LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BULLISH

In our last update, we commented that gold appeared to have finally found some short term support at the 2017 down trend line at 1160.  Since making a low on 16 August, gold has rebounded sharply and is currently testing the 1200 level.  We suspect the rebound has some legs left, with 1220 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1233 potential target levels.

A break below 1175 would suggest another test of 1160 and if this level were to fail, a return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.

At present, the price still remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed sharply lower.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1233 and will provide resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1292 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1265.

We stated in our previous report, support for equities remains strong and we expect new all time highs later this year.  This week, the Dow has made new all time highs, as has the S&P 500.
The Dow is currently at 25,795, just below the new all time high, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,861, just shy of new all time highs hit yesterday.

Oil is bouncing hard after a correction to the recent strong rally and is currently trading around $67 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1187, 1175, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1204, 1214, 1218, 1233, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                   BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND     NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND        BEARISH

Gold has been under severe selling pressure for the past few months, with a series of lower highs since April and a rapidly declining price profile since July, however we appear to have finally found some short term support at the 2017 down trend line at 1160.  If this support level gives way, the bears will be looking to take the price of gold back down to the low 1100s and ultimately challenge the bear market lows at 1045 made in December 2015.

In our last update, we stated that the break of the 200 day Moving Average suggested a test of 1204 – in fact, this level provided scant support and quickly gave way, with a sharp decline to 1160 following within a few days.  The price remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed sharply lower.

In our last update we stated that we felt that 1200 was more likely than 1300 in the short term and that has also proved correct.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1241 and will provide resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1294 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1272.

Equities remain in the corrective triangle pattern that we highlighted in our previous report, though have moved to the top edge of the triangle and are testing the trendline for a breakout.  As we stated in our previous report, support remains strong and we expect new all time highs later this year.

The Dow is currently at 25,415, some 1,220 points off the all time high, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,840, just 35 points off the January highs.

After hitting a peak of $74 two weeks ago, oil is correcting after a strong rally, however the uptrend remains intact.

Support can be found at 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1194, 1204, 1212, 1218, 1236, 1266, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                     BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND       NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                   BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND          BEARISH

After finding resistance at the 89 week Moving Average at 1267, gold has fallen steadily without any significant rallies and is currently trading near 12 month lows at 1220 after testing 1213 earlier today.

The gold price is now consolidating near the lows, suggesting further selling to come.  In our last update, we stated that a break of the 200 week Moving Average at 1234 should see a further decline towards 1200 and that is what we are seeing, with 1204 a possible target.  The price remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed lower.

In our last update we stated that we felt that 1200 was more likely than 1300 in the short term and that has also proved correct.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1265 and will provide resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1298 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1291.

Equities remain in the corrective triangle pattern that we highlighted in our previous report, though have moved to the top edge of the triangle and are testing the trendline for a breakout.  As we stated in our previous report, support remains strong and we expect new all time highs later this year.

The Dow is currently at 25,430, some 1,220 points off the all time high, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,815, just 60 points off the January highs.

After hitting a peak of $74 two weeks ago, oil is correcting after a strong rally, however the uptrend remains intact.

Support can be found at 1213, 1204, 1194, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term time frame and suggests a move towards the 2017 lows at 1204 is likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1234, 1238, 1266, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

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LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 NEUTRAL

After attempting to rally off support at 1237, gold managed to reach the 89 week Moving Average at 1267 before finding resistance.  The yellow metal has since sold off steadily, making a new low at 1236 at the end of last week.

The gold price is now consolidating near the lows, suggesting further selling to come.  A break of the 200 week Moving Average at 1234 should see a  further decline towards 1204.  The price remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed lower.

In our last update we stated that we felt that it was likely that the sell off in gold was near an end and a bounce towards 1300 was probable.  However, gold stalled at the first resistance level and has since sold off sharply again, suggesting that 1200 is more likely than 1300 in the short term.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1281 and will provide resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average and the 89 day Moving Average both at 1302.

Equities remain in the corrective triangle pattern that we highlighted in our previous report, though have moved to the top edge of the triangle and are testing the trendline for a breakout.  As we stated in our previous report, support remains strong and we expect the rally to resume later in the year with new all time highs likely.

The Dow is currently at 25,070, some 1,660 points off the all time high, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,794, approximately 84 points off the January highs.

After hitting a peak of $74 two weeks ago, oil is correcting after a strong rally, however the uptrend remains intact.

Support can be found at 1236, 1214, 1204, 1194, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2017 lows at 1204 is likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1266, 1272, 1281, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                         BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BULLISH

Gold has steadily sold off since the final attempt to breach 1360 in April 2018 and last week finally found support at 1237.

The gold price has rebounded back above 1250 and is currently trading at 1254.  The price remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed lower.

In our last update we stated that we felt that it was likely that the sell off in gold was near an end and a bounce towards 1300 was probable.  This appears to have been correct and a bounce is underway.  The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1292 and will provide resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1302 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1310.

Equities remain in the corrective triangle pattern that we highlighted in our previous report. Importantly, in the short term, the equity market has changed from a “buy the dips” to a “sell the rallies mentality, however there remains good support and we expect the rally to resume later in the year with new all time highs likely.  The Dow is currently at 24250, some 2,450 points off the all time high, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,722, approximately 130 points off the January highs.

The strong rally in oil continues after the dramatic sell off in May and June 2017 that saw a low of $42 a barrel, with the price of a barrel of oil now trading near $72.

Support can be found at 1237, 1214, 1204, 1194, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2017 lows at 1204 is likely.
​
Short term resistance can be found at 1261, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                         BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BEARISH

After failing to break key resistance around 1360 on five or six occasions during the last year, gold has steadily sold off since the final attempt to breach 1360 in April 2018.

The gold price is currently just above 1260 after testing channel support at 1255 earlier today.  The price is well below all of the major moving averages which are all pointed lower.

We feel that it is likely that the sell off in gold is likely near an end and a bounce towards 1300 is likely to begin from around the 1255 area.  However, gold could easily continue to sell off into the low 1200s, with the previous lows at 1236 and 1204 on the radar. A break below 1200 should see a rapid decline back towards the low 1100s, however at this stage we find this an unlikely scenario.

Equities remain in a corrective triangle pattern after making all time highs in January. The equity market has changed from a “buy the dips” to a “sell the rallies" mentality, however there remains good support and we expect the rally to resume later in the year with new all time highs likely.  The Dow is currently at 24300, some 2,400 points off the all time high, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,700, approximately 150 points off the January highs.

The strong rally in oil continues after the dramatic sell off in May and June 2017 that saw a low of $42 a barrel, with the price of a barrel of oil now trading near $69.

Support can be found at 1255, 1236, 1214, 1204, 1194, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term time frame and suggests a move towards the 2017 lows at 1204 is likely.

Short term resistance can be found at 1272, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1300 and 1308.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

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Good afternoon Subscribers,

That’s three wins in a row over the past week or so, marking a really strong finish to February and start to March.  Let’s take a quick look at today’s trade…

We entered this trade in the early hours – 3:12am on the GKFX clock, at 1326 – with our stop at 1329.6 and a target of 1319. 
​
The chart below is the daily – we’ve got the 20-day Moving Average at 1329 and the 50-day at 1327, converging to form an area of resistance.  This put our automated trading algorithm on alert for a reversal set up.

​On the hourly chart below we’ve added the Fibonacci Retracement from the 1341 high to the 1302 low.  Notice that the 61.8 level is 1326.2 – add that to the area of resistance we mention above, and it would seem like a short at 1326 with a stop just above 1329 would be a good trade.

Also notice on the hourly chart above that our target of 13.19 sits just above 38.2 support level of 1317.  On the basis that the 50% level gives way, price should reach 1317.
​
The next chart we have below is the 15m – notice here how the 3am bar makes a higher-high whilst he RSI high is lower than earlier highs, giving us bearish RSI divergence.

​Now, of course this bar is in formation between 3am – 3:15am and so the divergence hadn’t formed when we pulled the trigger at 3:12am – had it?

The chart above shows the 5m chart – notice how we’ve got the same RSI divergence setting up.  On this timeframe it’s the 3:05am candle which climbs up to make the new high and therefore ensuring that, no matter what, there will be RSI divergence on the 15m also – giving us a great place to enter.

This one took a little while to move in our direction – but as you can see from the charts above, price rolled over as expected and moved towards our target.  We jumped out a little earlier than planned as the delay in price falling has led to moving averages on the 15m and hourly chart moving towards price to near our target.  We felt this would (and actually it has) build support around 1320 which may lead to a bounce.  We’d rather bag the points than hold out in hope where we’re this close.

We’re currently flat and waiting for our next set up.
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