This morning gold is testing the lower boundary at 1286, suggesting a downside breakout could be imminent, however the trading is light and volumes are low. Equities, oil and the dollar are all virtually flat, though a slew of data from the US later in the session may see some life return to markets.
The future direction of gold will be dependant on the trading direction of the dollar and whether equities can break out above stiff resistance and continue to make new all time highs.
Support can be found at 1285-1288, 1278, 1273, 1267, 1250-1255, 1237-1240, 1220-1225, 1210, 1200 and 1180. A break of 1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to 1000-1050 in the short term, though this now looks unlikely unless we break below 1250.
Resistance can be found at 1304-1305, 1309, 1314-1315, 1319-1322, 1330-1332, 1340-1342, 1352-1354, 1392-1395, 1400, 1420 and 1435. The impulsive breakout above the first down trend line on the weekly chart suggests an end to the intermediate term down trend, however the 65 week MA must be broken before a significant rally can develop.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the triangle consolidation in more detail and our thoughts for gold's next move.