Gold remains in a "holding pattern" around 1330 as traders await the FOMC announcement this evening and a raft of data releases this afternoon prior to it (ADP employment, US GDP, Chicago PMI).

The pattern on the daily chart looks very similar to the price action just before the sharp declines in early May and mid-June and we suspect a similar sharp decline could be on the cards now.

However, a strong break above 1350 would suggest that the 1180 bottom was potentially the low for this decline and a move back up to 1425 would be the more likely scenario.

Either way, we should see some strong price movements today as traders open new positions in the aftermath of the data releases and FOMC announcement.

US equities are still in a strong uptrend, though are pausing near to all time highs, oil is attempting to hold onto gains above $103 and the dollar has stabilised following a sharp decline and looks to be ready to move higher.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the chart patterns in more detail and our thoughts on today's announcements.

After a quiet day of trading yesterday, gold is drifting lower this morning as market participants await firstly the FOMC meeting tomorrow and the Non Farms Payroll (NFP) number on Friday.

In a packed week of data releases, we can also look forward to US GDP, Chicago PMI, ISM, inflation and personal spending data over the next few days.

Gold is struggling to overcome the important 50 DMA and break out of the down trend channel that has propelled the price lower since April - we expect to see some movement this week due to the above data releases and events, with the likelihood of a continuation of the down trend our favoured scenario.

Equities remain strong and oil is holding gains above $100 a barrel - the dollar is stabilising just below 82 and looks ready to move higher again this week.  We believe this will be the catalyst for gold moving lower again and may be instigated by the FOMC statement tomorrow evening.  Any suggestion that tapering is pencilled in for September will see the dollar surge higher.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading and signs that we can use to predict the next move in gold.

Gold appears to be forming a top below 1350, with momentum waning and volumes markedly higher on down days, suggesting the recent rally has run out of gas.

The fact that gold has been unable to rally substantially with a tumbling dollar, down some 4% in the past 3 weeks, is worrying for the bulls.  This is particularly noteworthy when we recall that gold fell by over 11% when the dollar rose by 5% in the preceding three weeks.

We suspect that a dollar rally is imminent and we will see another sharp fall in the gold price when this occurs.  However, gold is trading at an important juncture here, trading right on the 50 DMA and the upper boundary of the down trend channel - if a dollar rally fails to materialise and gold moves above 1350, we could see a strong rally back up towards 1424 and beyond.

Equities are stalling, with Asian stock markets struggling with the news of debt problems and slowing demand in China and US markets pausing after a strong run back up to resistance near 1700 in the S&P.  After a brief period of consolidation, we expect US markets to resume their bull run and make new highs in the coming months.  This will limit any gains in gold, as further funds are diverted to equities in search of yield.

Today's video for subscribers looks at last week's trading action in more detail and our thoughts for the week.

Gold saw a volatile day of trading yesterday, as options expiry days often are.  The price fell as low as 1309 in early trading before rallying into the close, with gold closing near the highs of the day at 1340.

Overnight, gold has fallen back even though dollar weakness persists, which is worrying for the bulls.  We note that recently gold has fallen sharply whenever we see dollar strength, though barely rises at all in the face of dollar weakness.

The bearish RSI divergence on the 4 hour chart is still apparent and suggests that the momentum behind this rally is fading - we expect to see lower prices next week, particularly if the dollar starts to rally as we suspect it will.

Equities are pausing after a strong run up, as is oil.  We expect further strength in both these markets which will pressure gold further.  However, if oil prices start to run away, inflation concerns will re-emerge and economic growth will start to be threatened, which should be gold positive.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading and the technical signals in more detail.

Gold reversed sharply yesterday after failing to break through 1350, falling back below support levels at 1330 and key support at 1322, as well as the 50 DMA.

Gold is back within the down trend channel, suggesting that the recent move higher was a "fake out" and another sell off is coming.  However, a move back above 1350 would negate this and confirm the breakout as valid.

Equities and oil continue to exhibit strength and the dollar bounced yesterday from around the 61.8% retracement of the recent rally.  We expect to see the dollar climb back towards 85 from here, pressuring gold.

Options expiry in gold today could see some volatile and seemingly random moves as traders unwind their positions and hedge their "in the money" options.

Today's video for subscribers looks at yesterday's trading in more detail and our thoughts for our next trade.

Gold surged higher again yesterday, breaking through the down trend channel and the 50 DMA as it hit a high of 1348.  Further resistance above comes in at 1350 and 1355-1360, however above here the market has a clear run at 1425 and from there 1525.

We still consider this move to be corrective - inflation is low, ETF outflows continue apace, the Indian Government has recently placed further restrictions on gold imports and economic conditions are improving in the US, seeing higher interest rates and an end to QE in sight.

We therefore expect gold to resume the down trend once this counter trend rally runs its course and only a strong move above 1425 will see us reassess this view.

Equities remain in a strong up trend, diverting funds away from gold in search of yield and oil is also powering higher on anticipated economic recovery in the US.  The recent weakness in the dollar explains gold's recent strength to a large extent - we expect the dollar to start to rally again imminently.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our expectations for this rally.

Gold thrust higher yesterday, breaking through resistance at 1322-1325 and moving as high as 1340 on short covering and technical buying.  This morning, gold is back below the 50 DMA and trading around 1332.

There is still a huge amount of resistance above the current price before a bottom can be confirmed and the down trend broken - resistance can be found at the 50 DMA at 1332, 1338-1340 and 1350-1360.  It would take a break of 1424 before we considered the down trend broken and a return to 1525 to be likely.

Much of gold's recent strength comes from dollar weakness - the dollar is currently trading around the 61.8% retracement of the recent rally from 80.5 to 85, we expect to see the dollar rally from here and put gold back under pressure.

Equities continue to rise and oil is still trading above $106 a barrel - stocks are still the place to be for investors and until we see a significant correction in stocks, we do not consider a strong rally in gold to be likely.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

After steadily rising in the face of a weak dollar on Friday, gold broke through 1300 overnight, triggering a raft of buy stops that sent the market quickly up to strong resistance at 1322.  Gold has since backed off from this resistance area and is currently trading around 1315.

We do not expect to see gold rise much further beofre the down trend re-establishes itself, with resistance at 1322, the 50 DMA at 1334, 1338-1342 and 1350.

Oil continues its meteoric rise and is now trading above $108 a barrel, closing in on our next targets of $110 and $114.  Equities remain at all time highs, however the dollar has slipped recently, contributing to gold's rally.

We anticipate that once the dollar begins to rally again, gold will sell of hard, as has been the pattern for the past few months.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the key resistance areas above the market in more detail.

Gold drifted higher yesterday in quiet trading and hit a high of 1295 overnight before dropping back to currently trade around 1287.

The current rally looks to have run out of steam and the strong rejection of 1300 on Wednesday will have unsettled the bulls and emboldened the shorts.  There is heavy resistance above the current price all the way up to 1350 and the powerful down trend continues to act as a magnet, pulling prices lower.

US equities hit a new all time high yesterday and oil continues to power higher, trading well above $107 and surging higher on its way to $110 and $114, our next targets for oil.  Interestingly, the strength in oil has not translated to strength in gold - the two markets have displayed very little correlation in recent months.

The dollar is exerting most influence over gold at the moment, though the fact that gold falls hard when the dollar rises and does not rise much at all when the dollar falls is another worrying signal for the bulls.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and the signals we can pick up from the weekly gold chart.

Gold rose slightly after Ben Bernanke's prepared statement was released yesterday, though sold off quite sharply after testing 1300, falling as low as 1270 before finding support.  The price is currently trading around 1277and 1300-1302 is clearly a strong resistance area.

Bernanke's statement to Congress did nto contain any surprises or anything new, however the prospect of tapering QE later this year and into 2014 gave the dollar a boost and put gold under pressure.

It is interesting to see how sensitive the gold price is to dollar rallies at the moment, though the price barely rose at all during the dollar's recent sell off.  This is bearish for gold and worrisome for the bulls (of which there are still too many for us to declare the sell off over).

We have said for many months that a strong rally in gold will not occur until there is a meaningful correction in equities - this looks further away than ever as the US stock markets are testing their all time highs again after a healthy correction back to the break out point during June.

The dollar looks to be stabilising after its sharp sell off last week and, as we have noted above, any dollar strength will translate to gold weakness. 

Today's video for subscribers looks at yesterday's trading action in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.