The dollar remains above 81, which is now becoming established as support - this will limit gold's gains and encourage a continuation of the recent "sell the rallies" mentality.
Equities continue to forge new all time highs and oil is still falling - this is not an environment that is conducive to higher gold prices. We suspect the 200 hour MA at 1297 will cap the gold price on this rally - it would take a move above 1360 to see us change to a medium term bullish stance, coupled with a significant correction in equities and renewed dollar weakness.
A break below 1260 will be very bearish for gold, as it will suggest that the triangle consolidation that has been developing since the 1180 low is breaking to the downside.
Support can be found at 1277-1280, 1260, 1250, 1207 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 as a minimum.
Resistance can be found at 1291, 1300, 1310, 1320-1322, 1328-1330, 1338-1342, 1352-1355 and 1360. A break above 1360 would be the first suggestion of a new bull trend, though it would take a break of 1434 to confirm this was the case, with a target of 1525 as a minimum.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the triangle pattern in more detail and our thoughts for our next trade.