LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we noted that we expected gold to find support around 1690, with a “last chance saloon” support level at 1675 a critical number for the bulls to hold.  A break of 1675 would signal a further sharp decline to 1600.

Since that update, the lows at 1675 have so far held, though the rally has been quite weak and unimpressive, reaching a high just above 1750 before heading back down again.  Gold is currently trading just above the support zone at 1695-1705 and will need to hold here to avoid a retest of the 1675 lows and a possible further sell off towards 1600.

A move higher from here to recapture 1720 would likely attract further buying interest and a move towards 1770 would be the next target.  If the bulls can take the price above 1770, then the correction that has seen the gold price fall by 20% since August 2020 could almost be at an end.

The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1813, with the 50 day Moving Average at 1786.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1839 is the key support level that must be recaptured to reinvigorate the bulls.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After shallow pullbacks at the end of January and February, the Dow is currently at 32940 after making a new all time high earlier this month at 33231 and the S&P 500 is currently at 3950, just below the all-time high of 3988 achieved earlier this month.

Oil prices have pulled back after making new multi year highs around $68 a barrel at the start of March. We noted in our last update that whilst the chart remains bullish, it looked overextended in the short term, so this retrace is no surprise.  Our current target for oil is $80.

In gold, support can be found at 1695-1705, 1675, 1650, 1600, 1560, 1500 and 1455.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price and would suggest a move towards 2150 later this year remains likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1722, 1740, 1760-1770, 1828-1838, 1900, 1960, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1960 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we noted that gold was poised to test the upper boundary of the trading range and the 89 day Moving Average at 1868.  This level was rejected and gold has sold off sharply ever since, falling over $200 in a dramatic and relentless sell off lasting an entire month.

We expected gold to find support around 1690, with a “last chance saloon” support level at 1675 a critical number for the bulls to hold.  A break of 1675 would suggest a further sharp decline to 1600 and possibly even lower, however the bulls are attempting to rally from the lows of 1677 made yesterday and the price is currently just above 1700.

A break above 1720 would likely attract further buying interest and a move towards 1770 would be the next target.  If the bulls can take the price above 1770, then the correction that has seen the gold price fall by 20% since August 2020 could be at an end.

The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1838, with the 50 day Moving Average at 1826.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1838 is the key support level that must be recaptured to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After shallow pullbacks at the end of January and February, the Dow is currently at 31976 after making a new all time high yesterday and the S&P 500 is currently at 3858, some 100 points below the all-time high of 3964 achieved last month.  This divergence between the Dow and the broader S&P 500 is interesting to note, though at this stage does not mean anything more significant.

Oil prices continue to recover strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading well above $65 a barrel for the first time since April 2019.  The chart still looks bullish, though overextended in the short term.  We expect a correction in oil before prices rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $60 has not just been hit but obliterated and we are now targeting $80 in oil.

In gold, support can be found at 1675, 1650, 1600, 1560, 1500 and 1455.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price and would suggest a move towards 2,150 later this year remains likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1711, 1722, 1740, 1760-1770, 1828-1838, 1900, 1960, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1960 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we noted that gold had successfully retested the 200 day Moving Average and bounced off this key level, though the gains were being restricted by a resurgent dollar and continuing equity market strength.  We also noted that the most recent high at 1875 coincided with the 89 day Moving Average.

In summary, gold was stuck in a trading range with the 89 day Moving Average at the top and the 200 day moving Average at the bottom.  A break out of this range would suggest a large move in the direction of the break.

Since then, gold sold off sharply on 4 February and broke decisively through the 200 day Moving Average, falling as low as 1785 before finding support and moving higher, notably breaking back through the 200 day Moving Average a couple of days later.  This is a bullish development and gold is now poised to test the upper boundary of the trading range and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1869.

A break of this level will suggest further strength and a retest of 1900, however we would advise caution as the Chinese New Year holiday is this Friday and for the following week Chinese gold buyers will be absent.  This period is always precarious for gold as the bears often use this opportunity attempt to force the price lower.

As stated above, the 89 day Moving Average is now at 1869, with the 50 day Moving Average at 1851.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1830 is the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After a shallow pullback at the end of January, the Dow is currently at 31500 after making a new all time high today and the S&P 500 is currently at 3930, just below the all-time high of 3935 achieved earlier today.

Oil prices continue to recover strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading well above our price target of $55 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $55 has been hit and we are now targeting $60.

In gold, support can be found at 1833, 1820, 1800, 1785, 1765, 1750 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,150 early this year is likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1875, 1884, 1900, 1930, 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we noted that the gold price was attempting to stabilise above the key 200 day Moving Average and trying to move higher from this level of support and a tentative uptrend channel had been formed on a very short term time frame.

We also noted that the bounce in the dollar would need to be watched carefully, as further strength could cap any rallies.  It was also noted that a decisive break of this key support level will likely see a return to the 1770 region and potentially a test of the bottom of the downtrend channel at 1700.

Since then, gold has retested the 200 day Moving Average and bounced again, though the gains have been restricted due to a resurgent dollar and continuing equity market strength.  The high over the period has been 1875, tested twice and also coinciding with the 89 day Moving Average.

In summary, gold has been stuck in a range with the 89 day Moving Average at the top and the 200 day moving Average at the bottom.  A break out of this range would suggest a large move in the direction of the break.

The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1873 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1856.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1820 is now the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.

After a shallow pullback in the last week or so, the Dow is currently at 30737 and within striking distance of the all time high of 31259 set a month ago and the S&P 500 is currently at 3830, just below the all-time high of 3831 achieved last month.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading at $55 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $55 has been hit and we are now targeting $60.
​
In gold, support can be found at 1832, 1820, 1800, 1765, 1750 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               NEUTRAL/BULLISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we noted that gold had gapped higher at the opening of Asian markets in the New Year, with the price rising as high as 1963 and making a decisive break out of the consolidation triangle that we have been in since the August highs.  We also noted that the period up to the end of January is usually a strong period for gold and we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the rally through this period and into February 2021.

Since that initial burst higher, gold has reversed sharply and retested the key 200 day Moving Average at 1840, at one point actually breaking briefly below that level.  The price has now stabilised and is attempting to move higher from this level of support – a tentative uptrend channel has been formed on a very short term time frame, though the bounce in the dollar will need to be watched carefully, as further strength could see selling pressure return to gold and another test of the 200 day Moving Average.

It should be noted that a decisive break of this key support level will likely see a return to the 1770 region and potentially a test of the bottom of the downtrend channel at 1700.

Gold is now trading just below the shorter term 50 and 89 day Moving Averages and the bulls will need to reclaim these levels which are now short term resistance.  The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1884 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1866.  As stated above, the 200 day Moving Average at 1840 is now the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.

The Dow is currently at 31022 and within striking distance of the all time high of 31259 set a few days ago and the S&P 500 is currently at 3804, just below the new all-time high of 3831, achieved a few days ago.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading close to $54 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $55 is almost within touching distance.

In gold, support can be found at 1850, 1840, 1836, 1828, 1817, 1800, 1770 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1866, 1884, 1900, 1930, 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BULLISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we said that since testing support at the 50% retracement level at 1820, the price had rallied back up above the 1850 level and had the 50 day Moving Average in its sights once more.  We also said that a break of this level would open the way up to a move back to 1900 and beyond.

​We also noted that the second half of December until the end of January is usually a strong period for gold and we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the rally through this period and into February 2021.

We saw gold continue to grind higher throughout the second half of December and by the end of the year was poised to break out of the large consolidation triangle we have been in since the all time high in August 2020, with the price just above 1900.  As markets reopened in the Far East last night, gold gapped higher and has seen solid follow through buying all day, pushing the price up to 1945 and making a decisive break out of the consolidation triangle. 

We expect this to be the start of a strong move higher, with first 2000, then the all-time high in sight.  Gold is now above all of the major Moving Averages and looks very strong going into the New Year.  We are now back in full bullish mode!

Initial support can be found at 1900, with further support at the 89 day Moving Average at 1889 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1867.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1830 will provide further strong support if there is a more dramatic news driven sell off, however we see this is a line in the sand for any declines.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.

The Dow is currently at 30,722 and has today made yet another all time high of 30,797 and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,771, just below the new all-time high of 3,781 set earlier today.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading close to $50 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our initial target of $50 was tagged overnight, with $55 our new target.

In gold, support can be found at 1912, 1900, 1889, 1867, 1860, 1830, 1800 and 1770.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we said that the 1850 level would act as strong resistance as a previous level of key support and initially, gold broke through that level but found resistance at the 50 day Moving Average at 1875 before reversing sharply to test the 50% Fib retracement level of the $110 move up from 1765 at 1820.

Since testing this Fib support level, the price has rallied back up above the 1850 level and has the 50 day Moving Average in its sights once more.  A break of this level will open the way up to a move back to 1900 and beyond.

The second half of December until the end of January is usually a strong period for gold and we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the rally through this period and into February 2021.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1811 will provide support if there is an y further selling before the seasonal rally gets underway, though it is our view that the selling is likely to be over.
Gold is still trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1872, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1897. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains above the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1811 as stated above.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs.

The Dow is currently at 29,914, just a few hundred points below the all time high of 30,325 set yesterday and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,663, just 52 points below the all time high of 3,715 set on 9 December.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading above $47 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our initial target is $50 in the short term, with $55 the next target after that.
​
In gold, support can be found at 1823, 1811, 1800, 1790, 1765, 1750, 1715 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early next year is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1855, 1875, 1897-1900, 1920, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we said we were watching support at the 200 day Moving Average and that we suspected this level would hold, though there was likely to be another test before the price started to move higher into December.

Since then, gold briefly broke below the 200 day Moving Average, finding support at 1764 before rebounding sharply.  The price is now approaching previous strong support at 1850 which will now act as initial resistance, however the December rally we have been predicting for months is clearly underway.

​We think there is likely to be a correction or period of consolidation below 1850 before breaking through this level later in December.  We expect the rally to continue well into the first quarter of 2021.

Gold is still trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1880, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1911. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains just above the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1803.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs.

The Dow is currently at 29,823, just a few hundred points below the all time high of 30,214, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,663, just 10 points below the all time high of 3,674 set on 9 November.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading above $45 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our initial target is $50 in the short term, with $55 the next target after that.
​
In gold, support can be found at 1825, 1810, 1800, 1790, 1765, 1750, 1715 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early next year is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1850, 1889, 1900, 1920, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we said we were watching support at 1850 as the key area and that a break of this support was likely to see a sharp sell off towards our target of 1780-1790.  This level coincides with the 200 day Moving Average, and is also previous resistance from early summer 2020, meaning it is now an area of strong support.

Since then, gold broke decisively through support at 1850 at the bottom boundary of the triangle consolidation pattern that has been in place since August and sold off sharply to test the 200 day Moving Average as we predicted.  We suspect this level will hold, though there is likely to be another test before the price starts to move higher into December.

Gold is now trading well below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1889, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1920. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains just above the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1795.

Equities continue to surge higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.

Since jumping initially on the vaccine news, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs, particularly as further good news on vaccines is now emerging on a regular basis.

The Dow is currently at 29,886, just a few hundred points below the all time high of 30,214, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,630, just 40 points below the all time high of 3,674 set on 9 November.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading above $45 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our initial target is $50 in the short term.
​
In gold, support can be found at 1797, 1775, 1765 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early next year is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1818, 1830, 1850, 1889, 1900, 1920, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               BEARISH/NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we said we thought the consolidation had a little bit more to go and were looking for a test of the 1780-90 area at the beginning of December in an ideal scenario.  This level coincides with the 200 day Moving Average, and is also previous resistance from early summer 2020, meaning it is now an area of strong support.

Since then, gold has fallen to the bottom boundary of the complex consolidation pattern that has been in place since August and is in danger of breaking to the downside.  This is just what we would like to see for a sell off down to our target over the next couple of weeks.

On a shorter time scale, gold attempted to rally after last Tuesday’s dramatic $100 sell off on the news of a COVID-19 vaccine being announced by Pfizer, however it was only able to rally feebly to the 1900 area before encountering resistance and selling off again.  We are still watching strong support at 1850 as the key area.  A break of this support is likely to see a sharp sell off towards our target of 1780-90.

Gold is now trading below the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1901, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1922. These levels provide resistance in the short term.  The price remains above the 200 day Moving Average which as noted above is currently at 1792.

Equities continue to surge higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all time highs on a regular basis.  Since jumping initially on the vaccine news, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all time highs, particularly as further good news on vaccines is now emerging on a regular basis.

The Dow is currently at 29,320, just 2.5% below the all time high of 30,093, and the S&P 500 is currently at 3,562, just 3% below the all time high of 3,674 set on Tuesday.

Following equities, oil sold off sharply in the first quarter of 2020, at one point trading into negative territory.  Prices have recovered strongly since then and are now trading at around $42 a barrel with a strong bullish bias on the charts.  We expect oil prices to recover further over the coming months, our initial target is $50 in the short term.

In gold, support can be found at 1848-50, 1830, 1817 and 1780.  The recent wedge consolidation pattern is bullish for gold in the medium term time frame and suggests a move towards 2,100 early next year is becoming more likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1884, 1888-90, 1900, 1909, 1917, 1922, 1932, 1965, 2000, 2016 and 2077.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1965 to give the bulls some renewed momentum and a move back towards the all time highs above 2000.