LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 NEUTRAL

After attempting to rally off support at 1237, gold managed to reach the 89 week Moving Average at 1267 before finding resistance.  The yellow metal has since sold off steadily, making a new low at 1236 at the end of last week.

The gold price is now consolidating near the lows, suggesting further selling to come.  A break of the 200 week Moving Average at 1234 should see a  further decline towards 1204.  The price remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed lower.

In our last update we stated that we felt that it was likely that the sell off in gold was near an end and a bounce towards 1300 was probable.  However, gold stalled at the first resistance level and has since sold off sharply again, suggesting that 1200 is more likely than 1300 in the short term.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1281 and will provide resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average and the 89 day Moving Average both at 1302.

Equities remain in the corrective triangle pattern that we highlighted in our previous report, though have moved to the top edge of the triangle and are testing the trendline for a breakout.  As we stated in our previous report, support remains strong and we expect the rally to resume later in the year with new all time highs likely.

The Dow is currently at 25,070, some 1,660 points off the all time high, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,794, approximately 84 points off the January highs.

After hitting a peak of $74 two weeks ago, oil is correcting after a strong rally, however the uptrend remains intact.

Support can be found at 1236, 1214, 1204, 1194, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2017 lows at 1204 is likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1266, 1272, 1281, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                         BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BULLISH

Gold has steadily sold off since the final attempt to breach 1360 in April 2018 and last week finally found support at 1237.

The gold price has rebounded back above 1250 and is currently trading at 1254.  The price remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed lower.

In our last update we stated that we felt that it was likely that the sell off in gold was near an end and a bounce towards 1300 was probable.  This appears to have been correct and a bounce is underway.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1292 and will provide resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1302 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1310.

Equities remain in the corrective triangle pattern that we highlighted in our previous report. Importantly, in the short term, the equity market has changed from a “buy the dips” to a “sell the rallies mentality, however there remains good support and we expect the rally to resume later in the year with new all time highs likely.  The Dow is currently at 24250, some 2,450 points off the all time high, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,722, approximately 130 points off the January highs.

The strong rally in oil continues after the dramatic sell off in May and June 2017 that saw a low of $42 a barrel, with the price of a barrel of oil now trading near $72.

Support can be found at 1237, 1214, 1204, 1194, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2017 lows at 1204 is likely.
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Short term resistance can be found at 1261, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                         BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BEARISH

After failing to break key resistance around 1360 on five or six occasions during the last year, gold has steadily sold off since the final attempt to breach 1360 in April 2018.

The gold price is currently just above 1260 after testing channel support at 1255 earlier today.  The price is well below all of the major moving averages which are all pointed lower.

We feel that it is likely that the sell off in gold is likely near an end and a bounce towards 1300 is likely to begin from around the 1255 area.  However, gold could easily continue to sell off into the low 1200s, with the previous lows at 1236 and 1204 on the radar. A break below 1200 should see a rapid decline back towards the low 1100s, however at this stage we find this an unlikely scenario.

Equities remain in a corrective triangle pattern after making all time highs in January. The equity market has changed from a “buy the dips” to a “sell the rallies" mentality, however there remains good support and we expect the rally to resume later in the year with new all time highs likely.  The Dow is currently at 24300, some 2,400 points off the all time high, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,700, approximately 150 points off the January highs.

The strong rally in oil continues after the dramatic sell off in May and June 2017 that saw a low of $42 a barrel, with the price of a barrel of oil now trading near $69.

Support can be found at 1255, 1236, 1214, 1204, 1194, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term time frame and suggests a move towards the 2017 lows at 1204 is likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1272, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1300 and 1308.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

Our excellent performance has continued over the past 3 months - 25% growth from a notional £10,000 starting position risking just 6% per trade.  Sign up for a money-free two week trial of our gold trading alerts service.

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Good afternoon Subscribers,

That’s three wins in a row over the past week or so, marking a really strong finish to February and start to March.  Let’s take a quick look at today’s trade…

We entered this trade in the early hours – 3:12am on the GKFX clock, at 1326 – with our stop at 1329.6 and a target of 1319. 
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The chart below is the daily – we’ve got the 20-day Moving Average at 1329 and the 50-day at 1327, converging to form an area of resistance.  This put our automated trading algorithm on alert for a reversal set up.

​On the hourly chart below we’ve added the Fibonacci Retracement from the 1341 high to the 1302 low.  Notice that the 61.8 level is 1326.2 – add that to the area of resistance we mention above, and it would seem like a short at 1326 with a stop just above 1329 would be a good trade.

Also notice on the hourly chart above that our target of 13.19 sits just above 38.2 support level of 1317.  On the basis that the 50% level gives way, price should reach 1317.
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The next chart we have below is the 15m – notice here how the 3am bar makes a higher-high whilst he RSI high is lower than earlier highs, giving us bearish RSI divergence.

​Now, of course this bar is in formation between 3am – 3:15am and so the divergence hadn’t formed when we pulled the trigger at 3:12am – had it?

The chart above shows the 5m chart – notice how we’ve got the same RSI divergence setting up.  On this timeframe it’s the 3:05am candle which climbs up to make the new high and therefore ensuring that, no matter what, there will be RSI divergence on the 15m also – giving us a great place to enter.

This one took a little while to move in our direction – but as you can see from the charts above, price rolled over as expected and moved towards our target.  We jumped out a little earlier than planned as the delay in price falling has led to moving averages on the 15m and hourly chart moving towards price to near our target.  We felt this would (and actually it has) build support around 1320 which may lead to a bounce.  We’d rather bag the points than hold out in hope where we’re this close.

We’re currently flat and waiting for our next set up.
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Thanks as always for following us.

Good morning Subscribers,

Another winner yesterday – a quick “in and out” for 50 points.  Let’s take a quick step through…this case provides a great example of how we use information from multiple timeframes to set up a winning trade, in this instance with signals from the 4-hour chart all the way down to an expertly timed entry from the 1-minute chart.

The first chart below is the 4-hour.  Our trade was triggered at 17:21 GKFX time (2hrs ahead of the UK) – notice on this chart where the 13:00 4hr bar closed…right on the line of the 100% fib retracement level, effectively making a double-bottom with the low on 8th Feb.  Because this is on the 4-hour, it will weigh heavily on the lower timeframes.  Also notice RSI is oversold.  So we’re now expecting some sort of bounce.  It’s also worth noting the proximity to the 1300 level…round numbers such as these tend to form natural support & resistance levels.  Again, another clue that a bounce is due.

​The next chart is the hourly.  In the lead up to our entry there is very strong bullish RSI divergence, with some choppy price action in the 3 hours leading up to our trade.

​Similar again on the 15m chart below – bullish RSI divergence and then choppy price action near a strong support point from a higher timeframe (remember what we saw on the 4H) is a strong indicator that we’re going to see the reversal soon.

So far, our “clues” have been a clear area of support encountered on the 4H (double-bottom + 1300 natural support level), backed up by strong bullish RSI divergence on the 1H and 15m charts.  In these scenarios where there are multiple indicators from higher timeframes weighing down we tend to look to the very short timeframe charts such as the 5m or even the 1m to get our trigger...which was the case here.

The next two charts are the 5m and 1m
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On the 5m below, notice how prior to our entry there is very short-term bullish RSI divergence.  Price rallies, but it’s not very strong and soon collapses back to around 1305.  This has lifted RSI higher and so sets up the potential for a continuation of that divergence if price makes a lower low.  We were waiting for that to form to enter.

​On the 1m chart below you can see the same pattern – bullish RSI divergence from around 14:15 followed by a short rally.  We’ve marked our entry on the close of the 17:20 candle…as soon as price broke below the previous lows but posted an RSI low higher than previous lows we knew that it would lead to a continuation of the RSI divergence on the higher timeframe and so was a great place to take an entry a little bit ahead of anyone else.

Another solid win and a great start to March after a profitable February.
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Thank you, as always, for following us! We’re currently flat, waiting for our next set up.

Good afternoon Subscribers,

Our trailing stop was triggered at 1327.2 so we managed to bag an extra 20 points by using the trailing stop on this occasion.  So, from set up to exit let’s take a look at today’s trade.

Our automated trading system triggered in the early hours at 03:08 GKFX time, which is 2hrs ahead of the UK.  Automation has so many benefits for us – it takes the emotion out of the decision making and allows us to trade around the clock, so our overseas subscribers in different time-zones also get trade alerts during their trading day.
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Let’s first look at the set up.  The chart below is a zoomed-in 4H chart – notice where the 200-bar Moving Average is (the red line) at the point we opened (circled in white)…right around 1336.  We’ve also got the 38.2 green fib level at 1336, so a good place to expect a reversal.   Also take note of where the 50-bar Moving Average is (the orange line), just shy of 1339 – this is what was used for our stop.

​The 1H chart below shows that around the same area of our entry we’ve also got the 20hr Moving Average (the green line) providing resistance around 1336.

​On the 15M chart below, we show a new Fibonacci retracement in white – from the 1341 high yesterday to the 1330 low.  The levels on this one were quite close together (which incidentally you can see how that congested price movement through this morning) – but because of the resistance levels mentioned earlier from the higher timeframe charts, you can also see additional weight added to those with the 50% and 61.8% levels from this fib retracement around 1335-1337.

​This trade was triggered off of the 5-minute chart, which you can see below.  Given the levels of resistance outlined in the higher-level charts, when a clear-as-day shooting star was formed on the 5M with price failing to close above the 50% fib level, and also with RSI having entered the overbought zone, we took that as the signal to enter.  Our stop was at 1339.5 above the 50-bar MA on the 4H and we set our target at 1329.2.

After a short climb higher to the 61.8 fib level, price quite quickly reversed in our direction – it’s reassuring when you get early confirmation – finding support at the 23.6 fib level.  This area coincided with the 50-bar MA on the 15M and the 50-hr MA on the 1H.
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As the morning unfolded we had a rising head-and-shoulders pattern form on the 15m, along with the triangle pattern shown in the chart below.  When price broke out of the triangle we put you subscribers on alert that we were changing strategy – initially bringing our stop to below our entry and pushing our target out to give us some time to react if price fell sharply as we wanted to switch to a trailing stop at 1330 when the head and shoulders patter broke.

​Our prediction came true a couple of hours later with price falling sharply.  We switched to trailing stops, again letting you guys know, and watched as price went beyond our initial target to bag an extra 20 points.

​We’re now flat, waiting for the next set up and looking forward to another winning trade!

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          NEUTRAL/BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BULLISH

We noted in our last update that gold was falling precariously close to support at 1233-1235 and that a break of this level would likely see an acceleration to the downside.

Gold broke through the support trendline on 3 July and did indeed fall sharply, however the price found support at 1205 and has since bounced back strongly.  The gold price is currently just below 1250 and has broken back though the trendline, however the price has arrived at the 50 DMA which could provide some resistance, with further resistance at the Fib levels just above 1250.

We feel that it is likely that the rally in gold is near an end and the next leg down will probably begin from around the 1250 area.  The price did make a “lower low” at 1205 and a “lower high” here (anywhere below 1295) will be seen as confirmation of the bearish case.  A break below 1200 should see a rapid decline back towards the low 1100s.

Equities remain in favour, with the rally showing no signs of abating.  Any sell offs continue to be seen as buying opportunities, with the Dow very near all time highs around 21,600 and the S&P at 2,470.

The rebound in oil continues after the dramatic sell off in May and June that saw a low of $42 a barrel, with the price of a barrel of oil now trading near $47.  It remains well shy of the highs around $55 at the start of 2017.

Support can be found at 1242, 1235-1237, 1228, 1214, 1200, 1193, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is increasingly likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
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Resistance can be found at 1249-1253, 1259, 1265, 1275, 1280, 1288 and 1296-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1296-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 NEUTRAL/BEARISH

In our last update we commented that the strongly bearish shooting star candlestick on the daily chart on 14 June 2017 could be the prelude to a protracted sell off that could see gold sell off all the way back down below 1200 again.

Since then, there has solid follow through selling and gold is very close to initial support at 1233-1235 (the convergence of the uptrend line and 200 day Moving Average).  Gold has yet again failed to break out above the 2011 downtrend line and remains below the 20 and 50 day Moving Averages.

The monthly chart for June is particularly bearish and we would not be surprised at all to see gold fall back to test 1174 or even 1121, with a break of 1233 likely to see an acceleration to the downside.

Equities continue to surge higher, with any sell offs being seen as buying opportunities, with the Dow at all time highs around 21,400 and the S&P at 2,430.

 Oil has bounced sharply after a dramatic sell off that saw a low of $42 a barrel and is now trading above $45, still well shy of the highs around $55 at the start of 2017.

Support can be found at 1235-1237, 1228, 1214, 1200, 1193, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is increasingly likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.

Resistance can be found at 1253, 1259, 1265, 1275, 1280, 1288 and 1296-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1296-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.