Good afternoon Subscribers,

That’s three wins in a row over the past week or so, marking a really strong finish to February and start to March.  Let’s take a quick look at today’s trade…

We entered this trade in the early hours – 3:12am on the GKFX clock, at 1326 – with our stop at 1329.6 and a target of 1319. 
​
The chart below is the daily – we’ve got the 20-day Moving Average at 1329 and the 50-day at 1327, converging to form an area of resistance.  This put our automated trading algorithm on alert for a reversal set up.

​On the hourly chart below we’ve added the Fibonacci Retracement from the 1341 high to the 1302 low.  Notice that the 61.8 level is 1326.2 – add that to the area of resistance we mention above, and it would seem like a short at 1326 with a stop just above 1329 would be a good trade.

Also notice on the hourly chart above that our target of 13.19 sits just above 38.2 support level of 1317.  On the basis that the 50% level gives way, price should reach 1317.
​
The next chart we have below is the 15m – notice here how the 3am bar makes a higher-high whilst he RSI high is lower than earlier highs, giving us bearish RSI divergence.

​Now, of course this bar is in formation between 3am – 3:15am and so the divergence hadn’t formed when we pulled the trigger at 3:12am – had it?

The chart above shows the 5m chart – notice how we’ve got the same RSI divergence setting up.  On this timeframe it’s the 3:05am candle which climbs up to make the new high and therefore ensuring that, no matter what, there will be RSI divergence on the 15m also – giving us a great place to enter.

This one took a little while to move in our direction – but as you can see from the charts above, price rolled over as expected and moved towards our target.  We jumped out a little earlier than planned as the delay in price falling has led to moving averages on the 15m and hourly chart moving towards price to near our target.  We felt this would (and actually it has) build support around 1320 which may lead to a bounce.  We’d rather bag the points than hold out in hope where we’re this close.

We’re currently flat and waiting for our next set up.
​
Thanks as always for following us.

Good morning Subscribers,

Another winner yesterday – a quick “in and out” for 50 points.  Let’s take a quick step through…this case provides a great example of how we use information from multiple timeframes to set up a winning trade, in this instance with signals from the 4-hour chart all the way down to an expertly timed entry from the 1-minute chart.

The first chart below is the 4-hour.  Our trade was triggered at 17:21 GKFX time (2hrs ahead of the UK) – notice on this chart where the 13:00 4hr bar closed…right on the line of the 100% fib retracement level, effectively making a double-bottom with the low on 8th Feb.  Because this is on the 4-hour, it will weigh heavily on the lower timeframes.  Also notice RSI is oversold.  So we’re now expecting some sort of bounce.  It’s also worth noting the proximity to the 1300 level…round numbers such as these tend to form natural support & resistance levels.  Again, another clue that a bounce is due.

​The next chart is the hourly.  In the lead up to our entry there is very strong bullish RSI divergence, with some choppy price action in the 3 hours leading up to our trade.

​Similar again on the 15m chart below – bullish RSI divergence and then choppy price action near a strong support point from a higher timeframe (remember what we saw on the 4H) is a strong indicator that we’re going to see the reversal soon.

So far, our “clues” have been a clear area of support encountered on the 4H (double-bottom + 1300 natural support level), backed up by strong bullish RSI divergence on the 1H and 15m charts.  In these scenarios where there are multiple indicators from higher timeframes weighing down we tend to look to the very short timeframe charts such as the 5m or even the 1m to get our trigger...which was the case here.

The next two charts are the 5m and 1m
​
On the 5m below, notice how prior to our entry there is very short-term bullish RSI divergence.  Price rallies, but it’s not very strong and soon collapses back to around 1305.  This has lifted RSI higher and so sets up the potential for a continuation of that divergence if price makes a lower low.  We were waiting for that to form to enter.

​On the 1m chart below you can see the same pattern – bullish RSI divergence from around 14:15 followed by a short rally.  We’ve marked our entry on the close of the 17:20 candle…as soon as price broke below the previous lows but posted an RSI low higher than previous lows we knew that it would lead to a continuation of the RSI divergence on the higher timeframe and so was a great place to take an entry a little bit ahead of anyone else.

Another solid win and a great start to March after a profitable February.
​
Thank you, as always, for following us! We’re currently flat, waiting for our next set up.

Good afternoon Subscribers,

Our trailing stop was triggered at 1327.2 so we managed to bag an extra 20 points by using the trailing stop on this occasion.  So, from set up to exit let’s take a look at today’s trade.

Our automated trading system triggered in the early hours at 03:08 GKFX time, which is 2hrs ahead of the UK.  Automation has so many benefits for us – it takes the emotion out of the decision making and allows us to trade around the clock, so our overseas subscribers in different time-zones also get trade alerts during their trading day.
​
Let’s first look at the set up.  The chart below is a zoomed-in 4H chart – notice where the 200-bar Moving Average is (the red line) at the point we opened (circled in white)…right around 1336.  We’ve also got the 38.2 green fib level at 1336, so a good place to expect a reversal.   Also take note of where the 50-bar Moving Average is (the orange line), just shy of 1339 – this is what was used for our stop.

​The 1H chart below shows that around the same area of our entry we’ve also got the 20hr Moving Average (the green line) providing resistance around 1336.

​On the 15M chart below, we show a new Fibonacci retracement in white – from the 1341 high yesterday to the 1330 low.  The levels on this one were quite close together (which incidentally you can see how that congested price movement through this morning) – but because of the resistance levels mentioned earlier from the higher timeframe charts, you can also see additional weight added to those with the 50% and 61.8% levels from this fib retracement around 1335-1337.

​This trade was triggered off of the 5-minute chart, which you can see below.  Given the levels of resistance outlined in the higher-level charts, when a clear-as-day shooting star was formed on the 5M with price failing to close above the 50% fib level, and also with RSI having entered the overbought zone, we took that as the signal to enter.  Our stop was at 1339.5 above the 50-bar MA on the 4H and we set our target at 1329.2.

After a short climb higher to the 61.8 fib level, price quite quickly reversed in our direction – it’s reassuring when you get early confirmation – finding support at the 23.6 fib level.  This area coincided with the 50-bar MA on the 15M and the 50-hr MA on the 1H.
​
As the morning unfolded we had a rising head-and-shoulders pattern form on the 15m, along with the triangle pattern shown in the chart below.  When price broke out of the triangle we put you subscribers on alert that we were changing strategy – initially bringing our stop to below our entry and pushing our target out to give us some time to react if price fell sharply as we wanted to switch to a trailing stop at 1330 when the head and shoulders patter broke.

​Our prediction came true a couple of hours later with price falling sharply.  We switched to trailing stops, again letting you guys know, and watched as price went beyond our initial target to bag an extra 20 points.

​We’re now flat, waiting for the next set up and looking forward to another winning trade!

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          NEUTRAL/BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BULLISH

We noted in our last update that gold was falling precariously close to support at 1233-1235 and that a break of this level would likely see an acceleration to the downside.

Gold broke through the support trendline on 3 July and did indeed fall sharply, however the price found support at 1205 and has since bounced back strongly.  The gold price is currently just below 1250 and has broken back though the trendline, however the price has arrived at the 50 DMA which could provide some resistance, with further resistance at the Fib levels just above 1250.

We feel that it is likely that the rally in gold is near an end and the next leg down will probably begin from around the 1250 area.  The price did make a “lower low” at 1205 and a “lower high” here (anywhere below 1295) will be seen as confirmation of the bearish case.  A break below 1200 should see a rapid decline back towards the low 1100s.

Equities remain in favour, with the rally showing no signs of abating.  Any sell offs continue to be seen as buying opportunities, with the Dow very near all time highs around 21,600 and the S&P at 2,470.

The rebound in oil continues after the dramatic sell off in May and June that saw a low of $42 a barrel, with the price of a barrel of oil now trading near $47.  It remains well shy of the highs around $55 at the start of 2017.

Support can be found at 1242, 1235-1237, 1228, 1214, 1200, 1193, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is increasingly likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
​
Resistance can be found at 1249-1253, 1259, 1265, 1275, 1280, 1288 and 1296-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1296-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 NEUTRAL/BEARISH

In our last update we commented that the strongly bearish shooting star candlestick on the daily chart on 14 June 2017 could be the prelude to a protracted sell off that could see gold sell off all the way back down below 1200 again.

Since then, there has solid follow through selling and gold is very close to initial support at 1233-1235 (the convergence of the uptrend line and 200 day Moving Average).  Gold has yet again failed to break out above the 2011 downtrend line and remains below the 20 and 50 day Moving Averages.

The monthly chart for June is particularly bearish and we would not be surprised at all to see gold fall back to test 1174 or even 1121, with a break of 1233 likely to see an acceleration to the downside.

Equities continue to surge higher, with any sell offs being seen as buying opportunities, with the Dow at all time highs around 21,400 and the S&P at 2,430.

 Oil has bounced sharply after a dramatic sell off that saw a low of $42 a barrel and is now trading above $45, still well shy of the highs around $55 at the start of 2017.

Support can be found at 1235-1237, 1228, 1214, 1200, 1193, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is increasingly likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.

Resistance can be found at 1253, 1259, 1265, 1275, 1280, 1288 and 1296-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1296-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                         NEUTRAL/BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BEARISH

Following the entirely unsurprising announcement of another interest rate hike by the Fed, Gold sold off sharply, giving a very bearish candlestick on the daily chart that is eerily similar to that printed in early November 2016 following the US election.

This could well be the start of another protracted sell off that could see gold sell off all the way back down to 1200 again – if today’s follow through selling pressure is anything to go by then this looks a good bet.

Gold has yet again failed to break out above the 2011 downtrend line and has broken below the 20 and 50 day Moving Averages.  The 200 day MA at 1240 will provide a key test of gold’s direction of travel and a break below will suggest a test of the upward sloping trendline at 1228 as a minimum.

The recent surge in inflation both in the UK and US has not yet provided a boost to gold, however this may be due to the prospects of further interest rate hikes being dampened following recent weak US data.

Equities have surged higher in recent trading sessions, with the Dow at all time highs around 21,300 and the S&P at 2,420.

Oil has corrected sharply in recent weeks and is now below $45 a barrel after making highs around $55 a barrel at the start of 2017.

Support can be found at 1251, 1240, 1228, 1214, 1200, 1193, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is increasingly likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
​
Resistance can be found at 1265, 1275, 1280, 1288 and 1296-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1296-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH


Gold ran into solid resistance at the 200 day MA at 1263 last week and has spent the past 9 trading sessions selling off steadily, following some strong economic data and a rising likelihood, now near certain, of a US rate hike in March.

This, coupled with the fact that other major currencies are far from commencing the tightening cycle has meant that the dollar has surged and the approach of the end of gold’s traditional seasonal strong start to the year has also seen gold under pressure.

Gold is in danger of dropping back toward support at 1180, particularly if we see a strong NFP jobs report tomorrow.

Gold is now back below all the major daily moving averages (20,50 and 200) and until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at approximately 1292 and moving slowly lower.

The gold chart still looks very similar to last year and we would therefore expect a top to be put in place this month – as it stands it appears that the top has been put in at 1263.

Equities have corrected a little in recent trading sessions after becoming very overextended, with the Dow now back at 20,880 and the S&P at 2,365 after surging to new all time highs last week.
 
Oil has corrected sharply in the last few sessions and is now back below $50 a barrel after rebounding strongly from the 2016 lows below $30 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1203, 1198, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
​
Resistance can be found at 1216-1220, 1225, 1244-1246, 1263, 1280 and 1298-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1298-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH


Gold found support at 1216 last week after a short and shallow correction and has rallied back up to the resistance zone at 1244-1246 this week at the 200 week MA.

The gold price is currently in a choppy sideways pattern bounded by 1216 at the bottom and 1244 at the top.  Any move below 1215 should see an acceleration to the downside, with 1180 the first target and any breakout above 1245 will see a move towards 1262 in the first instance.

Gold remains above the 20 and 50 day moving averages but below the key 200 day moving average, currently at 1261, and until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at approximately 1312 and moving slowly lower.

We are in a seasonally strong period for gold and the chart looks eerily similar to last year.  We would therefore expect a top to be put in place between now and mid-March.

Equities continue to power higher, with the Dow now well above 20,700 and the S&P above 2,350.  This would usually be bearish for gold, though the uncertainty around Donald Trump’s presidency is keeping interest in the yellow metal strong.

Oil remains in an uptrend, having rebounded strongly from the 2016 lows below $30 a barrel and is now trading above $54 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1231, 1226, 1216-1222, 1207, 1198, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The late 2016 sell off and rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.

Resistance can be found at 1244-1246, 1262, 1280, 1300 and1317.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1317 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.