Gold rose in advance of the FOMC statment, though gave back its gains as it fell sharply following the release of a less dovish than expected statement.  This gave the dollar a boost and saw gold form a "double top" at 1360, with the price currently trading around 1335.

We expect gold to fall further from here, with 1320 and 1300 as initial targets, though the severity of the decline will give us a good indicator of where gold is headed in the medium term.  There are a number of potential Elliot Wave scenarios that could be unfolding, as always, and the extent of this correction should shed some light on which scenario is most likely to pan out.

Equities remain in a strong bull trend and the dollar is recovering from a sharp sell off that tested major support below 79 - these are both bearish for gold and the weakness in oil is not helping either, indeed this is suggestive of a general lack of demand for commodities and muted inflation fears.

Support can be found at 1328-1330, 1310, 1300-1305, 1291, 1277, 1260, 1250, 1207 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 as a minimum.

Resistance can be found at 1338-1342, 1352-1355, 1360, 1375, 1400 and 1434.  A break above 1434 would suggest a major rally was unfolding with a target of 1525 as a minimum.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold fell yesterday, making a lower high before closing below the lows of the previous day in what could be a reversal top.  The high of the day was 1360, with the closing price of 1345 near to the lows of the day.

All eyers are on the October FOMC meeting, with almost nobody now expecting QE tapering in 2013, with the consensus now shifting to a March taper.

With equities moving higher and the dollar finding solid buying interest after touching major support last week below 79, gold was under pressure for most of the day.  Today may be quiet in advance of the FOMC statement at 6pm UK time - we do not expect there to be any great market moving news, though any suggestion that tapering may yet happen this year will be seen as bearish for gold.

Support can be found at 1338-1342, 1328-1330, 1310, 1300-1305, 1291, 1277, 1260, 1250, 1207 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 as a minimum.

Resistance can be found at 1352-1355, 1375, 1400 and 1434.  A break above 1434 would suggest a major rally was unfolding with a target of 1525 as a minimum.

Today's video to subscribers looks at the "rising bearish wedge" we identified yesterday and some targets for any correction.

Gold drifted higher yesterday, hitting a high of 1361 before backing off to close at around 1353.  The market appears to have formed a "rising bearish wedge" pattern which is in the process of breaking down.

If this analysis is correct, the market is just beginning a correction - the severity of this correction will guide us with regard to the "bigger picture" in gold and the favoured Elliot Wave scenario that is unfolding.

The markets are awaiting the October FOMC meeting tomorrow, with the prospect of tapering fading rapidly and now far more likely in March than December, however any indication that tapering is still being considered in a serious way before year end will have bearish consequences for gold and be bullish for the dollar.

Equities continue their march higher and the dollar has found support around 79 - these are both bearish factors for gold.

Support can be found at 1338-1342, 1328-1330, 1310, 1300-1305, 1291, 1277, 1260, 1250, 1207 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 as a minimum.

Resistance can be found at 1352-1355, 1375, 1400 and 1434.  A break above 1434 would suggest a major rally was unfolding with a target of 1525 as a minimum.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in detail and our thoughts for our next trade.

Gold moved higher on Friday, breaking through 1350 and hitting a high of 1355 to cap off a strong week and increase the likelihood that the break out of the down trend channel is the start of a new rally leg.  However, until the market can close above 1353, the bears will be hoping to resume the decline and take gold back below 1300.

In quiet trading, gold moved steadily higher for most of the day after finding support at 1336 and has now moved over $100 higher from the lows at 1250 in mid-October.

Although the market looks ready for a minor correction of sorts, a break above last week's highs will suggest a return to 1400 is on the cards, aided by a weak dollar.  It is interesting to note that the recent rally has occured despite a strong US stock market that continues to make new highs on a weekly basis.

Support can be found at 1338-1342, 1328-1330, 1310, 1300-1305, 1291, 1277, 1260, 1250, 1207 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 as a minimum.

Resistance can be found at 1352-1355, 1375, 1400 and 1434.  A break above 1434 would suggest a major rally was unfolding with a target of 1525 as a minimum.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our thoughts for our next trade.

Gold made another surge higher yesterday, though with less conviction than the previous moves, finding resistance at the key 1352 level and settling at the 50 DMA.

The bulls will want to maintain their recent momentum and push throguh this critical level, thus setting up for gold for a sustained rally, whilst the bears will want to cap gold below the 50 DMA, thereby setting up a bearish "double top" at 1352-1353 on the charts.  A break of the uptrend channel, currently at 1341, is the first level to watch for the bears.

The current area is therefore a key battleground for gold that will decide the direction over the next few weeks.  Our preference remains to the downside, however the bulls are having a real go here in the face of a plummeting dollar.

Equities remain on fire, powering higher in a classic rally of higher highs and higher lows with no signs of a top in sight.  Oil has found some support but is now trading below the 200 DMA for the first time since March, a worrying sign for the bulls and commodities in general.

Support can be found at 1328-1330, 1310, 1300-1305, 1291, 1277, 1260, 1250, 1207 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 as a minimum.

Resistance can be found at 1352-1353, 1375, 1400 and 1434.  A break above 1434 would suggest a major rally was unfolding with a target of 1525 as a minimum.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

Gold drifted lower in quiet trading yesterday, finding support at 1330 after being stopped at the 50 DMA on Tuesday.  This morning, gold has again rejected the 50 DMA and is currently trading around 1335.

Whilst the bulls will point to the break out of the down trend channel as evidence of a new rally leg starting, the bears will note the lack of follow through buying since the breakout and the failure to break the 50 DMA and move above 1350.

The dollar weakness is evidently helping gold to move higher and for now the surging stock market is not hurting gold as much as it has in recent weeks.  The plummeting oil price is not pressuring gold either - the bulls will look to this as further evidence of the underlying strength in gold, however the usual correlation between gold and oil has not been evident for some time.

Support can be found at 1328-1330, 1310, 1300-1305, 1291, 1277, 1260, 1250, 1207 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 as a minimum.

Resistance can be found at 1338-1342, 1353, 1375, 1400 and 1434.  A break above 1434 would suggest a major rally was unfolding with a target of 1525 as a minimum.

Today's video for subscribers looks at some possible Elliot Wave patterns and our strategy for our next trade.

We noted yesterday that the lack of follow through buying after gold broke out of the down trend channel was a concern for the bulls, however we saw a further surge higher following a weak September Non Farms Payroll (NFP) number yesterday afternoon.

The NFP came in at 148,000 vs expectations of 180,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate continuing to fall rapidly to 7.2%.  However, it appears this fall is more to do with fewer people actively seking work than a stronger economy creating new high quality full time jobs.

Gold found resistance at the 50 DMA around 1345 and this morning has fallen back to currently trade at 1332.  It would take a break of major resistance at 1353 for us to begin to consider the merits of the bull case, for now we still consider the down side to be the more likely path for gold.

The dollar collapsed yesterday on the back of the NFP release as the prospect of tapering fades away, with many commentators now expecting tapering to begin not in December this year but March 2014 at the earliest.

The flow of information from the US is slowly getting back to normal, though we have lost a lot of the data that provides a picture of the US economy due to the government shutdown this month.

Oil continues to plummet lower, suggesting slower economic activity, lower inflation or both.  Gold has not responded to the falling oil price as we would expect, though the usual gold:oil correlation has not been evident in recent months - oil has been moving in tandem with stocks and inversely to gold.

Equities remain bouyant and are still the "flavour of the month" - until this changes, gold will struggle to perform as we have stated many times.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

After surging higher following the resolution of the debt ceiling and Federal budget debacle in the US last Thursday, gold has traded in a very narrow range with strong resistance encountered in the 1322-1325 range and support around 1310.

The lack of follow through after breaking out of the down trend channel is concerning for the bulls, who will have seen Thursday's move as the catalyst for further gains.  We still consider the downside to be the path of least resistance and, unless gold can break out above 1325 this week, a return to 1300 is likely.  A break below 1300 will suggest a return to test support at 1250.

Oil is falling sharply after failing to hold key support $103, which has now become resistance.  A move back to the 200 DMA at $97.40 is now likely.  This is potentially a bearish factor for gold, however the usual correlation between gold and oil has not been particularly evident recently.

Equities remain very strong near all time highs, a major bearish factor for gold, whilst the dollar appears to have stabilised following the recent rout, with the credibility of the US taking a serious dent following the debt ceiling and budget "negotiations".  We maintain that no significant rally will be seen in gold until we see a meaningful correction in equities.

Support can be found at 1310, 1300-1305, 1291, 1277, 1260, 1250, 1207 and 1180.  A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 as a minimum.

Resistance can be found at 1322-1325, 1330, 1338-1342, 1353, 1375, 1400 and 1434.  A break above 1434 would suggest a major rally was unfolding with a target of 1525 as a minimum.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading action and our strategy for our next trade.

After drifting lower yesterday and finding resistance at 1288-1292 again, appearing to be setting up for the next decline, gold suddenly surged $50 higher out of nowhere this morning, hitting a high of 1320 before receding back to 1305.

We can only assume that this move was an exercise in stop hunting to take out all of the shorts that had piled in expecting a sell off in gold following the resolution of the US debt ceiling debacle.

Until we see a decisive break out of the down trend channel and a number of closes above it, the bears still remain in charge.

Today, a weak dollar and equities have helped to support gold, though not to the extent that the burst higher this morning would explain.

We need to see where gold settles down, particularly when the US markets open this afternoon, however our preference remains to the down side.

Support can be found at 1300-1305, 1290-1292, 1272-1275, 1260, 1250-1253, 1220-1225, 1200 and 1180 - a break of 1180 would be an extremely bearish development, suggesting a short term target of 1000-1050 and a possibility of a drop to 800.

Resistance can be found at 1320-1322, 1330, 1353, 1375, 1400 and 1434.  A break of 1434 would be a bullish development and suggest gold was on its way back above 1500.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading action and our thoughts for our next trade.

Gold continues to be pushed and pulled by the developments in the US in connection with the budget and debt ceiling negotiations, swinging wildly yesterday between a low of 1250 and a high of 1290.

The price remains firmly within the established down trend and a retest of 1180 still appears a likely outcome in the coming weeks, however the "hammer" candlestick on the daily chart yesterday suggests a short term bottom may be in.

The bulls will need to see follow through buying today and a move back above 1292 to get excited, whilst the bears will want to see the price decline back below the key 1272 level.

Any positive developments from the US government will see gold under pressure, whilst continuing deadlock and uncertainty will help the yellow metal and hurt equities and the dollar.

Support can be found at 1272-1275, 1260, 1250-1253, 1220-1225, 1200 and 1180 - a break of 1180 would be an extremely bearish development, suggesting a short term target of 1000-1050 and a possibility of a drop to 800.

Resistance can be found at 1288-1292, 1300-1305, 1322, 1330, 1353, 1375, 1400 and 1434.  A break of 1434 would be a bullish development and suggest gold was on its way back above 1500.

Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.