INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND: NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND: BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND: BEARISH
A much stronger than expected Non-Farms Payroll number of 295,000 saw gold crash through support at 1191 on Friday, tumbling as low as 1164 before closing right on the next important support level at 1167.
After a tepid rally on Monday morning, gold turned downwards at 1173 and overnight has made a lower low at 1155. There is little resistance before we reach the 2014 low at 1131, a break of which will see an acceleration of the downtrend with an initial target of 1050.
The bulls are being completely overwhelmed and unless they can somehow get the price back above 1191 and move towards 1223, the bears remain in firm control.
Equities remain near all-time highs, the dollar is pushing sharply higher after a short period of consolidation and is approaching 100 on the index. Also, with oil remaining weak below $50 a barrel, the prospects for gold look bleak – there seems little reason to hold gold right now, apart from the usual “insurance” holding.
Support can be found at 1143-1146, 1131, 1124, 1100, 1085, 1045, 1000, 950, 867 and 806. A break of 1131 would be very bearish for gold and suggest a return to 1000-1050 in the first instance.
Resistance can be found at 1164-1167, 1175, 1180, 1191, 1209, 1220-1223, 1252-1256, 1274, 1285, 1297 and 1305-1308. After a promising move higher following the break of 1180 last year, gold has failed to break the intermediate down trend and is now heading lower again, with the 2014 lows in sight.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for today's trading session.