INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND: NEUTRAL/BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND: NEUTRAL/BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND: BULLISH
Gold made a new high yesterday of 1255 before retreating back below 1250, forming a "shooting star" candlestick on the daily chart. This suggests that a top is forming here, just below our target of 1265.
This morning, gold is off a few dollars at 1247 with equities well off their recent lows and oil above $82. The dollar is also seeing some buying strength this morning and is also well off recent lows.
We maintain our stance that the recent rally in gold is corrective in nature and after an ABC counter trend rally, we expect the decline to resume.
Support can be found at 1246, 1235-1238, 1232, 1222, 1217, 1203-1205, 1200 and 1180-1183. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term - the failure to break the 65 week MA and the break down of the triangle pattern on the daily chart makes this scenario much more likely, particularly as gold has now reached and tested this crucial support level.
Resistance can be found at 1250, 1255, 1263, 1271-1273, 1277, 1290-1292, 1300-1302, 1310-1312, 1322-1325, 1333-1335, 1340-1342, 1352-1354 and 1392-1395. A second failure to break through the key 65 week MA confirms that the intermediate down trend is intact and a retest of 1180 suggests a break of that level is likely.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.