After rising steadily throughout Friday's trading session, gold surged at the open last night, hitting a high of 1353 at the upper boundary of the down trend channel before quickly retreating back to 1340.

The 20 and 50 DMAs are providing resistance around 1350 and are pointing back down again, with the 20 DMA about to cross over the 50 DMA - a bearish signal.

We expect gold to drift lower this week within the down trend channel, with support likely to come in at 1322, 1306, 1292 and 1272.  A break below key support at 1272 will suggest a swift return to 1180.

The moving averages mentioned above and the upper boundary of the down trend channel around 1350 will provide initial resistance, with 1375, 1400 and 1434 the next levels of resistance.  A break of key resistance at 1434 will suggest a return to 1480-1500.

Equities are down again this morning as the S&P 500 continues its mild correction.  Oil is also down sharply and looks to be set to retest $100 a barrel, whilst the dollar remains weak just above 80.

In this environment, it is not surprising to see some strength in gold, though the rallies are being seen as selling opportunities and a resumption in the equity rally and/or dollar rally will see gold fall sharply.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

After failing to breach the 1338-1340 resistance area yesterday and with declining momentum, gold drifted lower for the rest of the day, closing near the lows at 1323.

This morning, gold is again on the defensive and looks likely to retest key support at 1307.  A break of this level opens up a decline towards 1272, with 1292 the only support before this level.  A break of resistance at 1338-1340 would see gold move up towards the upper boundary of the down trend channel, currently at 1354.

Oil continues to exhibit weakness, as the Syrian "risk premium" has now fully unwound and a test of $100 looks likely.  The weakness in the dollar is providing some support to gold, though the inability of the yellow metal to rally in the face of such dollar softness, during the strongest month of the year historically, is a concern for the bulls.

We consider the main negative factor for gold at the moment to be continued equity market strength - funds are being reallocated out of gold and into equities as investors chase yield and until equities correct in a significant way, gold will find few reasons to rally.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our current trade.

Gold climbed steadily yesterday, hitting a high of 1338 and has continued to exhibit strength this morning, however we note that options expiry for the October contract yesterday is likely to be influencing the price.

We may therefore see some erratic moves in gold over the next few days before the "real" trend emerges, though it should be noted that gold is now trading above its 200-hour moving average for the first time this week.

Resistance around 1340 will prove tricky for gold to overcome, however a break of this level should see the price rise back towards the upper boundary of the down trend channel at 1358 - a break of this area will see a retest of 1375 and potentially 1435.

Support can be found at 1329, 1322, 1316 and 1307.  Below this 1300, 1292 and 1272 come into play with a break of 1272 suggestive of a return to 1180.

Equities remain in a strong bull trend and we expect further gains in stocks for the rest of 2013.  Oil continues to show weakness which is not helping gold, whilst the weak dollar is providing some support for gold on dips.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and some key areas to watch for clues of gold's future direction.

Gold fell in early afternoon trading yesterday, finding support at 1307 (being the 50% retracement of the rally from 1180 to 1434 and trend line support) before rebounding later in the session.  The market is in a confirmed down trend, making a series of lower lows and lower highs and looks set to test 1300 as a minimum and 1272 in all likelihood.

A break below 1272 would suggest a return to 1180 and possibly even lower prices - the bulls have their work cut out to reverse this down trend, only a move above 1360 will suggest the decline has been halted.

Equities continue to attract investors in search of yield and we see no sign of equity markets making a top here - we expect many months of further gains before a top is put in place.  Consequently, we can't see gold rallying strongly in the face of such equity strength and in an environment with benign inflation and rising interest rates.

The dollar remains weak and this is likely limiting the losses in gold - however a strong dollar rally would really put the pressure on and see gold tumble.

This week there is little in the way of news to excite the markets and we therefore expect a continuation of the down trend and lower gold prices.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our current trade.

Gold continued to decline yesterday in quiet trading and this morning the yellow metal is on the defensive again, looking to retest yesterday's lows around 1313.

A break of trend line support at 1310 will open the way for a further decline towards 1300 and 1290, with 1272 not far below that.  In our opinion, gold is headed back to 1180 and unless there is a significant correction in equities or a resurgence of Middle East tensions, gold is going to struggle to rally.

The economy continues to improve, albeit in fits and starts, the end of QE is approaching one way or another, interest rates are rising and inflation remains subdued.  This is not an environment in which gold will prosper and the systemic turmoil of the period of 2008-2011 could well prove to be a multi year, if not multi decade, peak.

However, there are many problems remaining in the world economy and the amount of debt still being created in the Western economies is a serious issue that still has not been addressed in any meaningful way - until it has, gold still has a role to play.

We are traders and make money in both bull and bear markets by going long and short, we are unconcerned about gold's ultimate destination or what the gold price will be this time next year.  We trade the charts on a short to medium term basis, with positions open for anything from a day to three weeks - anything longer term is of little interest to us as traders.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading and the "head and shoulders" pattern on the daily chart in more detail.

As we pointed out in our commentary on Friday, we expected the market to reverse the "knee jerk" reaction following the FOMC minutes on Wednesday evening.

This is exactly what happened, with gold selling off sharply all day on Friday, closing at the lows of the day near 1325.  Overnight and this morning the selling has continued, with gold making a low of 1313 before finding trend line support and bouncing back above 1325 to currently trade at 1327.

We expect a complete retrace this week and are looking for gold to retest 1300 as a minimum, with 1272 a distinct possibility and a break of this level suggesting a return to 1180.

Equities remain very strong which is a major factor for gold's weakness.  We have maintained for many months that a significant rally in gold will not occur unless we get a meaningful correction in equities - this does not look likely at present.

Even more worrying for the bulls is the weakness in dollar at the moment, however gold is unable to capitalise on this at all - a warning sign of the underlying weakness in gold.

Today's video for subscribers looks at Friday's action in more detail and our strategy for our current trade.

Gold failed to break resistance at 1375 yesterday and is selling off this morning, with the chart pattern starting to look remarkably similar to the price action that followed the Non Farms Payroll (NFP) jobs report on 6 September.

In that scenario, gold jumped higher immediately following the data release, only to stall a day later and retrace the entire move with two trading sessions.

If this pattern is to be repeated, gold will retrace the FOMC "pop" entirely over the next few trading sessions, however a break above 1375 will invalidate this and suggest a move to 1435 in the short term.

As we commented in yesterday's blog, we still consider the down side to be the path of least resistance for gold with rising interest rates, low inflation and rising equities reducing demand for gold.  Add in the drastically reduced physical demand from India due to government restrictions and winding down of tensions in the Middle East and it is easy to make a case for gold falling back towards 1180.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

The Fed surprised everyone last night by opting not to begin tapering in September, sending gold rocketing higher.  Before the announcement, gold was trading nervously below 1300, within minutes it was testing 1350 and this morning has moved as high as trend line resistance at 1375.

This surge was, unsurprisingly, mirrored in oil and stocks whilst the dollar plummeted lower and is set to test the 80 level.

However, "knee jerk" moves such as these very often unwind themselves entirely within a day or two and we would not surprised if that was the case here - after all, what has really changed?  Tapering is coming, maybe next month, maybe December but the end of Quantitative Easing is upon us.

A break above 1385 would suggest that the head and shoulders pattern is not going to unfold and a move above 1434 will quickly bring a test of 1485-1500, with even higher prices envisaged.

Our view is that gold will continue to trend lower in the face of rising equities, rising interest rates and low inflation, with the possible exception of spikes related to Syria/other Middle East flare ups.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the head and shoulders chart pattern in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold sold off further yesterday, dipping below 1300 overnight and hitting a low of 1292.  The price has recovered back above the round number this morning, though the down trend is firmly established ahead of the keenly anticipated FOMC statement at 7pm UK time this evening.

The dollar has also been selling off sharply in recent trading sessions, suggesting a possibility that tapering will be delayed or perhaps a "token" amount will be announced tonight.  This theory is backed up by rising equity prices, however gold is unable to gain support even in this environment, which is very worrying for the bulls.

The levels to watch remain 1270 as support and 1350 as resistance - traders will be looking to enter positions around these key areas following the FOMC statement, which we expect to provide a lot of volatility later today.

In an environment of rising interest rates, low inflation, a recovering economy and strong equities, gold has few friends at the moment and further downside seems more likely than a sustained rally, despite this being the strongest period of the year for gold prices historically.

We expect a retest of 1180 before we see 1400 again, with a real possibility of a drop towards 1000.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

As market participants await the conclusion of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, gold remains on the defensive after retracing 50% of the rally from 1180 to 1434 in recent trading sessions.

The pace of the decline has been surprisingly sharp, prompting us to consider whether the recent rally to 1434 has been an ABC correction within the wider, continuing, down trend.  The fact that the sharply falling dollar has not lifted gold prices is of particular concern for the bulls and demonstrates the underlying strength behind the recent decline in gold.

A head and shoulders pattern appears to be forming on the daily chart, suggesting support at 1270 and resistance at 1350, with a drop below 1270 confirming 1180 as the next target.

The FOMC statement may result in wild gyrations in the short term gold price and will also affect the dollar.  There is widespread expectation for a start to QE tapering, though some doubt still remains due to the mixed economic data in recent weeks, particularly the weak Non Farms Payroll number for August and July.

Equities are powering higher again, diverting funds away from gold as investors again chase yield.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.