INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND BEARISH
Gold broke through the first downtrend channel line at 1215 at the start of the month and rallied as high as the 200 week MA at 1246, before retracing for the past few days, finding support in the critical 1218-1222 zone.
The gold price is currently around 1230 with markets eagerly awaiting Janet Yellen’s testimony later today for future direction. Any move below 1218 should see an acceleration to the downside, with 1180 the first target.
Gold remains above the 20 and 50 day moving averages but below the key 200 day moving average, currently at 1263 and until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes. This line is currently at 1315 and moving slowly lower.
Oil remains in an uptrend, having rebounded strongly from the 2016 lows below $30 a barrel and is now trading at nearly $54 a barrel.
Support can be found at 1218-1222, 1207, 1198, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045. The recent sell off and rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
Resistance can be found at 1237, 1262, 1280, 1300 and 1317. Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1317 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.