INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND: NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND: BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND: BEARISH
After touching the lower boudary of the triangle pattern on the daily chart last week, gold bounced as high as the 100 DMA at 1296 before reversing. This morning, gold has returned to the lower boundary of the triangle pattern and is in danger of breaking out to the downside, suggesting a return to 1180 is a likely outcome. A break of last week's low at 1273 would confirm the bearish brerakout move and suggest a return to 1240 in the first instance.
Yesterday saw quiet trading due to the Labor Day holiday in the US, however gold has been on the defensive overnight in the face of a strong dollar, approaching 83 and continuing buying in equities with the S&P now well above 2000.
Support can be found at 1273-1274, 1263, 1257-1260, 1250-1252, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term - a failure to break the 65 week MA would make this scenario much more likely.
Resistance can be found at 1290-1292, 1300-1302, 1310-1312, 1322-1325, 1333-1335, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435. A second failure to break through the key 65 week MA would suggest that the intermediate down trend is intact and a retest of 1240 and possibly 1180 is likely.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.