Gold continues to consolidate below 1250 at the upper boundary of the down trend channel, with the 200 hour MA continuing to provide a ceiling for the price.

We expect another quiet day of trading today as US traders extend their Thanksgiving holiday to the weekend.

Next week, with traders returning to their desks, we should see more volatility.  We expect the bearish theme to continue in gold after the pause this week, with a test of 1180 a real possibility in coming days.

The virtually flat trading is also apparent in oil, the dollar and equities as would be expected.

Support can be found at 1240, 1235, 1225, 1220, 1238, 1250, 1207-1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1250, 1260, 1270, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295.  A break above 1295 would suggest an end to the down trend, though it would take a break of 1360 to confirm this was the case.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading  and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold reversed course at the upper boundary of the down trend channel yesterday and retraced most of Monday's rally, closing around 1238 and posting a bearish "shooting star" candlestick on the daily chart.

This morning, the trading is quiet as expected with Thanksgiving in the US.  Gold is trading in a narrow range either side of 1240.

It is clear that any rallies are being pounced upon as selling opportunities and the "easy money" in gold is to be made on the short side at the moment.  The 200 hour MA is tracking the upper boundary of the down trend channel and has acted as resistance for the last month.

The sharp selling in oil continues, with far higher than forecast crude inventories prompting another wave of selling yesterday.  Equities remain at or near all time highs, whilst we see that the dollar is weak and cannot regain the key 81 level.  Gold's poor performance in light of the dollar's weakness is ominous for the gold bulls - any sharp dollar rally will see gold plunge lower and make a revisit to 1180 a virtual certainty.

Support can be found at 1235, 1225, 1220, 1238, 1250, 1207-1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1244, 1250, 1260, 1270, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295.  A break above 1295 would suggest an end to the downtrend, though it would take a break of 1360 to confirm this was the case.

Today's video for subscribers looks at yesterday's trading in detail and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold moved back to the upper boundary of the down trend channel early yesterday before dropping back to 1240 during the afternoon session.  This morning, gold has moved back to the top of the channel and is attempting to break through, although there is significant resistance overhead, initially at the 200 hour MA.

It may be that gold is moving up to "back test" the break down out of the triangle pattern - if this is the case, gold could move as high as 1280 before dropping sharply to new lows.

Oil remains very weak and is suggesting a total lack of inflationary concerns, whilst the dollar is weaker this morning having failed to hold 81 last week.

Equities remain at or near all time highs, with no signs of momentum waning or a topping process - we continue to assert that no meaningful rally will occur in gold unless or until stocks correct significantly.

Support can be found at 1250, 1238-1242, 1225, 1220, 1238, 1250, 1207-1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1260, 1270, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295.  A break above 1295 would suggest an end to the downtrend, though it would take a break of 1360 to confirm this was the case.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and discusses our strategy for our next trade.

After hitting a 4 month low at 1225 in early trading yesterday, gold recovered to close the day slightly up at 1253.  The price remains within a well established down trend, though is currently at the upper boundary of the channel, with the 200 hour MA coming in at 1263 providing further resistance.

We expect the down trend to continue through December, though it is worth noting that the dollar is struggling to regain 81 - further dollar weakness could give gold a boost and a break of the down trend channel would suggest a move back up towards 1300 was likely.

Equities remain strong, with December a historically favourable month for the stock market, whilst the continued weakness in oil suggests inflation is not a concern at all in the short/medium term.

The trading will start to quieten down as we approach Thanksgiving on Thursday, with many traders starting to leave their desks on Wednesday afternoon.  A word of caution - the thin trading conditions can lead to exaggerated moves in the markets, particularly if any unexpected news events transpire.

Support can be found at 1225, 1220, 1238, 1250, 1207-1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1260, 1270, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295.  A break above 1295 would suggest an end to the downtrend, though it would take a break of 1360 to confirm this was the case.

Today's video for subscribers looks at yesterday's trading and the down trend channel in more detail.

After closing near the weekly lows on Friday, resulting in a large red candle on the weekly chart, the selling in gold has continued this morning with the price falling below last week's low.

Overnight the low was 1225 - the price is currently 1231 with the bears gunning for major support at 1180 as their next target.

The dollar is stronger this morning, as are equities, whilst oil remains weak - it appears that the same trading pattern as last week is establishing itself again in what will be a holiday shortened week.  With Thanksgiving on Thursday, traders are likely to take Friday off and we would expect little price movement as we approach the end of the week.

Gold is running out of support levels before we test 1180, with 1207-1210 the only meaningful support.  The round number at 1200 may provide some support, however we suspect the bears have got the bit between their teeth and will force a test of 1180 as a minimum.

Support can be found at 1225, 1220, 1207-1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1238, 1250, 1260, 1270, 1277-1280 and 1291-1295.  A break above 1295 would suggest an end to the downtrend, though it would take a break of 1360 to confirm this was the case.

Today's video for subscribers looks at last week's trading in detail and examines the longer term implications of the break below 1250.

The selling in gold continued yesterday, with a low being made at 1236 and 1250 being tested and confirmed as near term resistance.  This morning, gold is continuing to drift lower in quiet trading, though is so far holding above yesterday's low.

This week is shaping up to be a large red candle for gold on the weekly chart, and with RSI on the weekly chart well above oversold levels, lower prices seem highly likely for the rest of the year.

This is historically a strong period of the year for gold and the poor performance is worrying for the bulls, with subdued Indian demand (due largely to government policy) clearly evident, although Chinese demand for gold appears as robust as ever.

The renewed dollar strength, surging equity markets, weak oil and commodities in general and rising interest rates are all conspiring to remove gold's lustre, with investment interest dropping steadily all year with the price.

Support can be found at 1220, 1207 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1250, 1260, 1270, 1277-1280, 1291-1295, 1300, 1310, 1320-1322, 1328-1330, 1338-1342, 1352-1355 and 1360.  A break above 1338-1340 would suggest a new bull trend was underway, though it would take a break of 1434 to confirm this was the case, with a target of 1525 as a minimum.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in detail and our targets for this current decline.

Gold started off on a weak note yesterday, breaching last week's low briefly in early trading.  The selling pressure continued throughout the afternoon as traders waited nervously for the release of the FOMC minutes, with gold dropping towards the key 1250 support level.

The FOMC minutes kept open the possibility of December tapering and gold fell sharply, crashing through 1250 and closing near the lows of the day around 1245.  The weak tone has continued this morning, with gold still trading under 1250 and consolidating near yesterday's lows.

The price has broken decisively below the bottom boundary of the triangle consolidation and unless it can stage a rebound today, lower prices (and possibly much lower prices) are highly likely.  There is little in the way of support below the market before we get to 1180, with only 1220 and 1207 providing any hope for the gold bulls, who will desperately want to reclaim 1250 today.

The dollar surged last night, breaking back above 81 and looking to build on recent gains, oil remains weak and equities remain near all time highs.  This is not an environment where gold will shine, with perhaps the only hope being the overwhelmingly bearish sentiment providing a "contrarian" play.

Support can be found at 1220, 1207 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1250, 1260, 1270, 1277-1280, 1291-1295, 1300, 1310, 1320-1322, 1328-1330, 1338-1342, 1352-1355 and 1360.  A break above 1338-1340 would suggest a new bull trend was underway, though it would take a break of 1434 to confirm this was the case, with a target of 1525 as a minimum.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our thoughts for our next trade.

Gold was unchanged in quiet trading yesterday as the price moved along the lower boundary of the triangle pattern for the third day in a row.  This type of price action often precedes a break of support and we expect the triangle to resolve itself to the down side shortly.

The release of the FOMC minutes at 7pm UK time this evening may provide some impetus to gold and we could see heightened volatility around the release as traders look for clues that QE tapering is still on the cards, notwithstanding incoming Fed Chairman Yellen's confirmation that it is not likely this year.

Equities continue their inexorable march higher, whilst oil flounders and the dollar remains pinned below the key 81 level.  Again, we can look to silver for clues to gold's next move - silver has already breached October's lows in a move that we suspect will soon be replicated by gold.

Support can be found at 1270, 1260, 1250, 1207 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term.

Resistance can be found at 1277-1280, 1291, 1295, 1300, 1310, 1320-1322, 1328-1330, 1338-1342, 1352-1355 and 1360.  A break above 1338-1340 would suggest a new bull trend was underway, though it would take a break of 1434 to confirm this was the case, with a target of 1525 as a minimum.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the triangle consolidation pattern in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold fell steadily yesterday, failing to build on last week's "hammer" candlestick and dropping back to test the lower boundary of the large consolidation triangle once more.  A close around these levels will invalidate the "hammer" as a bullish signal and suggest a downside break of the triangle could come sooner than we thought.

A break of 1260 would confirm to us that the next down leg was beginning, though we will be keeping an eye on the dollar, which has failed to hold the 81 level and is currently trading around 80.75.  Ideally, we would like to see a break of the triangle in gold correspond with a resumption of the dollar rally above 81.

Oil remains weak, trading near $93 a barrel and equities continue to move higher, with the S&P breaking 1800 briefly yesterday.  Silver has already broken below its 15 October low and looks to be leading gold lower, with a retest of $18 on the cards.

Support can be found at 1270, 1260, 1250, 1207 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 as a minimum.

Resistance can be found at 1277-1280, 1291, 1295, 1300, 1310, 1320-1322, 1328-1330, 1338-1342, 1352-1355 and 1360.  A break above 1338-1340 would suggest a new bull trend was underway, though it would take a break of 1434 to confirm this was the case, with a target of 1525 as a minimum.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold ended the week around 1283 after a quiet session on Friday, with the weekly chart showing a bullish "hammer" candlestick that suggests a short term bottom is in.

We therefore expect the price to rise towards the upper boundary of the triangle consolidation pattern around 1335-1340 over the coming trading sessions, though our bias remains with an eventual downside breakout of the triangle and lower prices.

The dollar has slipped marginally below 81 and the gold bulls will be watching closely for confirmation of a failure to hold this key level.  Oil remains weak, signalling a lack of inflationary worries and equities are still at or near all time highs with the S&P pushing against 1800.

Support can be found at 1277-1280, 1260, 1250, 1207 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 as a minimum.

Resistance can be found at 1291, 1295, 1300, 1310, 1320-1322, 1328-1330, 1338-1342, 1352-1355 and 1360.  A break above 1360 would suggest a new bull trend was underway, though it would take a break of 1434 to confirm this was the case, with a target of 1525 as a minimum.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the triangle consolidation in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.