Gold moved in a range from 1302 to 1286 in choppy trading yesterday, forming a "doji" candlestick on the daily chart and providing little in the way of guidance for the future direction of the gold price.

The Elliott Wave pattern is hard to pinpoint at the moment and the price is trapped between moving averages, oscillating between resistance at the upper boundary of the trend channel and support at the 80 and 200 hour MAs in the short term.

However, the overall trend is down and rallies should be seen as shorting opportunities, especially around the upper boundary of the down trend channel.

Equities remain near highs and the dollar is finding some support and moving towards the key 80 level, pressuring gold further this morning.  Today sees the FOMC interest rate decision and statement in the US, which could see some volatility in all markets this evening.

Support can be found at 1286, 1283, 1277-1280, 1267, 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term, though this now looks unlikely unless we break below 1250.

Resistance can be found at 1291-1293, 1298-1301, 1304-1306, 1314-1315, 1320-1322, 1330-1332,
1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435.  The impulsive breakout above the first down trend line on the weekly chart suggests an end to the intermediate term down trend, however the 65 week MA must be broken before a significant rally can develop.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the mixed picture in more detail and gives details of our short term trading strategy.

Gold found resistance at the upper boundary of the down trend channel yesterday at 1303 and fell back to support at the 80 hour MA near 1292 over the course of a quiet trading day.

This morning, gold is under pressure and has broken below the 80 hour MA support, making a low at 1286.  The 80 and 200 hour MAs will now become resistance and the bears will look to press gold down towards the 1283 low from last week as their next target.

Equities remain strong, pressuring gold, whilst the dollar continues to trade well below 80.  This is supporting gold and is probably the reason why we haven't seen a sharper decline in the yellow metal.

Support can be found at 1286, 1283, 1277-1280, 1267, 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term, though this now looks unlikely unless we break below 1250.

Resistance can be found at 1291-1293, 1298-1300, 1304-1306, 1314-1315, 1320-1322, 1330-1332, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435.  The impulsive breakout above the down trend line on the weekly chart  suggests an end to the intermediate term down trend and that a significant rally is now developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our thoughts on the near term direction of gold.

After bouncing back strongly from the 61.8% retracement level on Thursday and continuing to rally on Friday, gold has started the new week in quiet fashion, with the price holding just above 1300.

The 20 DMA, which provided resistance for much of last week, has now become support at 1300, as have both the 80 and 200 hour MAs at 1291 and 1293 respectively.  The bulls will have their sights on the 50 DMA at 1320, whilst the bears will want to break back belo the aforementioned support levels early this week.

The short term picture for gold is bullish, whilst the intermediate trend is mixed with a downside bias.  If the bulls can break out of the recent downtrend channel and continue to rally today, this would be a very positive signal for a return to an intermediate bullish outlook.

There is little in the way of data today, we expect gold to take its cues from trading in equities and the dollar, with the former looking bullish and the latter looking weak, contributing further to the mixed picture.

Support can be found at 1300, 1291-1293, 1283, 1277-1280, 1267, 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term, though this now looks unlikely unless we break below 1250.

Resistance can be found at 1304-1306, 1314-1315, 1320-1322, 1330-1332, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435.  The impulsive breakout above the down trend line on the weekly chart suggests an end to the intermediate term down trend and that a significant rally is now developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at last week's trading in more detail and some possible Elliott Wave scenarios.

Should 1330 be breached we expect to see prices to climb back toward 1400, with resistance at 1350-55 and 1395-1400.

A close below 1275 will see price fall quickly to 1260, 1240 and 1220…then maybe back to 1180 if 1200 gives way.

Our current assessment is that a move north looks more likely – yesterday’s very minor breach of the previous low with a quick recovery gives a good indication that the bulls are building a base here from which an assault back toward 1400 can be attempted.

As traders return to their desks after the long Easter break very little has changed with the gold picture since last week.

There is strong support formed by a combination of Fibonacci level, moving average and previous low support for gold at 1288 and again around 1275-1280, with resistance at 1300-1305 also provided by Fib levels and MA’s.  

This forms a fairly narrow range through which we wouldn’t be surprised to see gold trade for the rest of this week given the scarcity of news and lower than normal trading volumes due to extended holidays.

If gold falls below 1275, we see support again around 1250-55, 1237-40, 1210, 1200 and 1180.  Should 1180 give way we’re into new territory and we’d expect a big fall down towards the $1000 area. 

We’re not expecting to see that though – our current view is that gold will move north from here up to around 1320-1330 and, should that resistance crumble we see price moving towards 1400 encountering more resistance at 1350, 1392-95 and 1400.

Gold oscillated around 1300 yesterday in quiet trading, finding support at 1293 and resistance at the 50% retracement of the April rally around 1304.  The bulls must break above this level, which has been tested unsuccessfully several times since Tuesday's sharp sell off - the bears are defending this key level so far.

On the downside, support can be found around the 61.8% retracement of the April rally around 1298 - gold has been trading in this narrow band for the past 36 hours and a break out either way will set the direction for next week.

The dollar remains weak and well below the critical 80 level, supporting gold, whilst equities are still well off all time highs, with tech stocks in particular taking a beating this week.

The extended holiday weekend may see some position squaring and volatility later in the session, though we expect gold to continue to trade in the narrow range until next week.  There is little on the economic slate today, with weekly jobless claims and the Philly Feb Outlook the only items of interest.

Support can be found at 1293, 1283, 1277-1280, 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term, though this now looks unlikely unless we break below 1250.

Resistance can be found at 1304, 1314-1315, 1320-1322, 1330-1332, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435.  The impulsive breakout above the down trend line on the weekly chart suggests an end to the intermediate term down trend and that a significant rally is now developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and the outlook for next week.

Gold was smashed lower yesterday, falling $40 in the biggest intraday decline since October.  The selling accelerated as support levels and moving averages were broken one after another, with gold tumbling as low as 1283 before finding support.

The market rallied impressively after this, closing above 1300 and the 200 DMA, thus giving the bulls some hope that the decline was a one off event.  Overnight, gold retreated below 1300 however as London trading opened, gold has rallied and is trading above 1300 again.

Today is a critical day for gold - the bulls have been rattled and must step up to the plate with some follow through buying to confirm that the decline was a "flash in the pan", with the first target the 200 hour MA at 1309, whilst the bears will defend the overnight 1304 resistance level and look to maintain the downward momentum.

Equities have rallied sharply, as has oil, though the dollar remains weak.  This dollar weakness is likely supporting gold above 1300 and will be key to the performance of the yellow metal in the next few trading sessions.

Support can be found at 1293, 1283, 1277-1280, 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term, though this now looks unlikely unless we break below 1250.

Resistance can be found at 1304, 1314-1315, 1320-1322, 1330-1332, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435.  The impulsive breakout above the down trend line on the weekly chart suggests an end to the intermediate term down trend and that a significant rally is now developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the implications of yesterday's trading in more detail and some key levels to watch.

Gold moved higher yesterday, making a new rally high at 1331 in early trading before retreating back to the 50 DMA later in the session.  This morning, gold has sold off sharply, breaking below the 80 hour MA for the first time in 10 days and falling as low as support at the 200 hour MA, currently at 1309.

The uptend remains intact despite this morning's decline, only a break below 1295 would cause us to revise our bullish stance.

The dollar remains weak, trading well below 80, whilst the correction in equities continues, with the S&P some 60 points off the all time highs.  Oil has declined slightly this morning and is currently trading around $103 a barrel.

Today sees CPI data released in the US, as well as the Empire Manufacturing data and TIC flows.

Support can be found at 1307, 1304, 1298-1300, 1294, 1277-1280, 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term, though this now looks unlikely unless we break below 1250.

Resistance can be found at 1315, 1320-1322, 1330-1332, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435.  The impulsive breakout above the down trend line on the weekly chart suggests an end to the intermediate term down trend and that a significant rally is now developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading and potential areas of support for the unfolding correction.

Gold finished the week quietly, consolidating recent gains around resistance at 1320.  This morning, gold has surged higher, breaking short term resistance at 1322 to trade as high as 1330.

There is a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart, a classic rally is unfolding after a Wave 2 correction that saw gold retrace 50% of the early 2014 rally. 

We anticipate this Wave 3 rally will take the gold price well above 1400, however the first target for this rally is the 1342 March high.

Oil is powering higher this morning, likely influenced by the renewed turmoil in Ukraine.  Equities are correcting after making new all time highs, whilst the dollar remains well below the key 80 level.

Support can be found at 1321-1324, 1314, 1307, 1304, 1298-1300, 1294, 1277-1280, 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term, though this now looks unlikely unless we break below 1250.

Resistance can be found at 1330-1332, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435.  The impulsive breakout above the down trend line on the weekly chart suggests an end to the intermediate term down trend and that a significant rally is now developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail.

Gold made further gains yesterday, making a new high of 1324 in early UK trading.  This morning, gold has retreated to retest the 80 hour MA again as the rally progresses in orderly fashion.  The 80 hour MA has provided reliable support on the short term charts during this rally.

Equities tumbled yesterday and the first signs of a top being formed are appearing in stocks - further weakness would be positive for gold, traders will be watching the 100 DMA in the S&P 500 to provide support.

The dollar remains well below 80. currently trading around 79.50.  A break of the March lows at 79.25 would be very bearish and again positive for gold.

Support can be found at 1314, 1307, 1304, 1298-1300, 1294, 1277-1280, 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term, though this now looks unlikely unless we break below 1250.

Resistance can be found at 1321-1324, 1330-1332, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435.  The impulsive breakout above the down trend line on the weekly chart suggests an end to the intermediate term down trend and that a significant rally is now developing.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our targets for the unfolding rally.