INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND: BEARISH/NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND: NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND: NEUTRAL
Gold appears to have settled into a range oscillating around 1200 for the remainder of the year, with trading volumes dropping off as we approach Christmas. Gold has barely made any progress this year, moving in a 250 point range for the year with a high of 1388 and a low of 1131 and likely to close very near to where it started the year.
Considering the chart position as we entered 2014, this must be seen as a good result for the bulls who managed to hold 1180 for most of the year, quickly reclaiming it when this critical resistance point fell in October.
However, the headwinds that have buffered gold all year (strong equities and dollar, weak oil) remain in place - interest rate rises look a long way off and inflation is nowhere to be seen. Geopolitical tensions remain, as ever, and European troubles continue to loom over the markets like a sword of Damocles.
Next year we suspect gold will be in for a torrid time, with the price moving lower and our long term target of 100-1050 being reached. The longer term prospects depend greatly on how equities and the dollar fare, in particular whether the global recovery can continue or falter.
Support can be found at 1193, 1187, 1180-1183, 1175-1178, 1154, 1145-1147, 1131, 1124, 1100, 1085, 1045 and 1000 . Gold has bounced back and appears to be building a base to move higher after breaching the critical 1180 level, in what looks to be a classic "bear trap".
Resistance can be found at 1203, 1207, 1213, 1222-1223, 1235-1238, 1250, 1255, 1263, 1271-1273, 1290-1292, 1300-1302, 1310-1312, 1322-1325, 1333-1335 and 1345. A second failure to break through the key 65 week MA confirms that the intermediate down trend is intact however the recent trading suggests the bulls may be building a base for a rally.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for today's trading session.