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The Roadmap to New Highs in 2013

7/4/2013

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Gold has been in a bull market for the last 12 years, with year on year gains in every calendar year since 2001.  We believe that this bull market has a lot further to go, though we expect a top of some significance in 2013, year 13 of the rally, being a Fibonacci number.

After a correction, we then expect the gold price to move higher again in another multi-year rally, taking us to a major top in 2022, a 21 year super rally in precious metals the like of which the world has never seen before.

It is clear from the chart below that gold makes a cyclical top every 22 months.  The last such major top was in September 2011, giving us our next cyclical top in July 2013.

Trade Gold Online - Gold Makes a new Top Every 22 Months
From an Elliot Wave perspective, we are in a Wave 4 corrective pattern following the Wave 3 top in September 2011.  

It is now clear, after 18 months of corrective action in gold, that the Wave 4 pattern is a complex 3-3-5 correction, made up of two linked ABC corrections together with a final 5 wave impulse decline.

We are approaching the end of the final 5 wave decline, our best guess is that we have just started Wave v of 5, the final decline.  The chart below sets out this Elliott Wave count in detail.
Trade Gold Online - Wave Count of the Last 18 Months
This means that we still have a major Wave 5 rally to complete the pattern, with the first impulse move of this 5th Wave to take us to the cyclical high in July 2013.

After finally making a bottom, we expect the price to move sharply higher over the next 4 months to arrive at our projected top in July 2013 at around $1,900, potentially forming a large “double top” on the charts.

We then expect a correction to unfold in gold and silver, taking gold prices back to $1,700-$1,750 before the next major rally begins, Wave 3 of 5, taking gold far beyond $2,000 in the next few years.

It is often the case that Wave 5 in a commodities rally will be the strongest and most powerful wave, lasting longer than even Wave 3 and often extending to  a more complex 7 wave structure.

Keep up to date with our market analysis by visiting the gold trading blog daily.  If you are an active gold trader, try out our 2-week free trial to trade alongside our pros and get access to our trades in real-time to help you trade gold online with success!

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