LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 NEUTRAL/BEARISH

In our last update we commented that the strongly bearish shooting star candlestick on the daily chart on 14 June 2017 could be the prelude to a protracted sell off that could see gold sell off all the way back down below 1200 again.

Since then, there has solid follow through selling and gold is very close to initial support at 1233-1235 (the convergence of the uptrend line and 200 day Moving Average).  Gold has yet again failed to break out above the 2011 downtrend line and remains below the 20 and 50 day Moving Averages.

The monthly chart for June is particularly bearish and we would not be surprised at all to see gold fall back to test 1174 or even 1121, with a break of 1233 likely to see an acceleration to the downside.

Equities continue to surge higher, with any sell offs being seen as buying opportunities, with the Dow at all time highs around 21,400 and the S&P at 2,430.

 Oil has bounced sharply after a dramatic sell off that saw a low of $42 a barrel and is now trading above $45, still well shy of the highs around $55 at the start of 2017.

Support can be found at 1235-1237, 1228, 1214, 1200, 1193, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is increasingly likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.

Resistance can be found at 1253, 1259, 1265, 1275, 1280, 1288 and 1296-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1296-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                         NEUTRAL/BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BEARISH

Following the entirely unsurprising announcement of another interest rate hike by the Fed, Gold sold off sharply, giving a very bearish candlestick on the daily chart that is eerily similar to that printed in early November 2016 following the US election.

This could well be the start of another protracted sell off that could see gold sell off all the way back down to 1200 again – if today’s follow through selling pressure is anything to go by then this looks a good bet.

Gold has yet again failed to break out above the 2011 downtrend line and has broken below the 20 and 50 day Moving Averages.  The 200 day MA at 1240 will provide a key test of gold’s direction of travel and a break below will suggest a test of the upward sloping trendline at 1228 as a minimum.

The recent surge in inflation both in the UK and US has not yet provided a boost to gold, however this may be due to the prospects of further interest rate hikes being dampened following recent weak US data.

Equities have surged higher in recent trading sessions, with the Dow at all time highs around 21,300 and the S&P at 2,420.

Oil has corrected sharply in recent weeks and is now below $45 a barrel after making highs around $55 a barrel at the start of 2017.

Support can be found at 1251, 1240, 1228, 1214, 1200, 1193, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is increasingly likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
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Resistance can be found at 1265, 1275, 1280, 1288 and 1296-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1296-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.