LONG TERM TREND BULLISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND NEUTRAL/BULLISH
SHORT TERM TREND NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND BULLISH
In our last update, we noted that gold had gapped higher at the opening of Asian markets in the New Year, with the price rising as high as 1963 and making a decisive break out of the consolidation triangle that we have been in since the August highs. We also noted that the period up to the end of January is usually a strong period for gold and we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the rally through this period and into February 2021.
Since that initial burst higher, gold has reversed sharply and retested the key 200 day Moving Average at 1840, at one point actually breaking briefly below that level. The price has now stabilised and is attempting to move higher from this level of support – a tentative uptrend channel has been formed on a very short term time frame, though the bounce in the dollar will need to be watched carefully, as further strength could see selling pressure return to gold and another test of the 200 day Moving Average.
It should be noted that a decisive break of this key support level will likely see a return to the 1770 region and potentially a test of the bottom of the downtrend channel at 1700.
Gold is now trading just below the shorter term 50 and 89 day Moving Averages and the bulls will need to reclaim these levels which are now short term resistance. The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1884 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1866. As stated above, the 200 day Moving Average at 1840 is now the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.
Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis. As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.
The Dow is currently at 31022 and within striking distance of the all time high of 31259 set a few days ago and the S&P 500 is currently at 3804, just below the new all-time high of 3831, achieved a few days ago.
Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading close to $54 a barrel for the first time since March. The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months. Our target of $55 is almost within touching distance.
In gold, support can be found at 1850, 1840, 1836, 1828, 1817, 1800, 1770 and 1700. In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.
Short term resistance can be found at 1866, 1884, 1900, 1930, 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080. Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND NEUTRAL/BULLISH
SHORT TERM TREND NEUTRAL
VERY SHORT TERM TREND BULLISH
In our last update, we noted that gold had gapped higher at the opening of Asian markets in the New Year, with the price rising as high as 1963 and making a decisive break out of the consolidation triangle that we have been in since the August highs. We also noted that the period up to the end of January is usually a strong period for gold and we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the rally through this period and into February 2021.
Since that initial burst higher, gold has reversed sharply and retested the key 200 day Moving Average at 1840, at one point actually breaking briefly below that level. The price has now stabilised and is attempting to move higher from this level of support – a tentative uptrend channel has been formed on a very short term time frame, though the bounce in the dollar will need to be watched carefully, as further strength could see selling pressure return to gold and another test of the 200 day Moving Average.
It should be noted that a decisive break of this key support level will likely see a return to the 1770 region and potentially a test of the bottom of the downtrend channel at 1700.
Gold is now trading just below the shorter term 50 and 89 day Moving Averages and the bulls will need to reclaim these levels which are now short term resistance. The 89 day Moving Average is now at 1884 and the 50 day Moving Average at 1866. As stated above, the 200 day Moving Average at 1840 is now the key support level that must hold to keep the bull case alive.
Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis. As good news on vaccine development continues to arise on a regular basis, equities have pulled back a little but remain within striking distance of all-time highs.
The Dow is currently at 31022 and within striking distance of the all time high of 31259 set a few days ago and the S&P 500 is currently at 3804, just below the new all-time high of 3831, achieved a few days ago.
Oil prices have recovered strongly since testing $34 at the start of November and are now trading close to $54 a barrel for the first time since March. The chart still looks very bullish and we expect oil prices to rally further over the coming months. Our target of $55 is almost within touching distance.
In gold, support can be found at 1850, 1840, 1836, 1828, 1817, 1800, 1770 and 1700. In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price would suggest a move towards 2,100 early this year is likely.
Short term resistance can be found at 1866, 1884, 1900, 1930, 1950, 1970, 2000, 2020 and 2080. Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1970 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.