INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND BULLISH
In our last update in early December, we stated that as we had seen a break above 1216 and a successful retest of that level as support, we were likely to see gold rally towards the high 1200s into the year end. Gold did indeed rally strongly throughout December, making a high just below 1300 at the start of January 2019.
Gold has formed a triangle consolidation pattern over the past two weeks, suggesting a continuation of the rally is likely with a breakout of the triangle. The upper boundary of the triangle is around 1295 and a break of this level will likely see a rise to 1315-1320 in the first instance, though an extended rally towards and beyond 1350 cannot be ruled out. Much of the rise is due to dollar weakness and the dollar index chart suggests further downside and a continuation of the recent trend.
Gold is now trading well above both the 50 day Moving Average, currently at 1241, and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1229. The 50 day Moving Average is rising sharply in a bullish posture and the 89 day Moving Average is also rising in parallel. The price has also broken the 200 day Moving Average which is currently at 1249 and is about to be crossed by the 50 day Moving Average.
After making an all time high at the start of October, equities have corrected in a volatile and choppy zig zag pattern, with the Dow falling as low as 21,600 before finding support and the S&P 500 falling over 600 points to a low of 2,341 before recovering.
The Dow is currently at 23,880, over 11% below the all time high of 26,967, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,583, over 12% lower than the all time high of 2,941.
Following equities, oil has sold off sharply and trading as low as $42 a barrel, over 45% lower than the 2018 highs around $77 a barrel. This dramatic sell off is being taken by some as a portent to a global economic slowdown, though the short term effect on inflation will take the pressure off central banks contemplating further interest rate rises.
Support can be found at 1286, 1276, 1265, 1250, 1244, 1228, 1216, 1210, 1201, 1196, 1192, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045. The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.
Short term resistance can be found at 1296-98, 1302, 1310, 1316-1320, 1326, 1344, 1355-65. Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.