INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND NEUTRAL
In our last update, we commented that there were several signs of weakness inherent in the gold market at the moment and we suggested that a retest of support at 1182 now seemed likely.
Since that update, gold has bounced around in a narrow $20 range between 1189 and 1209 with a slight downward bias, however our 1182 target has not yet been reached.
A break below 1175 would suggest another test of 1160 and if this level were to fail, a return to the low 1100s would be likely in the short term.
At present, the price still remains well below all of the major moving averages, which are all pointed sharply lower. The 50 day Moving Average is currently at 1216 and will provide initial resistance, together with the 200 day Moving Average at 1287 and the 89 day Moving Average at 1249.
We have stated several times in our previous reports that support for equities remains strong and we expected new all time highs later this year. After making new all time highs last week, this week the Dow has consolidated just below 26,000, as has the S&P 500 taking stock just below the 2,900 level. This does not look like the end of the rally.
The Dow is currently at 25,950, just below the all time high of 26,167, with the S&P 500 currently at 2,877, just shy of the all time high of 2,916.
Oil found some resistance just below $71 a barrel and has retraced slightly to currently trading around $67 a barrel.
Support can be found at 1189, 1182, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045. The recent sell off is bearish for gold in the long term time frame and suggests a move towards the 2015 lows at 1045 is becoming more likely.
Short term resistance can be found at 1207, 1214, 1218, 1233, 1265, 1273, 1278, 1284, 1292, 1302 and 1310. Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1360 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.