The bears took control yesterday, pressuring gold back down into the down trend channel and breaking 1250.  Gold is now trading at the bottom boundary of the short term uptrend channel and is in danger of breaking down and declining back towards 1180.

The dollar surged yesterday, bouyed by the continued tapering of Quantitative Easing to reclaim the key 81 level.  If the dollar can this time hold 81 and move higher, gold will be in serious trouble.

The equity markets remain weak, supporting gold to some extent, with further weakness in equities required for the recent rally in gold to resume and move forward.

Support can be found at 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200, 1188-1190 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1250-1255, 1268-1272, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295.  Holding support at 1250 and a subsequent break above 1279 would suggest an end to the intermediate term down trend, though it would take a close above 1300 to confirm a more significant rally was developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our thoughts for our next trade.

Gold remained unmoved by the Fed's announcement of another cut in Quantitative Easing yesterday, instead finding support from the continuing weakness in equities.  The gains were however capped by dollar strength in the aftermath of the announcement.

Gold is still attempting to break out of the down trend channel though this morning's price action intrdocues the possilibity of a "lower high" and an end to the rally - a break of 1250 will confirm this, though a move above 1280 will revive and extend the rally.

It will be interesting to see how gold reacts to further dollar strength and a bounce in stocks, this will give an indication of the underlying strength in the gold market, which to date has not been apparent.

Support can be found at 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1214, 1210, 1200, 1188-1190 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1268-1272, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295.  Holding support at 1250 and a subsequent break above 1279 would suggest an end to the intermediate term down trend, though it would take a close above 1300 to confirm a more significant rally was developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold retested the top of the down trend channel following last week's breakout, with the price faling as low as 1248 near the 20 DMA before moving higher.

The bulls need to build on last week's breakout to confirm the move, with the bears looking to hold the price here and pressure it back into the channel as equities recover from their recent mini-rout.

The dollar is of course closely watched and the recent failure to break and hold the key 81 level will give the bulls some confidence, particularly if equities fail to recover quickly back to their recent highs.

Gold is at a crucial juncture here, with the chart patterns indicating that down is the most likely medium term direction, though with the bulls on the verge of reversing that likelihood.

Support can be found at 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1214, 1210, 1200, 1188-1190 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1268-1272, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295.  Holding support at 1250 and a subsequent break above 1279 would suggest an end to the intermediate term down trend, though it would take a close above 1300 to confirm a more significant rally was developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our thoughts on the developing chart patterns.

Gold broke out of the 16 month down trend channel on Friday, closing at the weekly highs and apparently on the verge of a major breakout, boosted by tumbling equities and a weakening dollar.

However the new week, which held such promise for the bulls, has not gone to plan, with gold falling sharply yesterday and continuing to exhibit weakness this morning as the bears fight back, desperate to push the price back into the down trend channel and keep the yellow metal in a intermediate bear trend.

It is clear that the fortunes of gold remain tied tightly to the equity markets - the gold bulls need a significant correction in stock markets to unfold before a strong rally in gold can begin in earnest.

With gold tracing out a "flat bottomed triangle" on the weekly chart, we still consider a break of 1180 to be the most likely scenario in coming weeks, though a break of 1300 would see us change our view to bullish.

Support can be found at 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1214, 1210, 1200, 1188-1190 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1268-1272, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295.  Holding support at 1250 and a subsequent break above 1279 would suggest an end to the intermediate term down trend, though it would take a close above 1300 to confirm a more significant rally was developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold surged higher yesterday after testing the 20 and 50 DMAs around 1232, taking advantage of a tumbling dollar and equities to make a new high for the week at 1266.

Gold is on the verge of breaking out of the major 16 month down trend channel which would be a significant event.  A move above 1300 would suggest a bottom was and a new rally leg was about to unfold.  However, there is a huge amount of resistance above the current price before that can be considered a real possibility.

It is interesting to see how entwined the fortunes of gold and equities have become, with gold struggling for all of 2013 as stocks made successive all time highs.  We maintain our stance that a major rally in gold cannot begin unless or until we see a major corection in the stock market.

Support can be found at 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1218, 1214, 1210, 1200, 1190, 1188 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1268-1270, 1277-1280 and  1291-1295.  A break above 1268  would suggest an end to the short term down trend, though it would take a break of 1300 to suggest a more significant rally was developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our thoughts for our next trade.

Gold traded in a narrow range yesterday with US markets closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday, backing off from the overnight high of 1262 and testing 1250 on the downside.

This morning, gold is close to unchanged, though with a slight downward bias, under pressure from upbeat equities and a stronger dollar.

Although gold has made a spirited start to 2014, the trading environment is bearish for the yellow metal as long as equities remain in bullish mode and the dollar rallies.  The fact that oil, the most widely traded and important commodity on the planet, is trading near $93 a barrel suggests that inflation concerns are negligible - with rising interest rates, this makes the task for the gold bulls even more difficult.

Support can be found at 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1218, 1214, 1210, 1200, 1190, 1188 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1268-1270, 1277-1280 and  1291-1295.  A break above 1268  would suggest an end to the short term down trend, though it would take a break of 1300 to suggest a more significant rally was developing.

Today's video or subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our thoughts for our next trade.

Gold hit a high of 1262 overnight, touching the upper boundary of the down trend channel on the daily chart and finding resistance there as would be expected.

The price has drifted back to 1254 this morning in quiet trading due to the Martin Luther King holiday in the US, with equities flat, oil down a little and the dollar holding the key 81 level.

The environment remains challenging for gold, with the strong dollar capping the recent gold rally and the continued rally in equities drawing investment funds away from gold and commodities.  The weak oil price signals a subdued inflationary environment and, with rising interest rates, gold is bound to find the going tough.

We suspect gold has made a high for this rally at 1262 and we anticipate a retest of 1180 in the next few weeks.

Support can be found at 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1218, 1214, 1210, 1200, 1190, 1188 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1268-1270, 1277-1280 and  1291-1295.  A break above 1268  would suggest an end to the short term down trend, though it would take a break of 1300 to suggest a more significant rally was developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our thoughts for the next few weeks of trading.

In a quiet week of trading, gold is a handful of dollars down after moving in a narrow $20 range all week, with the 200 hour MA providing support.

The down trend remains the dominant force in the market and gold will continue to struggle as long as equities perform strongly and the dollar attracts buyers.

The dollar is again attempting to breach the key 81 level this week and the bulls will be looking for a close above this level today.  This would be an ominous signal for gold.

The bulls have been unable to build on their momentum after last week's abysmal Non-Farms Payroll jobs number, finding strong resistance at the long term down trend line at 1255.  We expect lower prices next week as "normal service" resumes in gold.

Support can be found at 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1218, 1214, 1210, 1200,  1190, 1188  and 1180. A break of 1180 would have  serious bearish implications  for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be  found at  1250-1255, 1268-1270, 1277-1280 and  1291-1295.  A break above 1268  would suggest an end to the short term down trend, though it would take a break of 1300 to suggest a more significant rally was developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading and the bigger picture for gold in more detail.

Gold found resistance yesterday at the long term down trend line near 1255 and fell back to trade around 1240 by the close.  Equities recovered from the recent sell off and the dollar climbed following Friday's shock NFP release that seems to have been just a blip in the overall prevailing trends.

This morning, gold is under mild pressure as the dollar finds more strength and nears the key 81 level that the bulls must regain to tip the scales in their favour.  It is interesting that oil remains weak and inflation very subdued, making a strong rally in gold less likely.

Equities remain near all time highs and it is clear that further equity strength will be bearish for gold - we suspect that gold will turn over here and retest 1180 within a couple of weeks.

Support can be found at 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1218, 1214, 1210, 1200, 1190, 1188 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1250-1255, 1268-1270, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295.  A break above 1268 would suggest an end to the short term down trend, though it would take a break of 1300 to suggest a more 
significant rally was developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our thoughts on the medium term prospects for gold.

Gold received a boost on Friday after a much weaker than expected Non Farms Payroll number was released (74,000 new jobs v 200,000 expected), with the price surging $20 higher and the dollar coming under pressure as the tapering of QE came into question. 

Bizarrely, the unemployment rate collapsed to 6.7%, a sign perhaps of people leaving the employment market and giving up on finding a job.

However, we consider this to be a temporary blip and expect the rally will be seen as an opportunity to open frsh shorts and close out on longs.  The high overnight was 1255 and we do not expect 1260 to be breached.

In addition, gold has now reached the long term down trend line on the weekly chart which should hold the price.

The dollar was making headway above the 81 level before the NFP shock, the bulls will be eager to push the index back above that key level this week, whilst stocks continue to steadily climb higher.

Support can be found at 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1218, 1214, 1210, 1200, 1190, 1188 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1250-1255, 1268-1270, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295.  A break above 1268 would suggest an end to the short term down trend, though it would take a break of 1300 to suggest a more 
significant rally was developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our throughts for our next trade.