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Gold Market Update - 9th Mar

9/3/2017

4 Comments

 
LONG TERM TREND                            BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND                          BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND                 BEARISH


Gold ran into solid resistance at the 200 day MA at 1263 last week and has spent the past 9 trading sessions selling off steadily, following some strong economic data and a rising likelihood, now near certain, of a US rate hike in March.

This, coupled with the fact that other major currencies are far from commencing the tightening cycle has meant that the dollar has surged and the approach of the end of gold’s traditional seasonal strong start to the year has also seen gold under pressure.

Gold is in danger of dropping back toward support at 1180, particularly if we see a strong NFP jobs report tomorrow.

Gold is now back below all the major daily moving averages (20,50 and 200) and until gold can break the long term down trend line, last tested after the US election result and unbroken for 6 years, we remain bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes.  This line is currently at approximately 1292 and moving slowly lower.

The gold chart still looks very similar to last year and we would therefore expect a top to be put in place this month – as it stands it appears that the top has been put in at 1263.

Equities have corrected a little in recent trading sessions after becoming very overextended, with the Dow now back at 20,880 and the S&P at 2,365 after surging to new all time highs last week.
 
Oil has corrected sharply in the last few sessions and is now back below $50 a barrel after rebounding strongly from the 2016 lows below $30 a barrel.

Support can be found at 1203, 1198, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045.  The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
​
Resistance can be found at 1216-1220, 1225, 1244-1246, 1263, 1280 and 1298-1300.  Gold needs to break the key resistance level at 1298-1300 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.
4 Comments
Joe
16/4/2017 05:03:37 pm

On March 9, 2017 you wrote that Gold: "VERY SHORT TERM TREND" is "BEARISH". Since then Gold has risen over $60! If we term a month as a very short time then it has not been bearish at all. How can one be sure that what you guys say is reliable? When have you not updated this projection since then? I ask this because I was interested in your service but then I ask myself it is reliable...is it worth it?

Reply
jyothish link
15/5/2018 12:17:43 pm

Drawing trend lines is one of the few easy techniques that really WORK. Prices respect a trend line, or break through it resulting in a massive move. Drawing good trend lines is the MOST REWARDING skill.

The problem is, as you may have already experienced, too many false breakouts. You see trend lines everywhere, however not all trend lines should be considered. You have to distinguish between STRONG and WEAK trend lines.

One good guideline is that a strong trend line should have AT LEAST THREE touching points. Trend lines with more than four touching points are MONSTER trend lines and you should be always prepared for the massive breakout!

This sophisticated software automatically draws only the strongest trend lines and recognizes the most reliable chart patterns formed by trend lines...

==> http://www.forextrendy.com?kdhfhs93874

Chart patterns such as "Triangles, Flags and Wedges" are price formations that will provide you with consistent profits.

Before the age of computing power, the professionals used to analyze every single chart to search for chart patterns. This kind of analysis was very time consuming, but it was worth it. Now it's time to use powerful dedicated computers that will do the job for you:

==> http://www.forextrendy.com?kdhfhs93874

Reply
jyothish chowdary
18/5/2018 07:47:49 am

Drawing trend lines is one of the few easy techniques that really WORK. Prices respect a trend line, or break through it resulting in a massive move. Drawing good trend lines is the MOST REWARDING skill.

The problem is, as you may have already experienced, too many false breakouts. You see trend lines everywhere, however not all trend lines should be considered. You have to distinguish between STRONG and WEAK trend lines.

One good guideline is that a strong trend line should have AT LEAST THREE touching points. Trend lines with more than four touching points are MONSTER trend lines and you should be always prepared for the massive breakout!

This sophisticated software automatically draws only the strongest trend lines and recognizes the most reliable chart patterns formed by trend lines...

==> http://www.forextrendy.com?kdhfhs93874

Chart patterns such as "Triangles, Flags and Wedges" are price formations that will provide you with consistent profits.

Before the age of computing power, the professionals used to analyze every single chart to search for chart patterns. This kind of analysis was very time consuming, but it was worth it. Now it's time to use powerful dedicated computers that will do the job for you:

==> http://www.forextrendy.com?kdhfhs93874

Reply
kumar
23/6/2018 05:25:05 am

Let me explain the basic principle how most Forex systems work. They are tuned up to work in a specific market condition. They often make money in a trending market, but loose money in a choppy market. It is not a problem as long as the market is trending and the system is making more money than it loses. Such a system can be profitable for several months and you would be happy with it. BUT...

PREPARE FOR THE WORST...

Market change over time. A well designed system starts with trend analysis to stay away from potentially losing trades. There are two problems of how a Forex system recognizes the trend.

PROBLEM: FALSE "STRONG TREND" INDICATION.

The system responds only to immediate price action. An explosive price movement that is usually the result of news release is tempting people to jump in and make a profit. It looks like a "strong trend", but what usually happens next is a hard fall.

To avoid falling into this trap, check for the SOLUTION to find a REAL trend:

==> http://www.forextrendy.com?nsjjd92834

SECOND PROBLEM: TREND RELIABILITY

Most systems use various indicators to determine the trend. Actually, there is nothing bad about using indicators. One Simply Moving Average can do the job. The problem comes with the question: "Is the market trending NOW?" Whether the market is trending or not trending is not like black and white. The correct question is: "How well the market is trending?"

And here we have something called TREND RELIABILITY.

Trends exist and they can be traded up and down for a profit. You have to focus only on the most reliable market trends. "Forex Trendy" is a software solution to find the BEST trending currency pairs, time frames and compute the trend reliability for each Forex chart:

==> http://www.forextrendy.com?nsjjd92834
Let me explain the basic principle how most Forex systems work.market. It is not a problem as long as the market is trending and the system is making more money than it loses. Such a system can be profitable for several months and you would be happy with it. BUT...

PREPARE FOR THE WORST...

Market change over time. A well designed system starts with trend analysis to stay away from potentially losing trades. There are two problems of how a Forex system recognizes the trend.

PROBLEM: FALSE "STRONG TREND" INDICATION.

The system responds only to immediate price action. An explosive price movement that is usually the result of news release is tempting people to jump in and make a profit. It looks like a "strong trend", but what usually happens next is a hard fall.

To avoid falling into this trap, check for the SOLUTION to find a REAL trend:

==> http://www.forextrendy.com?nsjjd92834

SECOND PROBLEM: TREND RELIABILITY

Most systems use various indicators to determine the trend. Actually, there is nothing bad about using indicators. One Simply Moving Average can do the job. The problem comes with the question: "Is the market trending NOW?" Whether the market is trending or not trending is not like black and white. The correct question is: "How well the market is trending?"

And here we have something called TREND RELIABILITY.

Reply



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