LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BULLISH

In our last update, we noted that gold had successfully retested the 200 day Moving Average and bounced off this key level, though the gains were being restricted by a resurgent dollar and continuing equity market strength.  We also noted that the most recent high at 1875 coincided with the 89 day Moving Average.

In summary, gold was stuck in a trading range with the 89 day Moving Average at the top and the 200 day moving Average at the bottom.  A break out of this range would suggest a large move in the direction of the break.

Since then, gold sold off sharply on 4 February and broke decisively through the 200 day Moving Average, falling as low as 1785 before finding support and moving higher, notably breaking back through the 200 day Moving Average a couple of days later.  This is a bullish development and gold is now poised to test the upper boundary of the trading range and the 89 day Moving Average, currently at 1869.

A break of this level will suggest further strength and a retest of 1900, however we would advise caution as the Chinese New Year holiday is this Friday and for the following week Chinese gold buyers will be absent.  This period is always precarious for gold as the bears often use this opportunity attempt to force the price lower.

As stated above, the 89 day Moving Average is now at 1869, with the 50 day Moving Average at 1851.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1830 is the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After a shallow pullback at the end of January, the Dow is currently at 31500 after making a new all time high today and the S&P 500 is currently at 3930, just below the all-time high of 3935 achieved earlier today.

Oil prices continue to recover strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading well above our price target of $55 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $55 has been hit and we are now targeting $60.

In gold, support can be found at 1833, 1820, 1800, 1785, 1765, 1750 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,150 early this year is likely.

​Short term resistance can be found at 1875, 1884, 1900, 1930, 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.

LONG TERM TREND                             BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND               NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND                           NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH

In our last update, we noted that the gold price was attempting to stabilise above the key 200 day Moving Average and trying to move higher from this level of support and a tentative uptrend channel had been formed on a very short term time frame.

We also noted that the bounce in the dollar would need to be watched carefully, as further strength could cap any rallies.  It was also noted that a decisive break of this key support level will likely see a return to the 1770 region and potentially a test of the bottom of the downtrend channel at 1700.

Since then, gold has retested the 200 day Moving Average and bounced again, though the gains have been restricted due to a resurgent dollar and continuing equity market strength.  The high over the period has been 1875, tested twice and also coinciding with the 89 day Moving Average.

In summary, gold has been stuck in a range with the 89 day Moving Average at the top and the 200 day moving Average at the bottom.  A break out of this range would suggest a large move in the direction of the break.

The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1873 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1856.  The 200 day Moving Average at 1820 is now the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.  As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.

After a shallow pullback in the last week or so, the Dow is currently at 30737 and within striking distance of the all time high of 31259 set a month ago and the S&P 500 is currently at 3830, just below the all-time high of 3831 achieved last month.

Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading at $55 a barrel for the first time since March.  The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months.  Our target of $55 has been hit and we are now targeting $60.
​
In gold, support can be found at 1832, 1820, 1800, 1765, 1750 and 1700.  In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.