LONG TERM TREND:                     BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND:    NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND:                  BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND:       BEARISH

After breaking below the key 61.8% retracement level of the rally to 1307 in January, gold has continued to perform weakly, tracing out a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.  The price looks to be headed back to 1167, with the possibility of much lower prices if the 1131 low from last year is breached.

The bulls seem unable to capitalise on any rally and the march lower seems too strong to resist – there is support near 1190 and below that 1180 before the 1167 number comes into view.

Oil remains very weak and is back below $50 a barrel after a brief rally from $44, equities remain at or near all time highs and the dollar strength does not look to be over.

Support can be found at 1191-1192, 1180-1183, 1175-1178, 1167, 1154, 1145-1147, 1131, 1124, 1100, 1085, 1045 and 1000. Gold has bounced back after breaking below the critical 1180 level and is now moving higher after a classic "bear trap".  The break of the intermediate down trend looks like it may have been a fake move in this difficult market.

Resistance can be found at 1217, 1228, 1233, 1240, 1246, 1252-1256, 1271-1273, 1278, 1282-1284, 1290-1292, 1297 and 1303-1305.  The break of the intermediate down trend appears to have been a fake move, with the price now headed lower again.  A break of 1131 would be very bearish for gold and suggest a return to 1000-1050.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for today's trading session.

LONG TERM TREND:                   BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND:   NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND:                 NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND:       BEARISH


The correction in gold since the 22 January high has continued this week, with the price retracing 61.8% of the rally.  The low of 1216 was just below this key support area, however the price quickly rallied back above the closely watched retracement level.


If gold continues to decline next week it would suggest a return to the sub-1200 prices we saw at the end of last year and would be a blow to the bulls who have high hopes following the strong rally in January. The bulls will be looking to defend this level and move higher again, with a break of 1240 confirming that the rally is intact.


Equities remain near all time highs, oil is attempting to move higher after bouncing off $44 a barrel and the dollar is correcting after a strong rally that took the index well above 95 and to multi-year highs.

Support can be found at 1222-1225, 1217, 1204, 1200, 1192, 1180-1183, 1175-1178, 1167, 1154, 1145-1147, 1131, 1124, 1100, 1085, 1045 and 1000. Gold has bounced back after breaking below the critical 1180 level and is now moving higher after a classic "bear trap".  The break of the intermediate down trend suggests a new rally phase is just beginning.

Resistance can be found at 1231-1233, 1240, 1246, 1252-1256, 1271-1273, 1278, 1282-1284, 1290-1292, 1300-1302, 1305, 1310-1312, 1322-1325, 1333-1335 and 1345.  The break of the intermediate down trend line in an impulsive move higher suggests an end to the down trend and the start of a new rally leg in gold.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for today's trading session.