Gold appears to have formed a classic "3 river evening star" reversal pattern on the daily chart that suggests a top is in on a short term basis at 1434.  The price has followed through to the downside this morning, piercing 1400 and currently trading at 1395.

However, it is possible that we are at the beginning of a significant new bull market rally leg in gold from the 1180 bottom in June - if this is the case, we will have a great opportunity to open a long position following this correction.

There are a few signs that this could be case which we have discussed in our videos to subscribers recently.  We are entering a seasonally strong period of the year for gold and the charts are looking far more constructive for the bulls than they were a month ago, though gold has had a very strong run and a period of consolidation would be healthy at this time.

For now, it is clear that the "Syria" effect has died down as both gold and oil have dropped back from their elevated levels earlier in the week - both are trading back where they were on Monday.  However, this may be a temporary reprieve as tensions can flare up again at any time.

Equities have stabilised after the sharp selling at the start of the week and the dollar's rally may prove to be short-lived.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold sold off yesterday after spiking as high as 1434 in early trading yesterday, forming a bearish "shooting star" candlestick on the daily chart that suggests a short term top may have been put in.

With the Syrian crisis no closer to being resolved and the course of action unknown at this stage, there is potential for gold to spike higher once more along with oil.

However, this morning gold is down further at 1407 and oil has sold off back below $109 a barrel.  The dollar is finding some strength and equities have stabilised after a sharp sell off recently.

Support comes in at 1400, 1390, 1385, 1350 and 1340, with resistance at 1431-1434, 1450 and 1488.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold surged higher yesterday, fuelled by the escalating crisis in Syria and oil trading $3.50 higher at $109.50.

The gold price rose steadily throughout the day, hitting a high of 1424 before backing off, however overnight oil has risen above $112 a barrel, propelling gold through resistance at 1425 and onto a new high for this rally at 1432 as the threat of military action becomes more acute.

It is clear that the Syrian situation and the very real threat of war in the Middle East is responsible for this move in gold and as such it is dangerous to try and trade what is an unknown quantity.  However, it is also clear that when the crisis abates, gold and oil will sell off sharply.  This may be some time away and sitting on the sidelines seems to be the best place for now.

Equities have sold off sharply in recent days and the dollar has failed to attract the safe haven bid, with funds flowing into oil and gold.

Today's video for subscribers looks at some possible Elliot Wave counts and our strategy for our next trade.

We commented on Friday that gold looked like it wanted to go higher and a break of resistance at 1385 would see a swift move up to 1400 - that is exactly how things played out on Friday afternoon.

Gold has held onto these gains and is currently trading at 1411, looking poised to challenge the next resistance levels at 1415 and 1425.  Whilst a move up to these levels appears likely, we do not see gold moving much higher than this in the short term.

The yellow metal has enjoyed a strong run recently and the 1415-1425 area offers very stiff resistance - we therefore expect a period of consolidation and a retracement once this area is reached. However, we are approaching a favourable part of the year for gold seasonally so further gains are likely as we move towards the end of the year, with 1488-1525 the ultimate target for this rally.

Equities and the dollar remain weak and this has helped gold to move higher, as has the escalating crisis in Syria, with the US and the UK stepping up the diplomatic pressure and Russia moving in retaliation to protect its interest in Syria.  Oil also remains at an elevated level around $106 a barrel.

It is interesting to see silver lead the move higher in precious metals - this indicates to us that the move could be the start of a new bull run and contrasts with the previous attempted rallies where silver lagged behind gold.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the bigger picture and some thoughts for our next trade.

Gold recovered impressively from yesterday's early morning sell off back to support at 1355 and spent the day steadily rising towards the upper boundary of the triangle pattern.  The market found resistance at 1381, though managed to hold onto gains overnight to currently trade around 1377.

Gold looks poised to break higher - a move above 1381 should see gold move swiftly up to the next resistance level at 1400 and possibly on to major resistance at 1425.

A break of strong support at 1352-1355 will most likely see gold drop quickly back towards the 1325-1328 support zone.

There is little in the way of data to influence markets today, though the escalating crisis in Syria and Egypt may see some short covering as we move towards the end of the trading session.  This may give gold the technical impetus to break higher and set up nicely for further gains next week.

Although gold has had a strong run in recent weeks, the market looks well supported at 1352-1355 and in our opinion wants to go higher still.

Today's video looks at the longer term targets for this rally and some possible Elliot Wave counts on the daily chart.

After a muted reaction to the FOMC minutes, which contained nothing new to give traders an indication of the Fed's tapering plans, gold remains within the recent consolidation triangle.

These triangle patterns are usually "continuation patterns", that is the price will continue in the direction it was moving before the consolidation.  For gold, on the time scale we are considering, this is clearly up.

The triangle should therefore resolve with an upside breakout, with the initial target for the breakout being 1400-1405.  The upper boundary of the uptrend channel is currently at 1407 and there is significant resistance at 1415 and 1425 above this.

Support can be found at 1357-1359, 1352, 1340-1342, 1325-1328 and 1318 below the market, with the current price around 1370.

Equities remain in corrective mode and the dollar is finding a little support around 81, though gold looks to be in a strong position since breaking resistance at 1350 and we expect further gains in the short term.

Today's video for subscribers looks at yesterday's action in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold is consolidating recent gains above 1350 and appears to be in a holding pattern in advance of the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes at 7pm tonight.

The market appears to be forming a triangle consolidation which suggests further strength ahead once the consolidation has run its course.

Whilst we don't expect anything earth shattering in the minutes, we do consider that the market has priced in the start of tapering of QE from September, therefore any indication that this is premature may see dollar weakness and strength in gold.

We note that the recent weakness in equities has corresponded with strength in gold - we have long maintained that a meaningful rally in gold will not be forthcoming until we see a significant correction in equities.

The dollar is still languishing near 81 and has been in an established down trend since 10 July, also helping gold to rally.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

Yesterday was a very quiet day across the markets as many in the US and Europe are still enjoying their summer holidays.  Gold, equities, oil and the dollar all traded slightly lower on the day; but none of them so much so as to cause a news event.

Gold drifted lower throughout the day, from its overnight high at 1384 to a low of 1362 and is currently trading at 1364.  We see this pattern probably continuing throughout today and most of tomorrow before the release of the FOMC minutes tomorrow evening that will likely cause a knee-jerk reaction before the technical plays resume.

Gold has formed a clear uptrend since the June low at 1180, with the top and bottom of the uptrend channel at 1400 and 1300 respectively.  With price at 1361 there is resistance at 1384 and again at 1400, beyond which there is further key resistance at 1415 and 1425 – a breakthrough here would see prices rise towards 1500 and 1525.

Below us there is support at 1358, 1348-50, 1341-43, 1325-28, 1315 and 1300; beneath which there is further support at 1270, 1245 and 1200.

On Friday gold continued its move higher having broken through key resistance at 1350 earlier in the week – the weekly chart currently looks very bullish.  There are some areas of concern for the bulls however, with strong resistance expected 1380-1400 and 1415-1425.  Should price break beyond 1425 we wouldn't be surprised to see it return to 1500 and possibly 1525 in the medium term.

We feel it’s more likely that price will form a channel between 1400 and 1350 over the next few sessions which may last right up until the next Fed meeting in September.  The uptrend channel that gold is currently in has around $100 of play in it, meaning that price could easily sit between 1400 and 1350 for the next couple of weeks.

On the news front, the only items we see influencing gold this week are the release of the Fed minutes on Wednesday evening and, possibly, any clues on upcoming policy arising from the Jackson Hole summit…although this year the summit seems to be a summit of deputies with Bernanke, Carney and Draghi giving it a swerve – so we’re wondering whether it will have the same market moving impact as in previous years. 

Gold broke beyond the strong resistance level at 1348 yesterday as equities and the dollar tumbled, with price reaching 1370 before falling back a little to its currently level at 1365.

1348 was a key level, as price had attempted to break through this on twice previously in July and August.  As price passed 1348 a lot of stop positions were taken out, accelerating the progress quickly up towards 1360 and beyond.

We now expect to see prices reach 1385, 1400 and possibly 1415 before the next correction.  As gold trends upwards now, for the first time in many months, it looks less and less likely that we’ll see a return in to the 1200’s in the near-term although that shouldn’t be ruled out after the summer as we head towards the September Fed meeting and potential news that QE tapering will commence.