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Gold Market Update - 3rd May

3/5/2013

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Gold moved higher all day yesterday, even though the dollar surged higher on the back of the ECB rate cut as expected and the US weekly jobless claims were the lowest reported in 5 years.

Overnight, gold has climbed steadily higher and is now back within the 1475-1485 resistance area that has held the price for the past week.

If the market can break out of this resistance zone, 1500 is the next target and should be reached quickly, with 1525 then coming back into play.  For now, however, the price remains within this solid resistance area.

One important technical point to note is that the price has moved above the 20 DMA overnight.  This has capped gold's rallies for the past week and pressured gold to move lower - if the market can sustain this break and close above the 20 DMA, many traders will take this as a sign that higher prices are ahead.

Oil has bounced back powerfully towards $94 and equities continue moving higher, suggesting economic recovery and inflation.  However, all of the recent data suggests a very weak economic picture, though if the markets are rising in anticipation of further economic stimulus, the dollar should be signalling this with more pronounced weakness.

It is difficult to ascertain the "big picture" trends at the moment, the markets appear to signal deflation one week and inflation the next, with no clear trend emerging in the dollar to indicate which way the economy is going - perhaps the ambiguous statement from the FOMC this week encapsulates this uncertainty succinctly.

Today's video looks at yesterday's trading in more detail and our strategy for our next trade.

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