LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          NEUTRAL/BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BULLISH

We noted in our last update that gold was falling precariously close to support at 1233-1235 and that a break of this level would likely see an acceleration to the downside.

Gold broke through the support trendline on 3 July and did indeed fall sharply, however the price found support at 1205 and has since bounced back strongly.  The gold price is currently just below 1250 and has broken back though the trendline, however the price has arrived at the 50 DMA which could provide some resistance, with further resistance at the Fib levels just above 1250.

We feel that it is likely that the rally in gold is near an end and the next leg down will probably begin from around the 1250 area.  The price did make a “lower low” at 1205 and a “lower high” here (anywhere below 1295) will be seen as confirmation of the bearish case.  A break below 1200 should see a rapid decline back towards the low 1100s.

Equities remain in favour, with the rally showing no signs of abating.  Any sell offs continue to be seen as buying opportunities, with the Dow very near all time highs around 21,600 and the S&P at 2,470.

The rebound in oil continues after the dramatic sell off in May and June that saw a low of $42 a barrel, with the price of a barrel of oil now trading near $47.  It remains well shy of the highs around $55 at the start of 2017.

Support can be found at 1242, 1235-1237, 1228, 1214, 1200, 1193, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is increasingly likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
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Resistance can be found at 1249-1253, 1259, 1265, 1275, 1280, 1288 and 1296-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1296-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 NEUTRAL/BEARISH

In our last update we commented that the strongly bearish shooting star candlestick on the daily chart on 14 June 2017 could be the prelude to a protracted sell off that could see gold sell off all the way back down below 1200 again.

Since then, there has solid follow through selling and gold is very close to initial support at 1233-1235 (the convergence of the uptrend line and 200 day Moving Average).  Gold has yet again failed to break out above the 2011 downtrend line and remains below the 20 and 50 day Moving Averages.

The monthly chart for June is particularly bearish and we would not be surprised at all to see gold fall back to test 1174 or even 1121, with a break of 1233 likely to see an acceleration to the downside.

Equities continue to surge higher, with any sell offs being seen as buying opportunities, with the Dow at all time highs around 21,400 and the S&P at 2,430.

 Oil has bounced sharply after a dramatic sell off that saw a low of $42 a barrel and is now trading above $45, still well shy of the highs around $55 at the start of 2017.

Support can be found at 1235-1237, 1228, 1214, 1200, 1193, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is increasingly likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.

Resistance can be found at 1253, 1259, 1265, 1275, 1280, 1288 and 1296-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1296-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                         NEUTRAL/BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BEARISH

Following the entirely unsurprising announcement of another interest rate hike by the Fed, Gold sold off sharply, giving a very bearish candlestick on the daily chart that is eerily similar to that printed in early November 2016 following the US election.

This could well be the start of another protracted sell off that could see gold sell off all the way back down to 1200 again – if today’s follow through selling pressure is anything to go by then this looks a good bet.

Gold has yet again failed to break out above the 2011 downtrend line and has broken below the 20 and 50 day Moving Averages.  The 200 day MA at 1240 will provide a key test of gold’s direction of travel and a break below will suggest a test of the upward sloping trendline at 1228 as a minimum.

The recent surge in inflation both in the UK and US has not yet provided a boost to gold, however this may be due to the prospects of further interest rate hikes being dampened following recent weak US data.

Equities have surged higher in recent trading sessions, with the Dow at all time highs around 21,300 and the S&P at 2,420.

Oil has corrected sharply in recent weeks and is now below $45 a barrel after making highs around $55 a barrel at the start of 2017.

Support can be found at 1251, 1240, 1228, 1214, 1200, 1193, 1180, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is increasingly likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
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Resistance can be found at 1265, 1275, 1280, 1288 and 1296-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1296-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH


Gold ran into solid resistance at the 200 day MA at 1263 last week and has spent the past 9 trading sessions selling off steadily, following some strong economic data and a rising likelihood, now near certain, of a US rate hike in March.

This, coupled with the fact that other major currencies are far from commencing the tightening cycle has meant that the dollar has surged and the approach of the end of gold’s traditional seasonal strong start to the year has also seen gold under pressure.

Gold is in danger of dropping back toward support at 1180, particularly if we see a strong NFP jobs report tomorrow.

Gold is now back below all the major daily moving averages (20,50 and 200) and until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at approximately 1292 and moving slowly lower.

The gold chart still looks very similar to last year and we would therefore expect a top to be put in place this month – as it stands it appears that the top has been put in at 1263.

Equities have corrected a little in recent trading sessions after becoming very overextended, with the Dow now back at 20,880 and the S&P at 2,365 after surging to new all time highs last week.
 
Oil has corrected sharply in the last few sessions and is now back below $50 a barrel after rebounding strongly from the 2016 lows below $30 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1203, 1198, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
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Resistance can be found at 1216-1220, 1225, 1244-1246, 1263, 1280 and 1298-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1298-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH


Gold found support at 1216 last week after a short and shallow correction and has rallied back up to the resistance zone at 1244-1246 this week at the 200 week MA.

The gold price is currently in a choppy sideways pattern bounded by 1216 at the bottom and 1244 at the top.  Any move below 1215 should see an acceleration to the downside, with 1180 the first target and any breakout above 1245 will see a move towards 1262 in the first instance.

Gold remains above the 20 and 50 day moving averages but below the key 200 day moving average, currently at 1261, and until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at approximately 1312 and moving slowly lower.

We are in a seasonally strong period for gold and the chart looks eerily similar to last year.  We would therefore expect a top to be put in place between now and mid-March.

Equities continue to power higher, with the Dow now well above 20,700 and the S&P above 2,350.  This would usually be bearish for gold, though the uncertainty around Donald Trump’s presidency is keeping interest in the yellow metal strong.

Oil remains in an uptrend, having rebounded strongly from the 2016 lows below $30 a barrel and is now trading above $54 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1231, 1226, 1216-1222, 1207, 1198, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The late 2016 sell off and rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.

Resistance can be found at 1244-1246, 1262, 1280, 1300 and1317.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1317 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH


Gold broke through the first downtrend channel line at 1215 at the start of the month and rallied as high as the 200 week MA at 1246, before retracing for the past few days, finding support in the critical 1218-1222 zone.

The gold price is currently around 1230 with markets eagerly awaiting Janet Yellen’s testimony later today for future direction.  Any move below 1218 should see an acceleration to the downside, with 1180 the first target.

Gold remains above the 20 and 50 day moving averages but below the key 200 day moving average, currently at 1263 and until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at 1315 and moving slowly lower.
Oil remains in an uptrend, having rebounded strongly from the 2016 lows below $30 a barrel and is now trading at nearly $54 a barrel.
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Support can be found at 1218-1222, 1207, 1198, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.

Resistance can be found at  1237, 1262, 1280, 1300 and 1317.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1317 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                           BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                         BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                BULLISH


Gold found support last week at 1180 and has rebounded strongly, moving as high as the down trend channel line at 1215 yesterday.

Today has seen a pause and small retracement after a stronger than expected ADP employment number, however the closely watched Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) number will give more of a steer to the market, as will the FOMC statement later this evening.  The ADP employment number has very little correlation with the much more important NFP number and is often a red herring when trying to predict this number.

Gold remains above the 20 and 50 day moving averages but well below the key 200 day moving average, currently at 1265 and until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at 1317 and moving slowly lower.

​Oil remains in an uptrend, having rebounded strongly from the 2016 lows below $30 a barrel and is now trading at nearly $54 a barrel.
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Support can be found at 1198, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.

Resistance can be found at 1214-1216, 1220, 1232, 1262, 1280, 1300 and 1317.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1317 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.

LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND              BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          NEUTRAL/BULLISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                  BEARISH
 
After plunging over $200 following the election of President Trump (yes that's a real thing!), gold has rebounded powerfully in 2017 in a very similar way to January 2016.

Since making a low at 1122 at the end of December, gold has move as high as 1220, breaking above 20 and 50 day Moving Averages, however we remain well below the longer term and closely watched 200 day Moving Average, currently at 1265.

Gold has since started a retracement of the January rally, falling for the past three days and currently trading around 1187 – below the key 1200 level and close to a 38.2% retracement of the 2017 rally.

Until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at 1317 and moving slowly lower.
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Oil remains strong, having rebounded strongly from the 206 lows below $30 a barrel to trade well above $50 a barrel since the end of November 2016 and equity markets remain very strong with the Dow yesterday breaking above the key 20,000 level.  This is particularly bearish for gold, which has moved inversely to equities for the last year or so.

Support can be found at 1183, 1177, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and rejection of the long term down trend line is very bearish for gold and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely.

Resistance can be found at 1191, 1195, 1200, 1208, 1220, 1230, 1262, 1280, 1300 and 1317.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1317 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.