INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND: NEUTRAL/BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND: BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND: NEUTRAL/BEARISH
The down trend remains intact with gold closing in on the crucial 1180 support level - the bulls are defending minor support around 1205, however the market remains weak. There is little below this support level before reaching 1180, which must hold or the gold price will collapse towards 1000.
The surging dollar and equity rally have put gold under huge pressure recently and although gold had a respite yesterday as equities retreated and the dollar paused, these trends remain in play.
The big news release today is the closely watched Non Farm Payrolls number - as usual a weak number will be bullish for gold and a strong number will be bullish for the dollar and consequently bearish for gold. The recent data from the US has been progressively weak, so gold may get a boost later today.
Support can be found at 1204-1205, 1200 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term - the failure to break the 65 week MA and the break down of the triangle pattern on the daily chart makes this scenario much more likely.
Resistance can be found at 1223, 1231, 1235, 1242, 1257-1258, 1263, 1271-1273, 1277, 1290-1292, 1300-1302, 1310-1312, 1322-1325, 1333-1335, 1340-1342, 1352-1354 and 1392-1395. A second failure to break through the key 65 week MA suggests that the intermediate down trend is intact and a retest of 1180 is now likely.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.