LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                         NEUTRAL/BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BEARISH

Following the entirely unsurprising announcement of another interest rate hike by the Fed, Gold sold off sharply, giving a very bearish candlestick on the daily chart that is eerily similar to that printed in early November 2016 following the US election.

This could well be the start of another protracted sell off that could see gold sell off all the way back down to 1200 again – if today’s follow through selling pressure is anything to go by then this looks a good bet.

Gold has yet again failed to break out above the 2011 downtrend line and has broken below the 20 and 50 day Moving Averages.  The 200 day MA at 1240 will provide a key test of gold’s direction of travel and a break below will suggest a test of the upward sloping trendline at 1228 as a minimum.

The recent surge in inflation both in the UK and US has not yet provided a boost to gold, however this may be due to the prospects of further interest rate hikes being dampened following recent weak US data.

Equities have surged higher in recent trading sessions, with the Dow at all time highs around 21,300 and the S&P at 2,420.

Oil has corrected sharply in recent weeks and is now below $45 a barrel after making highs around $55 a barrel at the start of 2017.

Support can be found at 1251, 1240, 1228, 1214, 1200, 1193, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is increasingly likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
​
Resistance can be found at 1265, 1275, 1280, 1288 and 1296-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1296-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH


Gold ran into solid resistance at the 200 day MA at 1263 last week and has spent the past 9 trading sessions selling off steadily, following some strong economic data and a rising likelihood, now near certain, of a US rate hike in March.

This, coupled with the fact that other major currencies are far from commencing the tightening cycle has meant that the dollar has surged and the approach of the end of gold’s traditional seasonal strong start to the year has also seen gold under pressure.

Gold is in danger of dropping back toward support at 1180, particularly if we see a strong NFP jobs report tomorrow.

Gold is now back below all the major daily moving averages (20,50 and 200) and until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at approximately 1292 and moving slowly lower.

The gold chart still looks very similar to last year and we would therefore expect a top to be put in place this month – as it stands it appears that the top has been put in at 1263.

Equities have corrected a little in recent trading sessions after becoming very overextended, with the Dow now back at 20,880 and the S&P at 2,365 after surging to new all time highs last week.
 
Oil has corrected sharply in the last few sessions and is now back below $50 a barrel after rebounding strongly from the 2016 lows below $30 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1203, 1198, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
​
Resistance can be found at 1216-1220, 1225, 1244-1246, 1263, 1280 and 1298-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1298-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH


Gold found support at 1216 last week after a short and shallow correction and has rallied back up to the resistance zone at 1244-1246 this week at the 200 week MA.

The gold price is currently in a choppy sideways pattern bounded by 1216 at the bottom and 1244 at the top.  Any move below 1215 should see an acceleration to the downside, with 1180 the first target and any breakout above 1245 will see a move towards 1262 in the first instance.

Gold remains above the 20 and 50 day moving averages but below the key 200 day moving average, currently at 1261, and until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at approximately 1312 and moving slowly lower.

We are in a seasonally strong period for gold and the chart looks eerily similar to last year.  We would therefore expect a top to be put in place between now and mid-March.

Equities continue to power higher, with the Dow now well above 20,700 and the S&P above 2,350.  This would usually be bearish for gold, though the uncertainty around Donald Trump’s presidency is keeping interest in the yellow metal strong.

Oil remains in an uptrend, having rebounded strongly from the 2016 lows below $30 a barrel and is now trading above $54 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1231, 1226, 1216-1222, 1207, 1198, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The late 2016 sell off and rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.

Resistance can be found at 1244-1246, 1262, 1280, 1300 and1317.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1317 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH


Gold broke through the first downtrend channel line at 1215 at the start of the month and rallied as high as the 200 week MA at 1246, before retracing for the past few days, finding support in the critical 1218-1222 zone.

The gold price is currently around 1230 with markets eagerly awaiting Janet Yellen’s testimony later today for future direction.  Any move below 1218 should see an acceleration to the downside, with 1180 the first target.

Gold remains above the 20 and 50 day moving averages but below the key 200 day moving average, currently at 1263 and until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at 1315 and moving slowly lower.
Oil remains in an uptrend, having rebounded strongly from the 2016 lows below $30 a barrel and is now trading at nearly $54 a barrel.
​
Support can be found at 1218-1222, 1207, 1198, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.

Resistance can be found at  1237, 1262, 1280, 1300 and 1317.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1317 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                         BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BULLISH


Gold found support last week at 1180 and has rebounded strongly, moving as high as the down trend channel line at 1215 yesterday.

Today has seen a pause and small retracement after a stronger than expected ADP employment number, however the closely watched Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) number will give more of a steer to the market, as will the FOMC statement later this evening.  The ADP employment number has very little correlation with the much more important NFP number and is often a red herring when trying to predict this number.

Gold remains above the 20 and 50 day moving averages but well below the key 200 day moving average, currently at 1265 and until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at 1317 and moving slowly lower.

​Oil remains in an uptrend, having rebounded strongly from the 2016 lows below $30 a barrel and is now trading at nearly $54 a barrel.
​
Support can be found at 1198, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.

Resistance can be found at 1214-1216, 1220, 1232, 1262, 1280, 1300 and 1317.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1317 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          NEUTRAL/BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH
 
After plunging over $200 following the election of President Trump (yes that's a real thing!), gold has rebounded powerfully in 2017 in a very similar way to January 2016.

Since making a low at 1122 at the end of December, gold has move as high as 1220, breaking above 20 and 50 day Moving Averages, however we remain well below the longer term and closely watched 200 day Moving Average, currently at 1265.

Gold has since started a retracement of the January rally, falling for the past three days and currently trading around 1187 – below the key 1200 level and close to a 38.2% retracement of the 2017 rally.

Until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at 1317 and moving slowly lower.
​
Oil remains strong, having rebounded strongly from the 206 lows below $30 a barrel to trade well above $50 a barrel since the end of November 2016 and equity markets remain very strong with the Dow yesterday breaking above the key 20,000 level.  This is particularly bearish for gold, which has moved inversely to equities for the last year or so.

Support can be found at 1183, 1177, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and rejection of the long term down trend line is very bearish for gold and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely.

Resistance can be found at 1191, 1195, 1200, 1208, 1220, 1230, 1262, 1280, 1300 and 1317.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1317 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

We always plan our trades meticulously, only taking positions where the trading set up has a clear risk:reward profile skewed in our favour – our trading videos can help you identify these set ups and take advantage when the market is in your favour!

Everyone loves the thrill of placing a trade and entering the market – many traders tend to overtrade, placing too many trades that haven’t been planned properly just to be “in the game” and part of the action.

It is a scary and sobering stat, supported by academic research, that 95% of “retail traders” (i.e. the small speculators) will lose money trading the financial markets. 

Little wonder then that small speculators are referred to as “dumb money” by investment professionals and monitored as a contrarian indicator for future price direction.

Financial freedom and the lifestyle you dream of can be yours!  This article highlights what we believe to be the top five mistakes that novice traders make that can be avoided and increase your odds of success dramatically.

It is not sufficient to look at a particular market, choose to either buy or sell and cross your fingers hoping for the best.  

You must devote time to study your chosen market, decide whether the prevailing trend is up or down, what timescale this trend is over and where the points of support and resistance are.

You have to plan where you are going to buy or sell, where to place your stop loss and most importantly where to exit the trade.  Then, once the trade is planned and executed, you must show discipline – you made the trade for a good reason with solid justification, so any changes need equally solid justification.

We always plan our trades meticulously, only taking positions where the trading set up has a clear risk:reward profile skewed in our favour – our trading videos can help you identify these set ups and take advantage when the market is in our favour!

There is a tendency to become too emotionally involved with a trade once it has been placed and to want the trade to succeed too much (don’t “fall in love” with a trade!).

Although we have more losing trades than winning ones, our losses are very small and our wins are big – this one difference, is why we are successful traders.  Our system is designed this way...by preempting big reversals we can minimise our loss but maximise our gains.

If you want to share in our success, check out our products and get started on the road to professional trading!

It seems reasonable to buy low and sell high...and it is.  But trying to predict when that bottom has formed with gold can prove costly.  Many rookie traders think they've bought at the bottom only to find gold plunge lower again.  

The same can be true for selling at the top of a rally - but with gold the formation of a "top" tends to be more predictable - our trading system has been built around this and we successfully predict the swing, making large profits as gold quickly collapses down to the next technical support level.

There is a tendency for traders to feel like they should be in a trade - but sometimes you need to sit on your hands and do nothing.  You should only trade when your winning conditions are present - our tutorials explain clearly what these are - as this is what stacks the odds in your favour.  

Trading for the sake of trading is bound to drain your trading fund quickly!  Trade only when your rules for success are met.

Money management is the key to real success – too many traders risk far too much of their trading pot on each trade, looking for the “big win” rather than gradual and controlled growth through smaller more manageable trades

Avoid these mistakes at all costs!!!  To find out more about how we can help you become an expert at trading online, take a look at our products.

Imagine what life is like when you consistently end up on the winning side!  We’ve been there for many years now and it’s not by chance.  Our tutorial products enable you to learn how to trade successfully and make the step from “retail speculator” to “professional trader”.

To help ensure your chances of success, these seven key recommendations form the background to our technical trading strategy.

You should decide what you are going to trade and stick with it.  Learn everything you can about it in as much detail as possible.  

Most small traders (i.e. the home-based independent speculators) end up losing money when they trade the financial markets.  Academic studies have confirmed that 95% of these traders eventually lose money over time – which is why investment professionals refer to them as “dumb money”.

We’ve all been there at some time in our trading careers.  Some initial successes which hook you and then a run of losing trade after trade and not knowing why, or what you need to do to break the cycle…it doesn’t take long until your funds have expired and you feel stupid!

Our days are spent, alongside watching the market for trading opportunities, making sure we constantly continue to learn more.

Don’t make hasty (often costly) decisions without doing your research first.  We have a routine where first thing every day we perform a top-down analysis of each charted timeframe for gold and identify;

What is the prevailing trend for each timescale?  Where are key support and resistance points? What is our plan for the trading day?  What will cause us to change our plan? What news/outside events could move the markets or cause “spikes” in the gold price?

We plan where we are going to buy or sell, where to place our stop losses and most importantly where to exit each trade.  Then, once the trade is planned and executed, it is critical that we are totally disciplined – we made the trade for a good reason and with solid justification, therefore any changes or adjustments need equally solid justification.

We only trade when the odds are stacked in our favour - we have developed a set of rules which trades must abide by that, when present, means we are likely to win.  You can learn these rules in our tutorial packages.

This sound obvious, of course, but it’s often traders doing exactly the opposite of this that accelerates them along the path to financial ruin.

Conversely, when the trade is running the right way, don’t panic and take your profits at the first sign of a rally stalling.  Sometimes this makes sense when the market is clearly turning or if you’re initial pre-trade assessment wasn’t accurate - but generally once a strong trending move has been identified and a trade is correctly placed, the strategy should be to keep the trade open and trail your stop loss position to lock in profits and ride the trend for as long as possible.

Our long term average winning trade is $52 (or 520 points) and our average losing trade is $11 (or 110 points) – this difference, coupled with a higher percentage of winning trades than losing trades, is why we are successful traders.

If you want to share in our success, check out our products page and get started on the road to professional trading!

To be able to make the key decisions which keep losses small and maximises winning traders you need ice in your veins.  There is a tendency to become too emotionally involved with a trade once it has been placed and to want the trade to succeed too much (don’t “fall in love” with a trade!).

Novice traders tend to let losses run too long, by either widening stops or ignoring signals that the trade is going wrong, in a desperate attempt not to lose money.  

The inevitable result is when you do eventually have to take a loss, that loss is a huge one.  

This means that there is even more pressure to succeed when the next trade is opened - if there even is a next trade….

Removing emotion from trading decisions is a very hard discipline to master, but it gets easier as you become successful.   Following a method over the long-term which has paid dividends gives you confidence - when short-term setbacks occur they no longer affect your judgment.   Our methodical and disciplined trading and years of experience ensure that we never fall prey to emotional trading mistakes.

It is also geared in such a way that we will never lose more than we can stand on any single trade.

You need to find the right level that suits your funds, risk appetite, style and frequency of trading – our tutorial packages can help you find the right level of risk for you.

Whilst trading could (and should) be enjoyable, you need to be aware that it is all too easy to get caught up in the excitement of “the gamble”.  All too often we see punters placing numerous trades each day or multiple markets, placing far too many trades that haven’t been planned just to get the “buzz” from being in the game.

Overtrading means more money is lost on commissions and spreads and the likelihood of losing is higher as trades are more frequent.  

We therefore only enter the market when our winning rules and met and low risk trading set ups emerge – with our help you can do this too.

When we suffer the inevitable losses, we never jump straight back in to the market in an attempt to put things right – it rarely works and, if it does, it’s usually more luck than judgement.

Accept that losses are just as much a part of trading as winning.  You need to be able to deal with losses without allowing them to cloud your judgement – we know this is sometimes hard, especially after a run of heavy losses.  If you’ve followed the other tips in this article, you shouldn’t be getting too many big losses in the future anyway!

Always step away from the market after a loss and reassess.  Regroup, plan your next trade and re-enter only when there is a setup on the table which fits your trading strategy.

Thank you for reading! If you'd like more trading insights or would like to become successful at online trading, please sign-up.