below the all time high of 26,967, and the S&P 500 is currently at 2,826, also just 4% lower than the all time high of 2,941.

Following equities, oil sold off sharply in the final quarter of 2018, at one point trading as low as $42 a barrel, over 45% lower than the 2018 highs around $77 a barrel.  This dramatic sell off has been reversed to some extent with a strong 2019 rally taking the price back up to $60 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1287, 1280, 1276, 1265, 1250, 1244, 1228, 1216, 1210, 1201, 1196, 1192, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent consolidation patterns is bullish for gold in the medium term time frame and suggests a move towards resistance at 1365 later in the year is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1300-1302, 1305, 1310-1312, 1316-1320, 1325-1327, 1333, 1346, 1355-65.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                         BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BULLISH

In our last update in early December, we stated that as we had seen a break above 1216 and a successful retest of that level as support, we were likely to see gold rally towards the high 1200s into the year end. Gold did indeed rally strongly throughout December, making a high just below 1300 at the start of January 2019.

Gold has formed a triangle consolidation pattern over the past two weeks, suggesting a continuation of the rally is likely with a breakout of the triangle.  The upper boundary of the triangle is around 1295 and a break of this level will likely see a rise to 1315-1320 in the first instance, though an extended rally towards and beyond 1350 cannot be ruled out.  Much of the rise is due to dollar weakness and the dollar index chart suggests further downside and a continuation of the recent trend.

Gold is now trading well above both the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1241, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1229. The 50 day Moving Average is rising sharply in a bullish posture and the 89 day Moving Average is also rising in parallel.  The price has also broken the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1249 and is about to be crossed by the 50 day Moving Average.

After making an all time high at the start of October, equities have corrected in a volatile and choppy zig zag pattern, with the Dow falling as low as 21,600 before finding support and the S&P 500 falling over 600 points to a low of 2,341 before recovering.

The Dow is currently at 23,880, over 11% below the all time high of 26,967, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,583, over 12% lower than the all time high of 2,941.

Following equities, oil has sold off sharply and trading as low as $42 a barrel, over 45% lower than the 2018 highs around $77 a barrel.  This dramatic sell off is being taken by some as a portent to a global economic slowdown, though the short term effect on inflation will take the pressure off central banks contemplating further interest rate rises.

Support can be found at 1286, 1276, 1265, 1250, 1244, 1228, 1216, 1210, 1201, 1196, 1192, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1296-98, 1302, 1310, 1316-1320, 1326, 1344, 1355-65.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                         BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BULLISH

Since our last update where we observed that gold had broken out of the narrow trading range that contained the price during September and had remained above 1215 since the breakout.

We also stated that as we had a break above 1216 and a successful retest, we were likely to see gold rally towards the high 1200s into the year end.  Since then gold retraced as far as 1197 before rallying strongly back above 1215 again and has continued to move steadily higher since then.  The price is currently at 1237, after finding resistance at the downtrend resistance line at 1241.

Gold is now trading above both the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1218, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1209. The 50 day Moving Average has continued to rise in a bullish posture and the 89 day Moving Average is also turning upwards.  The price is still yet to break the 200 day Moving Average, which is currently at 1257 and still moving steadily lower.

After making an all time high at the start of October, equities have corrected in a volatile and choppy zigzag pattern, with the Dow falling as low as 24,100 before finding support and the S&P 500 falling over 300 points to a low of 2,627 before recovering.

The Dow is currently at 25,150, some 1,800 points below the all time high of 26,967, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,715, over 200 points lower than the all time high of 2,941.

Following equities, oil has sold off sharply - at one point trading below $50 a barrel - over $27 lower than the recent highs around $77 a barrel.  This dramatic 35% sell off is being taken by some as a portent to a global economic slowdown, though the short term effect on inflation will take the pressure off central banks contemplating further interest rate rises.

Support can be found at 1233, 1228, 1216, 1210, 1201, 1196, 1192, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term time frame and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1241-1243, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.