We want to see the maket move above the recent swing high at 1680 and break the recent pattern of lower highs and lower lows before we take a position in the market and would become fully bullish with a close above 1693.
Some momentum appears to be building to the upside for gold following the recent "double bottom" at 1624. gold is currently at the 50 DMA and has closed above the 20 DMA for a couple of sessions.
We want to see the maket move above the recent swing high at 1680 and break the recent pattern of lower highs and lower lows before we take a position in the market and would become fully bullish with a close above 1693.
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Gold found resistance at the upper channel line yet again and has turned back down from there.
On a more positive note, gold closed above the 20 DMA and has formed a "double bottom" on the short term chart at around 1624. We want to see a close above the previous high at 1680 before we start to get interested in the bullish case. The intial reaction to the FOMC statement was negative, as the lack of mention of further Quantitative Easing prompted a sell off. However, the market found support around 1624 and a "double bottom" was formed on the short term chart.
Gold has risen 25 points since this bottom and is now trading near the 20 DMA. The market is approaching the upper boundary of the downtrend channel, we will watch for how the market reacts at this level. Gold continues in a tight range in very quiet trading, though the FOMC meeting statement could see a large move. The last couple of times gold has plunged following the statement as the likelihood of further QE has been interpreted to be less than expected.
Trying to trade on the day of the FOMC statement is nothing more than a pure gamble, we prefer to stay on the sidelines and see what happens. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows continues in action that is reminiscent of the "summer doldrums" in gold.
May is historically a strong month for gold and we feel that we are not too far from the end of this corrective phase. We remain on alert for signs of a bottom, however our subscribers know our long held target for this cycle and this remains our preferred entry point. The well defined, orderly down trend in gold continues, with the bottom of the channel now at 1590 and the top at 1665.
We remain on the sidelines until we see either signs of a bottom or a breakout of the upper resistance line of the downtrend channel. Patience is a virtue in this type of market, sitting on the sidelines is the best place to be as the market oscillates higher and lower within the channel. Gold continues in the pattern of lower highs and lower lows that has been apparent for a number of weeks now, with the 20 DMA acting as resistance at the top of the range and lower lows being carved out each day as the market declines.
We remain on the sidelines on the lookout for signs of a bottom. We have very little to add from yesterday's commentary, gold remains in a bearish posture and is declining in an orderly fashion within a well defined downtrend channel.
It is interesting to note that, since the huge plunge on 29 February, the price of gold has barely moved and has simply whipsawed up and down, with a downward bias. We have certainly been justified with our strategy of sitting on the sidelines waiting for the next strong trend to develop. Gold remains entrenched in a downtrend channel, with a succession of lower highs and lower lows. Yesterday the market recovered well off lows of 1634, however the momentum was not maintained and the market continues to drift lower.
Gold remains below all of the major MAs and open interest continues to fall with no signs yet of bottoming activity, we therefore remain bearish for the short term. Gold continued to sell off as predicted in our video yesterday and we expect lower prices. There is a lot of resistance above, with the "double top" at 1680, the last swing high at 1693 and the 50 and 200 DMAs above that.
The path of least resistance is down and there is a well defined downtrend channel in place. However, we expect the selling to finish soon and are always on the look out for signs of a bottom. |
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August 2021
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