The next couple of weeks are crucial for the long term trading direction of gold - the trading range is converging on the long term resistance line and 65 week MA at 1330-1340, a break of this key resistance point will see gold rally sharply towards, and probably through, 1500.
However, another failure at this level would see the price fall sharply back toards major support at 1180, a break of which will be very bearish and suggest a return to 1000-1050 as a minimum.
The S&P remains at all time highs, though hasn't yet broken decisively through the 1895 major resistance area whilst the dollar rally continues and oil is trading above $103 a barrel.
Support can be found at 1285-1288, 1278, 1273, 1267, 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term, though this now looks unlikely unless we break below 1250.
Resistance can be found at 1304-1305, 1309, 1314-1315, 1319-1322, 1330-1332, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435. The impulsive breakout above the first down trend line on the weekly chart suggests an end to the intermediate term down trend, however the 65 week MA must be broken before a significant rally can develop.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the long term picture in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.